Jarryd Blair's worth to the side

[King Monkey]

How about I start one. Hopefully to discuss his worth to the side with more detail in mind than goals, possessions, and Supercoach fkn points!!!!!

It's hard to describe in a post what Blair brings to the side, it'd be simpler to state "watch him closely and you'll see it", but I'll try and describe what I see every week. (Probably poorly, but I'll have a crack.)

Firstly, the game has changed.
You can't just say, "HFF in the twos kicked 4 with 21 possies, he's gotta come in for HFF in the ones that only kicked 1 with 11 touches," anymore.
Everyone performs a different role. Every player can't be a ball magnet and a regular multiple goal-kicker, you need a support cast.
Having said that, Blair has popped up a few times this year with his 2 or 3 goals when it's been his turn.

His work off the ball is phenomenal, there are others that are definitely better players when Jarryd O'Blair is in the side. And I'm not just referring to "forward pressure," although his relentless chasing and tackling are certainly some of the attributes he brings to the table.
Goldsack has actually been playing the more advanced role of our "forward pressure specialists". Blair's been the "second man in", if you like.

Watch how many times he's first to the ball or arrives simultaneously but helps someone else get a possession instead of taking it himself, drawing an opponent in the process.
Watch how he runs through dangerous spots making an opponent follow him so as to clear space for others.
Watch him go and shepherd instead of peeling off for an easy handball.
How many times has he been the long bomb target up forward?? Too many, and I'd agree that this scenario is counterproductive for the side, but the times when this occurs are because he's worked so bloody hard to be the only magpie forward of centre after we've flooded.
Have a look at him bobbing up somewhere in the backline because he's worked hard enough to push back and fill space. (Yeah that annoys me too, but it's the modern game and that's what they're asked to do.)

Those that want him to kick more goals - that'd have him spending more time closer to goal and in a position to crumb, thus diminishing his ability to perform some of the aforementioned duties up the ground. And also would leave less room for someone like Elliott to work in who's having a stellar season and the likes of Beams & Swan when they're playing in the forward half.

If you want him to get more possessions - that'd mean going through him more often instead of a Sidebottom or a Beams or a Dwyer. These guys don't win the ball in space by chance, the team as a whole run to certain spots manipulating a loose man where possible. Do we want Blair to be one of those guys that the others work for??


So, it's not a question of whether Player A or B would kick more goals than Blair or gather more possessions or outperform him in Supercoach or DreamTeam............. it's a question of whether Player A or B would perform Blair's role in the side better than Blair.

[Beast]

Lulz, here's a thread I started on BF last year with just about an identical title

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/jarryd-blair-and-his-worth-to-collingwood.1024966/

Thing is Blair's form has deteriorated since then even further.

[King Monkey]

Ha!
Just read through a bit of your link - some of those replies actually summed up what I was trying to say, perhaps a little more efficiently than I put it myself.

You don't rate the role the man plays yourself though Beast??

[Beast]

Nah I don't mate.
The days of honest triers like Blair are over.
The pressure he brings is largely overstated, most of his tackles don't stick, he gets pushed over when he plays in the guts far too often, he does not hit the scoreboard nowhere near enough, lacks pace and isn't a great kick.
He is a decent mark for his size but only for his size if you know what I mean.

Give me Fasolo and what he brings to the table any day over him, especially when he's fit enough to do the chasing.
The Sack is far more effective in this role and is sufficient enough IMO, we can't afford to carry two players of that ilk and are in desperate in need of injection of class into the forward line.

[Tannin]

King Monkey, great post. Some of your very best work there.

And you know, I agree with you pretty much all the way. It would be dumb to replace Blair with (say) Martin. Would Martin kick more goals? Of course. Win more possessions? Naturally. Feature in the best players more often? Put your house on it.

So Martin should replace Blair? Of course not! You might as well select Kennedy to replace Witts, or Hudson to replace Lumumba. Martin and Blair are completely different kinds of players. To replace one with the other is to significantly change the whole team balance.

