Collingwood: First Term Report

[Neil Appleby]

** Edited 6/5/2014 to correct Inside 50 stats.

At the bye, Collingwood sits 5-2 and fourth on the ladder. I think any fair analysis would conclude that is a good performance considering the difficult draw Collingwood has faced compared with teams above it. After seven games, Collingwood has played only one game against a team that finished below it in 2013 and none against last year's cellar dwellers. That's a tough draw in anybody's language.

Collingwood's performance is even better when we consider that Buckley has not been able to select his 'best' back six in any game and his backline is filled with young, inexperienced defenders. Last week we lost 4 of our 6 defenders from the previous week alone. The defenders are totally jinxed! And despite this our defenders are allowing an average of only 77 points a game. This ranks at 5th overall and slightly above Hawthorn. Port has the meanest defence averaging just 71 points a game.

So where does the improvement come in the the next 15 games?
•Personnel wise, it's easy to suggest that we will be a far stronger unit when Reid slots back into the team. Not only will he take the opposition's second back, but he will provide some much needed set-shot accuracy.
•A settled backline is crucial going forward. Obviously we have the depth, but keeping Toovey, Fasolo and Maxwell on the park allows the release of Lumumba and Young to play wings, delivering the run and carry our game plan demands.
•Our ball use has been poor. Collingwood ranks 18th for disposal efficiency. By comparison, the teams above us on the ladder have efficiency rankings above 70% with the Hawks on 74%, Port 72.9% and Geelong 71.6%. You can bet your Collingwood beanie that Bucks and his coaches will be looking at ways to improve our ball use.
••••Collingwood ranks 3rd in the key stat of Average I50s per game. Hawthorn 55.7, Geelong 57.6, Collingwood 54.9 and Port 53.4.
•A stat I've had a lot of trouble finding is goals from inside 50s. I think Champion Data sells this one, so I've had to calculate it myself. We are doing pretty well here on my figures. We score a goal from every 4.2 entries, just behind Port on 4 and Hawthorn which converts from every 3.65 entries.
•No prizes for suggesting our scoring conversion is awful. From total scores, Collingwood scores a goal only 44% of the time. Hawthorn sits at 60%, Port on 58% and Geelong at 50%. Ben Reid can be a significant factor here; his presence will mean less pressure on Cloke and White. It will hopefully translate into shots from better positions inside the forward 50 rather than so many shots from tough angles 40-50 metres from goal. So far, our accuracy hasn't really cost us, but against the leading teams we just can't afford to kick goals 48% of the time. This is an area in which we must do better.
•The current stat that most accurately reflects ladder position is Marks Inside 50. We sit 4th on 13.6 per game. Hawthorn takes 15, Port 14.9 and Geelong 14.6.

In summary, we've done a lot right so far. Our baby defence has stood tall and our mids are kicking goals again. We are no longer allowing the opposition to kick easy, infuriating coast to coast goals and our forwards are applying great pressure. Our pressure is back to the manic levels of 2010 and 2011, which suggests more than anything else, that the players are buying the Buckley Game Plan. We are ranked number one in turnovers and are bettering the stats from our Premiership year here. We are not punishing the opposition though; the last stat I could find for Goals from Turnovers had us ranked 9th. Again, our ball-use must improve and a more settled team should help. Fingers crossed on those bloody injuries!

The Stats:

Av Marks Inside 50:
1 Haw 15
2 Port 14.9
3 Geel 14.6
4 Coll 13.6

Av Inside 50:
1 Gee 57.6
2 Haw 55.7
3 Coll 54.9
4 Ess 54.9

Effective Disposals
1. Ess
2. Bulldogs
3. Haw
6. Port
7. Geel
18. Coll

Av Scores Against
1. Port
2. North
3. Freo
4. Geel
5. Coll
6. Haw

[September Zeros]

Thanks Neil great break down and appreciate the time put into it. Couple of weeks to start the ball rolling on a change to kicking efficiency. Obviously this will take sone time but the beginning of this quest should be right now.

