The List Manager on Trade Radio

[Neil Appleby]

Yesterday on Trade Radio, Terry Wallace and Damien Barrett spent quite a lot of time examining Collingwood. Plow (Wallace) basically said that he thought his prediction that Collingwood would fall before we could rise, was pretty well on the mark. Yep he was correct there. At this time last year Wallace in his List Manager Role gave Collingwood a bare pass but suggested the future was very bright. 2015 and beyond would be looking terrific for Collingwood. He wasn't alone, many other footy experts were saying the same thing. From memory, I think Mike Sheehan was the only person who wasn't so bullish on Collingwood's list.

One year on and Wallace has changed his tune. Yesterday he made the following points:

•Nathan Buckley is going to have a very difficult 18 months
•Players have left the club and they don't have the experience any more
•They enter season 2015 with Beams and Lumumba gone and Macaffer and Sharenberg out for the year.
•Its going to be a difficult time. They were brave to move senior players on but buying time at footy clubs is difficult especially at Collingwood.
•Broomhead, Langdon, Grundy, Kennedy, Sharenberg, Freeman, Adams: we really don't know where these players are. Potentially they could all be very good footy players but they may not be.
•Then we look at the second group: Witts, Fasolo, Karnezis, Williams and Seedsman. These players are in their early 20s and may well be good players but we don't know if they are going to be the next group of young stars. That's 12 players who are potentially really good players but we don't know if these blokes will develop.
•Then we look at the holes in the list: Reid, where does he play? Can they get him right? Is he forward or back? I see him as a back. Buckley says 'we have to get him right and work out the strategy for him.'
•Key positions: Frost is a really nice player 2nd or 3rd tall rather than number one. Brown and Keeffe we don't know if Brown's body will hold up. Keeffe is up and down. His ability to defend is OK but his ability to make decisions when he has the ball is shaky. Out of that lot, if Reid is not there the back line looks too shaky.
Forwards: Will White make it? Lynch is gone. They tried to get Clark so they know it's an issue with only Cloke the big tall.
•Swanny's just about cooked. He's been a star of the game, but he's just about cooked. He'll still kick goals and he's too good to fall right off the pace but he is no longer a target for opposition clubs. Clubs go after Pendlebury and now with Beams gone, they'll target Sidebottom. Sidey took big steps forward this year, but there is an enormous hole in the midfield when Sidey is targeted and with Beams, Ball & Lumumba gone. They can only replace these guys with kids and kids, (Adams, Kennedy) are up and down.
•Rucks: Witts and Grundy are babies and Clark was going to help here.
Now it is precarious about where they sit and the pressure is right on Nathan Buckley.
•Drafting: with pick 4 they need to on-trade for a senior player as they did with Jolly and Ball. Someone in the same age bracket as Sidebottom. This won't be easy to achieve. They need to fast track the youngsters but to do this you need a good skeleton, good support. They can't lose experience and then keep drafting kids because it will set them back and take even longer - this is what Melbourne did.
•Future: 2016 is the year I think the talent will blossom but they need bigger bodies like Karnezis. They are light on for size. They'll come out the other side, but it won't be 2015.
•Barrett suggests Collingwood doesn't have a lot of salary cap room. Three players taking a huge chunk: Pendles, Swan and Cloke.
Plow:The problem is they have recruited tiny blokes to help Cloke. Blair was already there and then they brought in Elliott and Kennedy types. They need size. Midfield size and key position size.
Barrett: Pert and Buckley were very bullish until mid 2014. Buckley even went so far on AFL 360 after the Queen's Birthday round, to suggest Collingwood not be dismissed in premiership calculations. Then the whole thing blew up.
Plow: Buckley has confidence in his young players to do the job, but he is more confident than I am. The big question is this, can the Collingwood faithful stick fat?
**I recorded the segment and much of the above is direct quote. Some has been summarised for brevity.

I don't disagree with much of this analysis, but I think a lot of experts are forgetting that Collingwood finished one game out of the eight and were in the eight all year until the final round. This despite the worst injury run in recent memory.

I don't believe the picture is as bad as it's being painted and that goes for many posters here in Nick's. I do think that 2015 will be the year that the coaching panel really starts to earn its money. They need to fast-track the young talent and bring in some experience before the preseason begins. This draft is the most important for years; we've gotta get it spot on.

[Deja Vu]

I'm not so doom and gloom. Get the fitness and injury right and we are competitive. Beams will be a loss but pick 4 and a player may go some way to covering that loss.

Any chance we can get Mitchell out of Sydney in a 3 way trade with Brisbane?

[Museman]

It wasn't doom and gloom, it was honest...what we tried didn't work.

[John Wren]

thanks for taking the time to do the write up.

there is a lot to be apprehensive about and we are at the tipping point. we have a lot of players who show they have the talent and ability but need to cement their place in the team. the beams situation has certainly put a spanner in the works. we need to try to replace like for like if we are to be anywhere near the leading pack in the next two to three years. an untried youngster only serves to strenghten us in the long term.

i'd like to see jt take the next step, broomy and kenno to get more game time. seedsman still has a bit to do to enjoy a good level of consistency and has the toolkit to have a breakout year. sinclair looks like he will take the next step and become the line breaker we need (along with seedsman). karnezsis is an unknown quantity at this point and has been earmarked to be a midfielder at some point. with a solid preseason and we should look forward to seeing him get senior games.

i am quite bullish about our prospects in the coming years and think we will have done well to make finals next year.

[Deja Vu]

I was talking about their 2015 predictions

[jackcass]

Thanks for the write up Neil.

No real surprises in that. Pies are a club on the edge, a few things go right for us in 2015 and we'll rebound. Got a few kids who are getting to that 50 game mark and should start to show more consistency. Balance that with an over reliance in the development of the kids and it'll be an exciting ride.

Happy to go into 2015 as the complete underdog, bring it on!

[Wilko]

I really don't know how 2015 will play out
I don't think anyone really knows too many pieces of the jigsaw puzzle
The club really needs to work overtime developing a strong culture again
and I feel that the players need to drive that
And frankly if you don't want to be at the club and work hard for good coin then &@&@ off
I think we are still seeing the washout from the 2013 Port final..
This is one massive job
Life's never boring been a pies supporter

[thompsoc]

Great write up
Still I would go with more high end draft picks
rather than give good picks for a ready made player.
I think we may get a first and second round pick for beams.
We may get pick 22 for harry.
This would give us 5 picks inside pick 30.
Build a very good team around this with our rebuild efforts
in 2012 and 2103.

[Museman]

[thompsoc]

[Museman]

[jackcass]

[Lazza]

[September Zeros]

[HAL]

There could be more than one purpose.