Nevertheless, I reckon Blair is a weak link in our side, and not up to premiership standard. Yep, he played in one, and yep, he is more valuable than his stats show, but he just doesn't do enough often enough. He plays well in a decent number of easy games against the likes of Carlton and St Vomit (not that any game is really easy these days) but when the pressure is really on and we are up against a classy side in a big game - teams like Hawthorn and Geelong and Freo - nine times out of ten, Blair goes missing. He simply doesn't have what it takes to lift to that next superhuman level the way that genuine top-drawer players do, players like Pendlebury and Sidebottom and Lumumba and Daisy Thomas and Heater and Swanny and Ball and Cloke and Frosty and Marley Williams and ..... you see where I'm heading here? Fair-dinkum premiership-quality players are more consistent than Blair, and they have more upside. Sure, they can have bad days now and then, but Blair only has good days now and then, and substandard days more often than not. For four years I've been waiting for him to mature into the player I thought he could be, and now I'm tired of waiting and it's time to roll the dice again and try someone else. The Blair Experiment has failed. Time to cut our losses and move on.

But you are absolutely right to say that replacing Blair with a Martin or a Broomhead would be a mistake - exactly the same mistake as it would be to replace Frost with Adams or replace Elliott with Grundy. Blair plays that block-tackle-pressure role and - before all other qualities - his replacement must be equally good at that role. That's why I've argued for Luke Ball as our Blair replacement - 'coz Ball can and does do everything Blair is good at equally well and add quite a bit more besides. (In the middle, we have youngsters who can replace Ball, so that's not a problem.)

Or, if you want to keep Ball in the middle, then it's time to take a more talented youngster aside and groom him for the role. (Think about the way we offered 'Caff a negative role as our tagger, and he took it on and made it his own: exactly like that.) We have a few tough, hard-running youngsters who could go OK in that small defensive forward role. Why not try them? If we want to win another flag, we have to improve, and Blair hasn't improved in years. Time to find someone to replace him.

[King Monkey]

Tannin - I like the thinking in a sense, but it couldn't work in the modern game. I can't see too many players being too rushed by Luke Ball's pace chasing them down. His best work is in close.
Can you change it up and play a stoppage specialist in the forward line?? There's a thought for another day.......

I disagree with both of you on a perceived drop in performance from Blair, I think he's played the way he's been asked to superbly this year. He's more valuable than that of an "honest trier", he brings others into the game.

Beast - now that's a bit of a different argument to bring.
You'd like us to play a different way as a team which would make the way Blair is being asked to play, well, redundant.

[warburton lad]

I have no answer to this question, but a dear Magpie friend asked me after Sunday night, "when was the last time that a team won a premiership with two defensive forwards?".

Can we win if we have Blair and Goldsack as purely defensive forwards?

With Caff as a tagger?

People are suggesting if Blair goes, we need someone to fill, 'the Jarryd Blair-role". We're still looking at filling ' the Leigh Brown role'....

I like the thought of Karnesis or Fasolo or Martin or some other 'finisher' coming into the team and play ' the Blake Caracella role'...

Goals win finals.

[yin-YANG]

With his pace Freeman will provide that fwd pressure and work ethic that Blair brings and a bit more I would suggest... eventually.

Blair gets the most out of his skills and plays an important team role - but with Goldy up fwd with a defensive focus I think we need to have more players with x-factor/attacking skills who also work hard defensively - see the development of Faz.

Elliot, Faz and Freeman would be the ideal mix of smalls going forward - if they can get out there! If Blair is pushed out it would mean others are also doing the 1 per centers that are crucial for an effective forward line - until then he is worthy of his spot in the team.

[HAL]

So if not he is worthy of his spot in the team are are crucial for an effective, then not Blair is pushed out it would mean others doing the 1 per centers that crucial for an effective line - until.

[swoop42]

Out:Blair
In:Kennedy

Simple.

[SuperStar Beams]

When we play Goldy up back like we did against Carlton and we he had to go back against WC who provides the forward pressure??
Those that say forward pressure is a useless stat, that is what creates the turnovers in the middle or makes them kick to a 1 on 1 rather than having time to find someone.

[Breadcrawl]

Thanks king monkey.

Good debate lads.

I think the nays have it but everything KM said makes sense to me

[Tannin]

[jackcass]

As I've said elsewhere, I'll defer to the selectors. They seem to be getting it right more often than not and they have my faith.

[Lazza]