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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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Post subject: Negative Gearing Spat: Politics Finally Gets Interesting | |
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Sadly, Shorten is dead right, but it's too late for him to start pretending to lead and give a toss, despite Turnbull being mired in a number of destructive Glib policies.
I still think it's best to skip the ALP for a season until they put a non-institutionalist with independent, modern ideas at the helm. But that doesn't take the heat off Turnbull for promulgating classist Glib rubbish.
The Aged wrote: | Independent modelling backs Labor's negative gearing policy
Independent modelling has dented the Turnbull government's attack on Labor's negative gearing policy, finding it will generate billions for the Commonwealth with the vast bulk of revenue coming from just the top 10 per cent of households who negatively gear their properties.
The report's author says the policy would likely slow the pace of house-price growth and boost new housing construction, making it "potentially the biggest housing affordability policy the country has seen."
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull launched a scathing attack on Labor's negative gearing policy on Friday, saying home owners across the country would see the value of the family home "smashed" by the "very blunt, very crude" idea.
In a clear sign his government is preparing to launch a massive scare campaign in the lead-up to the 2016 election over Labor's proposal, which is designed to save $32 billion over a decade, Mr Turnbull warned the policy was "calculated" to reduce the value of all homes.
"The Labor Party's negative gearing policy and its wind-back on the capital gains discount its increase in tax on capital gains is a very dangerous one. It's been very, very poorly thought out," Mr Turnbull said on Friday.
"The consequence of it will be a decline in property prices, every home owner in Australia has a lot to fear from Bill Shorten."
But independent modelling shows there will be "significant" long-term savings from Labor's proposal to quarantine negative gearing to new housing investments from July 2017, eventually raising between $3.5 to $3.9 billion a year.
It also shows Labor's proposal to cut the capital gains tax discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would raise about $2 billion a year in the long term.
It shows the vast majority of savings would be at the expense of the top 10 per cent of earners who negatively gear their properties.
It also estimates that by restricting negative gearing to new housing, the policy would "increase the share of investment housing devoted to newly built housing" by 10 to 20 per cent.
It does not say house prices would drop.
"Our modelling shows that negative gearing benefits high-income families with 52.6 per cent of the benefit going to the top 20 per cent of incomes," the paper says.
"Only 5.2 per cent of benefits go to the bottom 20 per cent of incomes. This result is mostly driven by high-income families being more likely to negatively gear, having larger negatively geared deductions, and a progressive tax system that magnifies the gains for higher income persons.
The modelling was done by the Australian National University's Centre for Social Research and Methods.
It was not commissioned by any political party, organisation or individual.
Associate Professor Ben Phillips, formerly of the well-respected National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), did the modelling for the centre for which he now works.
"Most of the benefit of negative gearing clearly goes to the top 10 per cent, and it's the same for the capital gains tax, by a very large margin," Mr Phillips told Fairfax Media.
Labor unveiled its negative gearing policy last weekend, with Labor leader Bill
Shorten saying it would "level the playing field for first-home buyers" competing with investors and create up to 25,000 new construction jobs.
The Coalition has criticised the policy, saying it will not raise enough money and it will make it harder for owners of existing homes to sell their properties.
Mr Turnbull upped that attack on Friday, saying it will see the prices of all homes decline.
But Mr Shorten returned fire, saying: "This is desperate stuff from the Prime Minister who has broken his promise to provide 'new economic leadership'."
"Malcolm Turnbull's got no plan except Tony Abbott's old plan," he said on Friday.
"He promised to be better than Tony Abbott and respect people's intelligence - today he showed he is no better." |
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/independent-modelling-backs-labors-negative-gearing-policy-20160219-gmyl8o.html _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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No guarantee that this'll be on the agenda again in 2019 if Labor gets the thrashing we expect. I have no love for Shorten, but I'd rather prioritise good policy above punishing cynical, substance-free career politicians like him (plenty of those on both sides, at any rate).
Meanwhile, this Coalition government is still the same government that won in 2013, only with a handful of new faces on the front bench. If we want to send a message, who better to kick out than that mob after just one term? Vote 2 ALP. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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Turnbull has been handcuffed by his own choosing, promising to stick by the party policies that won the election, hence Shorten going after him on same sex marriage, Bill knows that mal agrees with it but he's stuck with party policy until the next election.
What will be interesting to see is if Mal wins the election, will that give him enough clout to start setting the agenda rather than following it and if yes, will he have the guts?
Governing according to the polls creates bad policy, ignoring them completely creates a change of leadership. Pretty neat tightrope to walk. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^David, I guess the idea is much like building a side and drafting younger than topping up with discards and trying to make the finals in vain.
