Realism not Pessimism

[42]

Everyone is doing the usual Colllingwood thing in a lean year and saying that everything is broken and everyone has to go.

But realistically we are about where we should be and in a good position, assuming you don't believe that Collingwood is always going to win the flag everyyear if only it wasn't for <<insert complaint /hysterical comment here>>

The list is being heavily rebuilt, game plan being implemented and we are getting games into a lot of kids in key positions while some ageing warriors are not what they used to be and are being steadily retired.

You can't expect to do that and still get perfect results each week, in fact you wont even get consistant results from week to week. And of course there will be some who perform and some who don't ultimately cut it, but thats the point of this period of time, finding out who is premiership winning material.

from a grand final in the year before buckley took over we have played finals twice and will more than likely just miss out this year. we should be in the bottom of the cycle. if in 2\3 year time we are not in serious flag contention, with a steady upward trend over that time, then sure its time to start again but lets be realistic.

you can't look at a kid and say why dont u play like swannie. swannie didnt play like swannie for about 7 or 8 years. lets keep it real guys.

[Leggie]

Mate. For stuff sake stop being sensible
Go Pies

[John Wren]

nothing like a bit of hysteria to keep things interesting. a loss like yesterday's is hard to swallow but we're going to have inconsistent performances when we've got so many kids in the team. if we're like this when they've got 50-60 games into them then i'd be worried.

btw, good to see you back nath.

[chrisjjj]

We may be around the top 8 but our second half of the season is bottom 4 and unless something special happens during trade week and pre-season thats where I see us finishing next season.

[derkd]

I don't disagree that we have a young list with some real talent. And I am sure we will improve. Buckley's contract is up next year, so we need to start talking about "what level" of improvement we would expect. By end of next year Clarkson, maybe Thompson might be on the market as coaches.

[Wokko]

In the middle of a rebuild and ravaged by injury, I'm not sure why anyone would expect to be anywhere else. The only thing I don't like is when I see lack of effort/heart. I can stomach a shit team (I loved watching the honest triers of the 90s), but I can't stomach a team that doesn't give a shit.

[nomadjack]

[jackcass]

[yin-YANG]

^ Good analysis Jackass...

Highlights that our team is currently in a building phase and we need to be patient...

I would hope that next year we see some improvement in the game plan and intensity to help keep the "perceptive fellow" away and keep most realistic supporters happy!

For a top 4 finish this year we needed a lot of things to go right with our senior players - we needed Reid out there supporting Cloke and White and we needed a good year from Swan and Ball. Young needed to step up and H required more consistency. Maxy, Tooves and Brown needed to have good years to help out the newly forming back line. These things didn't happen with the senior guys so too much was left to the newbies. They showed some talent and fight but like most younger players could not keep it going!

We will get injuries next year, every team does - who gets injured though can make a huge difference on any teams potential to make a serious charge in September.

The four oldest teams are due to fight it out this year - lets keep getting some games into our talented kids and watch our team become a serious contender again over the next few years!

[swoop42]

Nice analysis though I think it comes with a few caveats.

Of the teams ranked younger than us we lost to 3 of them in the Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide this season. Port Adelaide has won two more games for the year than us with a second year coach. Adelaide are now ahead of us with a 3rd (or 4th?) year coach. Neither of those two coaches inherited a list coming off consecutive GF appearances.

While I expect to win both we are yet to play either GWS or Brisbane.

Hard to imagine that GWS with all there draft concessions wont be a genuine force in the near future and yet another in our way of premiership success.

While it's not surprising that the sides with oldest and most experienced squads sit a top the ladder it would be foolish and naive to think they don't have the ability to refresh there lists on the run with talented draftees and smart recruitment of experienced players.

Geelong and Hawthorn are the masters of it while Sydney with the aid of the COLA and academies have a genuine advantage over the rest of the competition.

No, we simply have to get better at everything as right now we seem to be falling behind the pack we not so long ago lead.

The coach is on notice from here on out and has 12 months to right the ship.

[jackcass]

Valid points Swoop but the cited stats are only applicable for R20.

R13 v Doggies they were 25.2, 89.9 games and 8 <50 players whereas we were 24.6, 73.3, & 12.

R18 v Crows they were 24.9, 61.5, and 9. We were 24.0, 65.9, and 11.

You can go back through each round and I'm pretty confident that we are behind our opposition on all these measures except for the GCS game.

But these are only one set of measures. They don't give credence to the vagaries of the draw (ie: playing our home game v Doggies at Etihad), or relative form of opposition, or a multitude of others.

Just put it together to provide some little justification for our 2014 form issues.

As to list regeneration, I agree, Swans, Hawks, and Cats have done it particularly well but I'd argue that they had more even lists than us going back to the mid 90's which has underpinned some of the drafting they've been able to acheive. In reality, most teams drop significantly post a successful period while they regenerate. St Kilda, Port and Brisbane the flip side to the Swans, Cats and Hawks arguement, and even these great teams have had poor years.

[ThePieMind]

We have the 2nd highest number of players under 23 behind GC.

We also have the 2nd highest number of games played by these under 23's - behind GC.

Source: Footy Classified or Talking Footy as few weeks ago.

If we had GC's depth of talent I reckon we would be a certainty for multiple flags in the next 5 -6 yrs.

[neil]

[collie dog]

Keep using the youth excuse guys. It sounds great. The problem is most of them are simply no good! Funny how Geelong and Hawthorn keep finding kids and turning them into future superstars year after year. It's even funnier that they have been able to do this without bottoming out and having high draft picks. That has to say something for their recruiting nous.

One more thing, when Collingwood got rid of Alan Richardson we lost perhaps our most important person at the club. He was a superb development coach for us - as Port and now St Kilda are finding out. Just watch St Kilda bounce back with him at the helm for a few years.

[jackcass]

Yeah, right. Geelong and Hawthorn never bottom out and get low draft picks.

Position at end of H&S since 2000...

Geelong - 15th, 12th, 9th, 12th, 4th, 6th, 10th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 2nd.
Hawthorn - 8th, 6th, 10th, 9th, 15th, 14th, 11th, 5th, 2nd, 9th, 7th, 3rd, 1st, 1st.
Collingwood - 5th, 9th, 4th, 2nd, 13th, 15th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 6th.

Bolded the years teams didn't make the 8.

Yeah right...