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Form Ladder 2014

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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 2:39 pm
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port
haw
geel
coll
freo
gcs
syd
north

adel
ess
wb
rich
mel
carl
wce
stk
gws
bris

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 3:03 am
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Interesting. I was seriously considering putting Port on top, but I think the Hawks are still just shading them, Friday night's defeat notwithstanding. I think the Hawks have had a much tougher draw.

As for the Eagles, surely you're kidding. Below Melbourne!? Shocked

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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 6:37 am
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^ yes. melbourne's performances have been ok. wce had lost their last four games and only beat gws who are on a downward trajectory.

melbourne beat carlton and adelaide in that time.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 2:25 pm
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Yes, but West Coast put in a more than serviceable performance against Port (only losing by a couple of goals) and Fremantle—good enough to at least warrant a mid-table position, even on recent form alone. Can you imagine Melbourne being even half as competitive? And the Demons didn't manage to beat GWS by triple figures; they lost that game (this was the week after being thumped by guess who—West Coast—by 90 odd points)!

I get that you're only going by recent results, but I think you'd have to be crazy to think Melbourne could beat the Eagles on current form, even at home and at their best. West Coast are 8th to 10th at worst right now in my books; Melbourne are firmly in the bottom four, and that roughly is where I expect each team respectively will be at the end of the year.
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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 2:43 pm
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David wrote:
Yes, but West Coast put in a more than serviceable performance against Port (only losing by a couple of goals) and Fremantle—good enough to at least warrant a mid-table position, even on recent form alone. Can you imagine Melbourne being even half as competitive? And the Demons didn't manage to beat GWS by triple figures; they lost that game (this was the week after being thumped by guess who—West Coast—by 90 odd points)!

I get that you're only going by recent results, but I think you'd have to be crazy to think Melbourne could beat the Eagles on current form, even at home and at their best. West Coast are 8th to 10th at worst right now in my books; Melbourne are firmly in the bottom four, and that roughly is where I expect each team respectively will be at the end of the year.


righto. you know best.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2014 6:09 pm
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Now now. You know I enjoy debating this.

I'm just glad that someone cares enough to post. *sniffle*

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 9:32 pm
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Round 9:

1. Hawthorn
2. Port Adelaide
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Sydney
6. Collingwood
7. North Melbourne
8. West Coast

9. Gold Coast
10. Adelaide
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Carlton
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. GWS
18. Brisbane

A few changes this week. I think most will agree with where I've put us. The Suns only go up because Essendon and Richmond had such miserable weekends. They're going to have to do better than beating St. Kilda by 6 goals for me to take them seriously.

I think I've finally seen the light on Melbourne. They're still probably a bottom 4 team, but another performance or two like yesterday's and I'll have no choice but to move them up.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 12:36 am
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I agree with most of this but I think the Gold Coast and West Coast should swap positions.

If Port beat the Hawks next week, then Port would have to be on top surely.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:45 am
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Yep, I agree re: Port. It's already a bit of a toss-up as it is; whoever wins that match will have a rightful claim to top spot, I reckon.

re: the 'Coasts', let's analyse their performances so far. Given that they're both roughly middle-ranked teams, it shouldn't be too difficult to rate them:

West Coast:
Good: Bulldogs (win, 65); Melbourne (win, 90); Port (loss, 14); GWS (win, 111)
OK: St. Kilda (win, 25); Fremantle (loss, 19)
Bad: Geelong (loss, 75); Carlton (loss, 3)

No really great performances, but no really bad ones either (the Geelong game aside, perhaps). They've certainly proven themselves adept at beating up on cellar dwellers, but their most impressive game has arguably been their close loss to Port.

