Never seen a government lose its base so fast

[Wokko]

Julie Bishop's people have been on a year long PR campaign because everyone could see Tony falling over sooner rather than later.

[Tannin]

For the Libs, their best bet is to stick with Abbott for as long as possible - say another full year, and only switch to Turnbull, Morrison, or the Asbestos Witch a few months before the election.

They can't afford to leave it so late that the new leader doesn't have time to regain some popularity with two or three major policy backflips to "prove" that he or she is good for Australia and nothing like Abbott/Hockey - for example, introduce a carbon trading scheme, restore funding to the ABC, and abandon the tertiary education cuts. These will have to be serious, big dollar policy announcements and they will have to be actually implemented - no-one is going to fall for more Liberal feel-good promises after the way that Abbott lied his way into office. This will be hard for them: they have to (a) endure another year under the dysfunctional Abbott-Hockey clowns, and (b) swallow some very large and (to them) nasty-tasting policies, and pretend they like it. Make no mistake, if the new leader doesn't do some serious lurching back towards the centre, he or she will never get traction. If he is content to simply inherit Abbott's hard-right policies, he will inherit Abbott's miserable popularity rating too.

If the Libs switch leaders early, they will be in trouble by the time the election comes around. Abbott is the figurehead and the butt of all the jokes, but the engineroom of public resentment is the government's massive cutbacks and inability to think outside the 1950s framework. The new leader, if they switch now, will surge ahead for a while, but gradually fall back towards disasterville as the impact of the Liberal hard-right policies is felt. They have to hit the election with the new leader looking like a breath of fresh air. If they switch too early, they will give the public too much time to figure out that nothing much has changed and that Mr Morrison / Mr Turnbull / Ms Asbestosis is just Abbott Mark II, withsmaller ears and the same terrible policies.

(Of course they could switch leaders and switch their policy agenda to a mild, sensible centre-right steady-as-she-goes direction, and stay in government forever, but the chances of that happening are between nil and zero.)

For Labor, the best outcome would be for Abbott to stay on and get right royally thumped out of office at the election. Second best would be either a last-minute panic Liberal leadership change, or an early change with plenty of time for the public to realise that the new leader is simply Abbott with smaller ears and the hated Liberal policies haven't changed.

[1061]

The ALP are going to need a Hayden/Hawke type overthrow, I just don't think Shorten is electable as a PM.

[Tannin]

^ Thanks to Rudd, Labor is unable to switch leaders in the normal way. Rudd Mark II, in his paranoia and maniacal self-justification, brought in new rules making a leadership change almost impossible, and in its poll-driven panic, Labor let him do it. Rudd is gone now, but the damage he caused lingers on.

But Shorten isn't unelectable. As things stand, he only has to be Not Tony. Whether being Not Julie or Not Scott will be enough ... wait and see.

In any case, it is absurd to describe the mild, nondescript Shorten as "enelectable" just 18 months after Australia elected the palpably loopy Abbott. If we can elect Abbott, we can elect anyone.

[Tannin]

PS: but I wish things were otherwise. Tony Burke would have been Labor's best choice, and still is their best performer.

[David]

[Culprit]

You don't win elections, you lose them. At the moment and things can change but I doubt it. I will say Abbott is simply unelectable the second time around. The Born to Rule mob are in trouble if they mount a challenge after all the attacks on Labour with the Rudd/Gillard fiasco. They have't really put a budget down, they are finding out how hard it is when you don't control the upper house. We are in for a few painful years because of the Senate make up.

[Lazza]

[partypie]

My sister took part in a phone poll last week and was asked the usual questions on Abbott etc. apparently no one chose Joe Hockey as alternative leader. The other choice was Turnbull. Interestingly one of the questions was about raising the gst and should exempt items such as food be included.

[HAL]

Older sister or younger?

[stui magpie]

[1061]

[Mugwump]

[1061]

[Morrigu]

Tony Abbott declares himself a 'good captain' of the Government as Joe Hockey warns colleagues against complaining about PM

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-30/abbott-declares-himself-a-good-captain-of-the-government/6057484

Tony Abbott has declared himself "a very good captain" of the Government's team, at the end of the most punishing week of his tenure as Prime Minister.

He was in the Victorian town of Colac today, using dairy exporters Bulla Foods as a backdrop to demonstrate how Australians would benefit from the Government's free trade deals.

But he was dogged by leadership questions and was asked why both his Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, and Communications Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, ranked above him in polls on preferred prime minister.

"This is a very strong team," he said. "And one of the reasons why so many members of the team are able to perform so well is because they've got a very good captain.

"It takes a good captain to help all the players of a team to excel."


- oh hang on I think he actually believes this -



Can't argue with this!

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-pms-woes-started-earlier-than-you-think-20150129-130mcx.html