To be in forth position with such an important stat ranking us at 18 should put this skill atop the coaching agenda and payers minds.

Lower your eyes boys.

This is not to take away from a very solid performance thus far. We are Otherwise coasting pretty well and the players should be proud.

[didick]

Promising stuff. Nice analysis, Neil.
Comparing stats between teams at this point in the year is difficult/misleading somewhat too. The results will depend on which teams a team has played. For example, given our tough draw, it may well be that our forward 50 entries per game may be lower than a team with a softer draw against teams with weaker defence. Even disposal efficiency could be affected by playing better defensive units. So with a glass half full perspective at worst, we should make up some ground in some stats we're trailing in by simply playing the teams below us coming towards Rd 18 or so.

[slydog81]

Kicking for goal has been atrociuos but then again we were like that in 2010 as well.

Our defence given our loss of Shaw and other inuries this year has clearly been the most impressive part of our year.

[Culprit]

Until Reid actually runs out on the ground we need a plan B.

[woftam]

[Damien]

Great analysis Neil.

Obviously the draw gets easier in the next 6 weeks compared to the first 6 and if the injury gods smile on us and decide we've already had our share of bad luck for the year, barring the odd minor one then it's looking bright for us.

[uuuuu..... The LoneSTAR]

Collingwood = Tick
Neil = Tick

[Harrysz]

Impressive report Neil.
Thanks.

[swoop42]

Obviously over the preseason a lot of work was done on our defensive structure and as a result our defence has dramatically improved this season and the positive results are starting to show.

However with this increased defensive mindset our offence has taken a bit of a hit and I wouldn't be at all surprised if so far we are getting the ball inside 50 on average less times than last year.

That is one area we can improve on and will need to to beat the absolute cream but that is only half the problem as I still believe we don't take full advantage with the opportunities we do get.

Still this can be improved on as the year progresses and it's not all doom and gloom already as I'm pretty sure on the ratio of actual shots on goal for inside 50's we create we are close to if not the best in the competition.

[Johnno75]

Great Analysis

If we assume Round 1 was an aberration then it would be interested to compare the stats without Round 1.

If I am not wrong I think we rank #1 for Ave Scores Against.

[Captain_MyCaptain]

Neat write up Neil.

Being 5 and 2 after 7 games is a very good result given who we've played.
Looking at the draw I expect us to be 10 and 2 after 12 games.
Our next 5;
Adelaide - Away
Eagles - Home
St Kilda -
Melbourne -
Bulldogs.

All I ask for is a few 100 plus beltings in there and no injuries.
Cheers.

[Mugwump]

Cool summary ! You've just moved up a place on my "Pies supporter of the year" award. As others have said, it'll be interesting to see how those stats look by the end of round 12 or so.

I took a look at the Sydney game again a few nights ago, and was reminded that we were ca 24 points down in that one as well in the 2nd quarter (at which point, after the Freo game, it looked like a looong year ahead - how things can change!). We have had a habit of starting badly, it seems. As Johnno75 said, it'd also be intesting to run the stats without the Rd1 (ahem) "Etihad anomaly".

[perthmagpie]

Good write up. Got to fix field kicking and set shot kicking to be a real threat. It may come when the injured players get settled.

[yin-YANG]

Thanks for the breakdown Neil.

I think our poor showing with Effective Disposals has a lot to do with game plan. Dogs are second on this list. It suits a more attacking game-plan where players are loose to have an 'effective possession'. Our players are spending more of their running for defensive purposes rather than running ahead of play as per essendope and the dogs! I don't see this changing too much but it will improve I suggest as we play looser and lower teams and get to exploit their lack of pressure.

I watched the Tigers the other day against the Cats and they had soo many junk entries into the forward 50 - I think we are a class above and the marks inside 50 are a much better indicator of the quality of forward entry.

We lead in turnovers which highlights our pressure however we are not totally firing up forward yet - some cameos and good work but it is almost coming together - The day is coming when our forwards all have a day out and the mids join in - I am hoping it is a regular occurrence for the end of the year