2-3 vs top 9 - only 1 game vs top 5

[RudeBoy]

It is what it is.

[jackcass]

[MJ23]

So we are suggesting an ANZAC game against Essendon at the G is not as hard a game as playing Gold coast because of their respective position on the ladder?
Not saying Gold coast will be an easy game up there - history says its not but surely the intensity and pressure of Anzac day has to be some sort of a form guide ?
Not to mention the players we have had unavailable throughout the season and Im not talking the quantity but the position they play. Weve had more than half of our best backline from last year missing in games.

[yin-YANG]

[yin-YANG]

[RudeBoy]

The op is correct. We have only beaten one top 4 team......but we haven't been beaten by a single top 4 team yet either.

[HAL]

By "we" do you mean you and me?

[Wokko]

[Skids]

[David]

Let's compare us to Hawthorn, a team that many still consider to be premiership favourites (or at least equal with Port and Sydney).

Top 4: 0-2
5-8: 2-1
9-12: 1-0
13-18: 4-0

Under E's standards, you could hardly say they've done any better than us. As Rudeboy points out, our record against top 4 teams is way better! And our record against the top 8 (or 9, or 10, or actually any grouping you like) is still superior. So, yeah, nothing to see here.

[E]

[35forever]

I think we'll definitely be in better shape next year, depending on injuries and player movements, however the 2014 Magpies can beat anyone when we're at our best.
I wasn't terribly thrilled about our start to the season even though we managed to get ourselves into the 4. We just didn't seem to be hard enough, leaked goals on some occasions, and couldn't buy goals on others. The last fortnight on the other hand has been remarkable, we've played 4 quarters for the first time in those 2 games, and have shown an ability to find another gear. The last quarter against the Saints was particularly pleasing. And this with the triple disadvantage of injuries, umpiring, and the draw. We've also seen big improvement from several blokes in the last two or three, particularly Blair, Goldy, Dasher, Maxy and even big 'battler' Witts. Langdon has been a revelation & seems to be getting better as the months go by, and Billy Elliot has added consistency to his formidable talent, as have Fas & Marley since their returns. Keefey, & 'Jack' have been very solid in defense. Just in the last week we've seen Trav kick himself into form & Josh Thomas make himself mighty hard to drop. On top of that we've seen several guys in the magoos getting our attention, especially Martin, Kennedy, Adams & Karnezis. Unfortunately it will be nearly impossible to cover the loss of Sidey who has been in scintillating form of late, especially against hawthorn, unless the match committee has the foresight to give someone like Kyle Martin a run, or Freeman becomes available.

There can be no doubt Collingwood once again got screwed in the draw, and I can prove it (as well as the umpiring bias) mathematically. After Round 8 I sat down and looked at the draw in light of last years ladder. Only Hawthorn played as many top 4 sides as us, and only Geelong played as many top 8 sides. That's right, the sides which finished 1 & 2 after the H&A had better draws than us. It is well known & documented that the start of the season is the most important part of the draw, followed by who a side plays in the last two or three, and who a side plays twice, and that the 8 tends not to change much after about 10 rounds.
To be sure this was correct I devised a simple, but more thorough system. I gave last years top 8 sides points to figure out how hard their draw was this year. I gave 1 point if the side played Hawthorn, 2 for Geelong, and so on down to 17 for Melbourne & 18 for GWS, so a higher number meant an easier draw & a lower number meant a harder draw.
After 5 rounds this year Collingwood had just 24 points, next hardest done by was Freo with 34, then Hawthorn with 40, Geelong 43, Sydney 47, Carlton 53, Richmond 55, and Port with a luxurious 58.
After 8 rounds we were still last with just 52, followed by Geelong's 57, then Freo & Hawthorn with 64 & 65, Richmond 76, Sydney 77, Port 78, and finally, the AFL's darlings Carlton with a massive 85.

The only real anomalies in this list, which mostly reads like the 2013 ladder , especially after 5 rounds, is clearly us, easily last on both counts. Did we actually win the 2013 flag and just forgot??? The draw would suggest we did! And this doesn’t take into account things like 'bogey' sides, or 'blockbusters' like Anzac.

So yeah, there was some justification in thinking we might be about 4-6 by this time, so 7-3 and in the top 4 is an extremely good spot to be given some of our decidedly patchy games, long injury list, and demonstrably unfair draw. The best part is that our best two games have been our last two. Maybe the Adelaide fiasco was just what was needed to sting us into producing our best? (mind you we generally fare poorly after a bye, having won only two since 2010, and those by a total of about 8 points!) As long as we win the next two (no certainty given that Melbourne damn near beat Port on the weekend), we'd go into the Hawthorn match in very good shape, particularly if Hawthorn continue to underwhelm, and their injury list stays nice & long!

I believe we are a genuine threat for this years flag, but we would certainly need things to go our way injury wise. I don't believe Port are as good as many think, despite their wins against a depleted Hawthorn & an overrated Geelong, they have had the cruisiest draw in history getting Carlton (but only in the last quarter), Adelaide, who they've had the wood on, Brizzo (what can one say!?), West Coast (even Carlton whupped them!), and Melbourne (just!). And they have StKilda and the Doggies coming up! The only hard game ahead for them is Sydney at home, which will tell us a lot.
but after that it’s the likes of Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, all middling teams. If we'd had their draw we'd probably be on top too.

So yeah, we're right up there for 2014, but we'll be better in '15 & 16!

[Flashman]

^^^^^Nice to have you on board and enjoying your footy again 35forever.

[RudeBoy]

Forget about 2015 or 2016.

We're in the top 4 now so we must seize the opportunity and go the Flag this year.

[Wokko]

+1 Rude. 15 + 16 will be GWS and GC at the highest mark they'll ever be (before players go home/salary cap/end of concessions). This year is our best chance for a while. I can't see any team as one we can't possibly beat. It'll all be down to injuries & peaking at just the right time.