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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:29 pm
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Trump agrees to meet Kim.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-09/donald-trump-to-meet-kim-jong-un-stop-missile-tests/9531232

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:29 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Trump agrees to meet Kim.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-09/donald-trump-to-meet-kim-jong-un-stop-missile-tests/9531232


There have been talks before. When Kim signs a verifiable treaty and submits to reputable inspections we’ll be getting somewhere. Until then, it Means a little bit more than nothing.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:33 pm
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Agree, but at least it's a good starting point that may lead to something positive down the track.
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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:20 pm
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Yes, better than nothing, just not much. But I have always liked Trumps approach to NK. Psychopaths like Kim respond best to forceful challenge if you have the power to hurt them.
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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:43 pm
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Mugwump wrote:
Yes, better than nothing, just not much. But I have always liked Trumps approach to NK. Psychopaths like Kim respond best to forceful challenge if you have the power to hurt them.


I think, for all his knockers, Trump is a strong leader... he loves his country.
God bless America Cool

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:40 am
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Skids wrote:
Mugwump wrote:
Yes, better than nothing, just not much. But I have always liked Trumps approach to NK. Psychopaths like Kim respond best to forceful challenge if you have the power to hurt them.


I think, for all his knockers, Trump is a strong leader... he loves his country.
God bless America Cool


Oh, I don't agree, Skids. I think he's chaotic and he's achieved very little in concrete terms despite his bluster. But when the china in the shop is out of date, a bull let loose can cause a stocktake. I think that may be happening with NK. But Kim and NK have a long history of saying things and not following through. Like Hitler at Munich, it's part of their schtick.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:44 am
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In the world of the 7B or so people who exist outside the Anglo-American tweet cycle, the main change in the relationship has clearly been the election of Moon Jae-in.

As a liberal from the Noh government, Moon was always going to reverse or at least neutralise the hawkish stance of Park, resulting in a PR thaw (even if not a revival of Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy").

This has inevitably seen "dialogue", though as Mugwump says, it's anyone's guess what that actually means.

As with Anglo-America, SK has its own dim culture wars which result in symbolic lurches to the left and right, entertaining the respective mobs, but shedding little light on anything important.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:17 pm
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^ The increased dialogue since Moon’s appointment has been written about extensively in the Financial Times, but it is not clear to me how or why it should have had much influence. SK represents no threat to the future of the KJU regime( other than through its manifest economic and social superiority), so it’s not clear to me why a new SK administration should cause a change in NK policy. Still, you lived there, and you know the country better than most, and if you have views on how and why, it’d be interesting to hear them.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:07 am
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Mugwump wrote:
^ The increased dialogue since Moon’s appointment has been written about extensively in the Financial Times, but it is not clear to me how or why it should have had much influence. SK represents no threat to the future of the KJU regime( other than through its manifest economic and social superiority), so it’s not clear to me why a new SK administration should cause a change in NK policy. Still, you lived there, and you know the country better than most, and if you have views on how and why, it’d be interesting to hear them.

Yes, the Fin Times does better than most with the Koreas, showing an awareness of local factors.

What we do know is that when SK wants "dialogue" with NK, it gets "dialogue" (e.g., the period under Kim and Noh), and when SK doesn't want "dialogue" with NK, there is none (e.g., the period under Cold War hawks Lee and Park; the freeze under the dictators before them).

Meanwhile, when the US pushes too hard contrary to South Korean sentiment, there's strong pushback (e.g., the incessant anti-American protests and strained relations during the Bush administration).

Of course, bigger forces then have to align with that local position to make it so, but they always have in the modern period. China and Russia have their own agendas, while NK despises Japan with a passion. That leaves only one nation for the US to work with in regard to NK.

The US might generally hold veto powers in a relationship by virtue of its hegemony, but SK is the canary in the mine of regional security as well as the literal front line. Not only can nothing be done practically without its assent, but serious tension between the US and SK would be calamitous. This grants SK veto powers of its own on this issue.

The Bush (Axis of Evil) and Kim/Noh (Sunshine Policy) era is the only real example of US-SK misalignment, with US hawks and South Korean doves being ascendant at the same time. The anti-American sentiment during this period was severe, with relations between the countries hitting an historical nadir.

Of course, in a situation of policy alignment, all this matters little. But in answer to your original question, South Korean sentiment has always been decisive when it comes to North Korean policy, and Moon's policy intentions were clear long before he was elected in a landslide.

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:29 pm
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^ clear enough, thanks. There have been talks with NK before, but never, seemingly, in good faith from their side. When you are wholly rotten, as NK is, extinguishing the alternative is really your only practical strategy.
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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:46 am
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North Korea says it will stop nuclear and missile tests and abolish test site

Mr Trump welcomed the statement and said he looked forward to a summit with Mr Kim.

"North Korea has agreed to suspend all nuclear tests and close up a major test site," he said on Twitter.

