The Run Home in Season 2013

[Presti35]

We have six games remaining.

We are sitting 6th on the ladder with three wins infront of the 8th placed Blues. And we are 2 wins beihind top placed Geelong.

So making the finals from here you'd think is almost certain.

Here's the run home:

Round 14 @ Geelong (1st).

Round 15 Vs Casey (2nd).

Round 16 Vs Williamstown (3rd).

Round 17 @ North Ballarat (9th).

Round 18 @ Sandringham (11th).

Round 19 Vs Werribee (5th).

There are some tough games coming up, especially since we play the top three teams in the next three weeks. Beating the Cats in Geelong will be tough. Very tough. But we have beaten the Cats already this year and we did get within a goal of both Werribee and Williamstown at their home grounds. Casey belted us, but we can beat them at VP.

Top 4 isnt even out of the question, but we'd need to get the points in atleast two of the next three for that to remain open I think.

[jackcass]

Very tough run home. Be interesting to see which players make a return from injury to bolster the squad.

[Dave The Man]

I go to every game for the Rest of the Season. Except for next week as Friday Night at Geelong is a Stupid Time.

With Games against the Top 4 we could finish in top 4 even on top of the Ladder.

We are Capable of winning the Flag

[Fire Up]

we can probably win 4 out of the last 6 games. that being said it will depend on what the vfl looks like. goldy to play this week. maybe jolly in a few weeks before he gets into senior side. throw in dids as well, and frost

[Dave The Man]

[MagpieBat]

During the bye weekend a couple of rounds back, I did a bit of a back of the envelope ladder prediction based on our 2nd half of the year.

I had us finishing on 44 points (11 wins), resulting in a 5th place finish.

Now, this was before the Box Hill game, which I had down as a likely loss. Given that we actually won that match, we have essentially 'picked up' a game.

The team who I had projected to finish in 4th, Williamstown (44 points plus percentage), lost on the weekend to Sandringham, a game I had Willy actually winning.

I think we were in with a good chance before the events of the past fortnight. Now that Willy has lost and we have picked up a game over Box Hill, I would say it is now more likely than not that we could take 4th spot.

That being said, we have to go on with it. That starts on Friday night against Geelong at Catland. This is a game I had (have) us winning. Should we drop it, however, then that win over Box Hill will essentially be for nothing...

[MagpieBat]

ABC just did a ladder prediction during today's TV game.

They have us winning the final 3 games and finishing in 5th on 44 points.

On their ladder predictor, we would be playing an elimination final against the mob from Windy Hill.

Losses to Frankston, Casey (2nd time) and Willy (1st time) have really hurt...

[Dave The Man]

[MagpieBat]

[Presti35]

[Presti35]

Ok so the highest we can finish is 5th. The lowest we can finish is 10th. The most likly place we will finish is probably 7th or 8th.

We are competing with Werribee, Port Melbourne, Northern Blues, North Ballarat and Essendon for a spot from 5 to 8.

Out of those teams, we have the second worst percentage with 102%.

Here's the run home for those clubs:
Essendon (10th. 7 wins. 105%.) have Frankston and North Ballarat.
-They should be able to beat Frankston at Windy Hill, but the final game against the Roosters will test them. A game behind

Collingwood (9th. 8 wins. 102%.) have Sandringham and Werribee.
-Should be able to beat the Zebras, but once again the final game will be tough.

North Ballarat (8th. 8 wins. 104%.) have Williamstown and Essendon.
-We're relying on Willy to get the win next week. Their final game could determine the final spot!

Northern Blues (7th. 8 wins. 111%.) have Werribee and Williamstown.
-We're probably hoping that Werribee wins next week (meaning we wont be able to finish 5th, but can still catch the Blues). We'll also be hoping the 'Guls can win in the following week too. Most vulnirable to lose the next two.

Port Melboune (6th. 8 wins. 1 draw. 100%.) have Geelong and Coburg
-Sadly, we'll be hoping the Cats get up next week. And I think they should. Port will be to good for Coburg. Most likly to finish 6th.

Werribee (5th. 9 wins. 113%.) have Northern and Collingwood.
-Most likly to finish 5th. A game infront and a good % helps them too. I think its better for us if they beat the Blues next week and then hope we can get them in the final round.

So basically its a must beat Sandringham, hope to beat Werribee the following week, but hope Werribee beats Blues and its go Williamstown for the next two weeks.

Let me try that again:
Next week we need Collingwood, Williamstown and Werribee to win. It would help if Frankston and Geelong win their games.

The week after that we need Williamstown to win and obviously Collingwood to win. If its a Pies win, it would help if Coburg and Essendon won their games. If its a Pies loss then we'd still want Essendon to win unless we lost the week before.

[Presti35]

Ok, so last week we got the results we wanted, except for Frankston losing to Essendon.

This week we have an interesting scenario.

Beat Werribee and we are in. And will finish 6th. (Werribees % is to high to catch up, but will fininsh equal on points).

Lose to Werribee and we will nervously watch the remaining games. (Our game is at 11am on Saturday).

If we lose, these are the games that will make or break us:
-Essendon Vs North Ballarat.
Both on 32 points and one game behind the Pies. A loss to Werribee means the winner of this game will jump us due to our %. However with 2% the difference between us and the Roosters, it's probably better that we hope for a Roosters win in a low scoring/close game.

-Williamstown Vs Northern Blues.
Simply, if we lose to Werribee, then Williamstown have to win for us to stay in 8th. A Blues win will see them jump us due to a lower %.

-Coburg Vs Port Melbourne.
Hard to see Port losing this too. So once again, if we lose, we'd want an upset in this game otherwise its another team that will jump us.

So it's a MASSIVE game against the W. Tigers. If we lose we will drop at least 2 spots with the winner of Ess/NB to jump us and a likly win for Port to jump us. If Blues beat Guls then we will drop again.

So a loss means we're likly to finish 8th, but a chance to finish 9th depending on Willy/Blues. But a win means we will finish 6th.

[Presti35]

Nothing to see here!