Ladder predictor thread 2014

David · I dare you to try Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda

With round 15 completed, the ladder predictor has become a bit less of a crapshoot. Try it for yourself and see where you have us finishing.

http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

What I'm most interested in is a) whether we look likely to make top 4; and b) how many wins we'll need. First off, here's my prediction:

1. Port Adelaide 18-4 141%
2. Fremantle 18-4 139%
3. Sydney 18-4 135%
4. Hawthorn 17-5 141%
5. Geelong 15-7 112%
6. Collingwood 14-8 113%
7. Adelaide 13-9 113%
8. North Melbourne 13-9 109%

9. Gold Coast 13-9 106%
10. West Coast 12-10 112%
11. Western Bulldogs 8-14 82%
12. Essendon 7-15 96%
13. Richmond 7-15 95%
14. Carlton 7-15 87%
15. GWS 6-16 75%
16. Melbourne 5-17 74%
17. Brisbane 4-18 65%
18. St. Kilda 3-19 60%

OK, so it's looking pretty grim. Unless one of the top 4 teams falls in a heap, we may actually have to go undefeated for the rest of the year to make it (according to my predictions, doing this and beating Hawthorn in the final round would have us a game clear in fourth with a trip to Perth in the first week). In fact, given the logjam of teams in the four spaces below us, we might have our work cut out just making the finals. Beating the Suns next week is obviously an 8-point game, as is our match against West Coast at Subiaco in a few weeks.

On the bright side, should we win our next 8 games (including knocking off two of the premiership favourites in Port and Hawthorn), we'll be in as good a position as any to claim the flag. So, keep dreaming. Smile

GoWoodsmen · Joined: 18 Apr 2005 Location: Australia

I've got us winning 2 more games than you did so had us finishing level with Port Adelaide (they've got a tough draw) but way behind on percentage. I can however see us slipping to 6th as you have predicted. Highly unlikely we drop lower than 6th unless things really turn to crap and the Kangaroos actually take advantage of their marshmallow draw. Gonna be an interesting journey home!

woftam · Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:11 pm

David, I don't know if you have all the points correct, but I think your top 8 order will be pretty close.

What'sinaname · Joined: 29 May 2010 Location: Living rent free

Would need to win a few games by massive margins to get our percentage up another 10-15%. Likely end up 6 or 7 with 5 being a bonus.

Not sure 4th would be a good thing. Despite having a chance to win a game and the week off, we'd likely get smashed by the Hawks which would be soul destroying and almost certainly see us get knocked out of the finals with 2 straight losses.

Damien · Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:42 pm

I just did this, going on gut feeling and had the top 5 all separated only by percentage - with us in 6th spot.

A long way to go in this season and percentage could play a massive part, even though some on here will insist it means nothing. It could mean the difference between a trip to Sydney, Perth or Adelaide this year.

Jezza · 2023 PREMIERS! Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End

I just completed the ladder predictor and the Pies end up in 7th with a win-loss ratio of 13-9 and to play North Melbourne who finished 6th, bearing in mind I may have been harsh on the Pies so I didn't seem biased when realistically doing the final ladder predictor. The only difference between your ladder and mine David is that the Suns make the finals whereas the Crows just miss out.

I pencilled in this week's match against the Gold Coast as a loss so winning this week's game would be a great start for us in surpassing my expectations of where I think the club may end up finishing come the conclusion of the Home and Away season.

Anyway it's one big game of guessing at the moment so who knows what may happen from now to the end of the Home and Away season as injuries, form and luck are all factors that can change quickly as time goes on.

E · Joined: 05 May 2010

Damien · Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:51 am

E · Joined: 05 May 2010

Lazza · Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

Without the use of the ladder predictor, I worked out that Collingwood will have an exceptional development year this season. The future for 2015/16 is incredibly bright. Bring on the sunnies.... Cool

Dave The Man · Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 5:50 pm

Where we are now is about where we finish

themonk · Joined: 02 Mar 2004

David · I dare you to try Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda

Not sure why people are so gloomy about the Gold Coast game. Won't be a walkover, obviously, but one would think it's 50/50 at worst.

HAL · Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:15 pm

Reductionism.

Culprit · Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne

Unless we beat Hawthorn or Freo we will remain where we are. A loss against the french fries could see us struggling to stay in the 8. Every game is a must win now. In saying that IF Ben Reid can get into the squad that makes anything possible.