Gold Coast:
Good: North Melbourne (win, 43)
OK: Richmond (win, 18); Brisbane (win, 53); GWS (win, 40); St. Kilda (win, 38)
Bad: Fremantle (loss, 48); Hawthorn (loss, 99); Melbourne (win, 8)

Unlike West Coast, the Suns have been far less impressive in their wins against cellar dwellers—their victories over Brisbane, St. Kilda and GWS are merely acceptable for a team around the middle of the ladder, and their wins against Richmond and Melbourne are barely even that. Otherwise, they put in a poorer showing against Fremantle than West Coast did, and their loss against Hawthorn was a fair smashing for a team with top 8 aspirations. The only saving grace is their win against North, which is by far the most impressive performance of either team; but when you look at the overall results of each club, I think you'd have to conclude that the Eagles have been more impressive so far.

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sixpoints 



Joined: 27 Sep 2010
Location: Lulie Street

PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 11:57 pm
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Whoa, Richmond stink!
Fell over the line against Carlton & had one decent win over Brisbane. Every other game - a loss.
Agreed, the bottom seven seem set and will probably just rotate around between themselves for spots 12-18. I just can't have Richmond at 2-6 above six other sides.
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 5:54 pm
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Losing to Geelong by only five points was a better performance than and team in the bottom six has been able to manage. You could make a case for Carlton or the Bulldogs playing better—I don't think there's much between the three—but Richmond have been clearly better than my bottom four, I think.
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Mon May 26, 2014 10:27 am
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Round 9:

1. Port Adelaide
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Sydney
6. Collingwood
7. North Melbourne
8. West Coast

9. Gold Coast
10. Adelaide
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Carlton
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. GWS
18. Brisbane

Almost no change this week. I toyed with swapping Richmond and Carlton, but the Tigers were pretty impressive. Port Adelaide are the obvious choice for the top spot now, though.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon May 26, 2014 11:26 am
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David wrote:
Port Adelaide are the obvious choice for the top spot now, though.

Ya think? Laughing

Don't see how Geelong could be so high on "form". In the last month, they've been pumped by Freo (they're very lucky Freo kicked poorly or that could have been a serious scoreboard-thrashing) and Port, barely got over Richmond and then just managed to get home alright at the Pussy-ery against North. Is this really a "form" ladder (where recent efforts should be given priority over past glories) or is it a "weighted" ladder adjusted for "strength" of fixture and assessed over the whole of the season to date?

IMO, a better assessment of where Geelong is really at will come this weekend against South Melbourne. If they win that, they probably deserve a top 6-ish spot; if they lose to South, they should be in the bottom half. They look to me like a team on the way down. Just a few of the same old hands are carrying them (this week it was Kelly and Bartel) and there are fewer to spread that load. I don't doubt that they still have match-winning talent but they've depended on it playing match-winning footy this season and I think they may be spending too much petrol winning home and away games.

Meanwhile, the Swans have a serious three-game test coming up.

Interesting period ahead for the Suns, too: a "make or break" 6 weeks, in which they play the Crows (away), the Swans (at home), the Wiggles (away), the Pussies (at home), the Hawks (away) and Collingwood at home. If they win 3 of those, they are a good chance to finish top 4 (from thereon, they only have one apparently difficult game, against Port - and even that is a home game).
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Mon May 26, 2014 12:13 pm
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Pies4Shaw wrote:
Is this really a "form" ladder (where recent efforts should be given priority over past glories) or is it a "weighted" ladder adjusted for "strength" of fixture and assessed over the whole of the season to date?


The latter. Point taken on Geelong, but I'm not sure Freo or the Swans have overtaken them yet. Sydney are in very good form, but their slow start counts against them.

I wouldn't expect the Suns to win more than one or two of their next six. I would still be very surprised if they made the top 4 this year, and I don't think they'd even make the top 8 if it wasn't for the ease of their draw. Still only beaten one team in the top 10 or so.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


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PostPosted: Mon May 26, 2014 12:20 pm
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Yes, I think the Suns will probably just miss the 8, despite their easy draw. But we will both need to reassess that if they break even over the next 6 weeks - and they do play reasonably well at home.
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