Surely we have to distinguish between a party filling in policy voids with the nearest plausible talk in the electorate, and a party with an actual, serious policy platform. It is not an intelligent tactic to reward a poor leader just because he grabs the odd good policy *we provided* this late in the game. That's because said policy will be piecemeal, not framed in a sustainable set of strategies for the country, and just as likely to be cast aside at the nearest sign of poll pressure.
Note, *we* picked up housing affordability, the technical nonsense of negative gearing economic claims, the damage being done to younger generations, and Howardian middle-upper-class welfare long before Shorten had the kahunas to even consider them as the pressing set of problems they are. I want someone on the ball, not someone we have to drag kicking and screaming to serious solutions.
In contrast, if Shorten had've spent the last while putting a serious platform together which looks beyond the election cycle, and educating the public into it, yet it perhaps can't win yet because it needs time to take root, he would warrant a vote.
As a classic example of gutless following, where was the ALP leading the issue of *international* people movements ten years ago? Even if they had lost votes on it then, they now would be rewarded because everyone can see this is not a peculiar Australian problem, and it is one which requires new regional and international agreements.
Take another area, the commodity/currency cycle. The country should've been geared to optimise tourism and education revenues *right now*, but you have to ready for them with sound policy logic even when every second fool can't see beyond high iron ore prices and the swagger of mining companies and their big-mouthed CEOs.
This holds for almost every single area of policy you care to imagine.
If so, perhaps a protest vote is in order to rid the party of Short on Vision and like-minded institutional ALP types, yet *not reward* the Glib nonsense Turnbull has inherited under sufferance, as Stui argues.
We need to somehow whack the Party of Abbott while still giving the Party of Turnbull a crack at one term *on his own terms*, meanwhile showing no tolerance for the ALP being mere poll-reacting, vacancy fillers. _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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I know you're less keen on them than I am, but I think a Green vote is still the best protest against Labor cowardice. It achieves the ideal balance (in my view) of sending a message to the ALP without rewarding the Libs. And after all, if we're going to kick the ALP for only now getting their shit together on negative gearing, what do we say about the party that not only still hasn't accepted the necessity of going there, but has decided to run a scare campaign on it?
Turnbull may be a closet small-l liberal, environmentally friendly, economically moderate prime minister waiting for an election to bloom (and I'm far from confident on any of those things now), but when he calls a mild attempt to wind back negative gearing 'economic sabotage', I have no reason to believe he doesn't mean every word he says. How is that a sustainable economic vision for the future? _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Yes, very disappointed with Turnbull using a completely fraudulent term like "economic sabotage" in reference to abolishing negative gearing; he could've opposed it "for now" or in some more muted way without upsetting the competition haters in his party, given the cushion over Shorten at the polls.
I would vote Green in protest, but how many anti-competitionists of a different stripe am I giving succour to? I'm not interested in voting against one set of people who hate competition and are holding the nation back (classist middle-aged Glibs, especially), just to vote for another set (dumb Leftists who don't value the productive and creative force of business in vigorous competition, regardless of all those other forms of anti-competition on the right).
I am open to being persuaded, though. _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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Well I was watching channel two the other day (by accident of course!) and he explained his reasoning, made a lot of sense, panic was mentioned, making it worse, I'll think clearer when I'm soberer _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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Well I'll be preferencing Greens last in the senate. If they want power, get it in the house of Reps. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006 Location: Thailand
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Surely their is a compromise. You can negatively gear one house. FFS there are people living in public houses that have 2 and 3 properties. Force them out of Housing commission homes and live in one and negative gear another, so they sell one. Suddenly one lower income family are off the street and another couple enter the housing market. Anyone who has 5 and 6 houses is not going to vote ALP and if they do the chances it will be in a blue ribbon liberal seat anyhow. _________________ Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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Morrigu
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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I'm not voting for any of them - just going to draw a big sad face! _________________ βThe greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.β |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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stui magpie wrote: | Governing according to the polls creates bad policy, ignoring them completely creates a change of leadership. Pretty neat tightrope to walk. |
For sure. That magic combination of intelligence, insight, likability and mongrel. _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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Morrigu wrote: | I'm not voting for any of them - just going to draw a big sad face! |
Think I'll join you _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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think positive wrote: | Morrigu wrote: | I'm not voting for any of them - just going to draw a big sad face! |
Think I'll join you |
Whether you vote or not, a politician is going to get elected.
Might as well be able to say you did or didn't vote for one particular bastard over another rather than just basically saying you'll cop whatever everyone else decides on. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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stui magpie wrote: | think positive wrote: | Morrigu wrote: | I'm not voting for any of them - just going to draw a big sad face! |
Think I'll join you |
Whether you vote or not, a politician is going to get elected.
Might as well be able to say you did or didn't vote for one particular bastard over another rather than just basically saying you'll cop whatever everyone else decides on. |
Ok who will ban puppy farms? That will do me _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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