"This is very good news for North Korea and the world — big progress!

"Look forward to our summit."

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-21/north-korea-says-it-will-suspend-nuclear-and-missile-testing/9683386

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David Libra

Reel around the fountain


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Pripyat, in spirit

PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:21 am
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I’m starting to wonder if Trump’s North Korea strategy – for all its cackhandedness and his own profound ignorance of diplomacy and regional issues – is going to be vindicated. You could say “even a stopped clock”, but the progress being made here is extremely encouraging, and the fact that so many decades have gone by without so much as a meeting between leaders is a pretty damning reflection on past US approaches to the situation. We shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch, but unlike his enemies in the pro-war US establishment (see here for a particularly pathetic take in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/18/north-korea-trump-south-korea-kim-jong-un), I’m willing to cut Trump some slack here – maybe, just maybe, whatever he’s doing here is working.

Of course, we shouldn’t discount the important role played by Moon Jae-in here – South Korea’s hard pivot towards diplomacy and de-escalation under his leadership is going to be the biggest factor in any peace treaty. But the fact that we’re even talking about this now is a ray of sunshine in a violent world.

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:42 pm
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David wrote:
I’m starting to wonder if Trump’s North Korea strategy – for all its cackhandedness and his own profound ignorance of diplomacy and regional issues – is going to be vindicated. You could say “even a stopped clock”, but the progress being made here is extremely encouraging, and the fact that so many decades have gone by without so much as a meeting between leaders is a pretty damning reflection on past US approaches to the situation. We shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch, but unlike his enemies in the pro-war US establishment (see here for a particularly pathetic take in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/18/north-korea-trump-south-korea-kim-jong-un), I’m willing to cut Trump some slack here – maybe, just maybe, whatever he’s doing here is working.

Of course, we shouldn’t discount the important role played by Moon Jae-in here – South Korea’s hard pivot towards diplomacy and de-escalation under his leadership is going to be the biggest factor in any peace treaty. But the fact that we’re even talking about this now is a ray of sunshine in a violent world.


Here, here!

Agree totally about Moon, but, Trump has been instrumental in this process also. looking forward to what comes from their meeting.

Will the loonies EVER give Trump any credit for anything?.... I doubt it Sad

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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:46 pm
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""? You doubt it?
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:22 pm
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Skids wrote:
David wrote:
I’m starting to wonder if Trump’s North Korea strategy – for all its cackhandedness and his own profound ignorance of diplomacy and regional issues – is going to be vindicated. You could say “even a stopped clock”, but the progress being made here is extremely encouraging, and the fact that so many decades have gone by without so much as a meeting between leaders is a pretty damning reflection on past US approaches to the situation. We shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch, but unlike his enemies in the pro-war US establishment (see here for a particularly pathetic take in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/18/north-korea-trump-south-korea-kim-jong-un), I’m willing to cut Trump some slack here – maybe, just maybe, whatever he’s doing here is working.

Of course, we shouldn’t discount the important role played by Moon Jae-in here – South Korea’s hard pivot towards diplomacy and de-escalation under his leadership is going to be the biggest factor in any peace treaty. But the fact that we’re even talking about this now is a ray of sunshine in a violent world.


Here, here!

Agree totally about Moon, but, Trump has been instrumental in this process also. looking forward to what comes from their meeting.

Will the loonies EVER give Trump any credit for anything?.... I doubt it Sad

Did you listen to what the other party, Kim, said? Kim said no further tests were required because NKs nuclear (and ICBM) capabilities had been "verified". Verified! Not halted, not eliminated, but V-E-R-I-F-I-E-D.

How on earth does NK's decades-long objective to secure itself have anything to do with Trump's year-old grandstanding? In a void of detail, you're clinging to Trump's reality TV claims. The information reaching your ears makes you *feel* like Trumpian chaos has caused something unexpected to happen. But it's the *complete" opposite if you take Kim at face value (which you definitely shouldn't do, either); in Kim's narrative, the *expected* was finally realised, with NK now having what it implies is a sufficient defensive arsenal.

Further, far more important than Trump's bluster is the mega elephant in the relationship: the new Kim. No one ever mentions him as a three-dimensional agent with independent thought and objectives, assuming in a complete void of information that he's a carbon copy of the caricatures of dad and granddad. But the generation gap is a powerful force in every culture; refardless, who the heck knows anything meaningful about the guy?

Of course, yes, everything has to be ratified by the superpowers concerned. So, you're definitely right in the sense that nothing happens in the end without US assent and Trump wanting to chalk up an historic win. However, beyond the hot air, it may work more like this: SK wants rapprochement (as explained, it often doesn't, depending on who's in government); NK is satisfied it is is safe enough to start rapprochement; the US gives its blessing; China and Russia don't intervene because it happens to suit them for reasons unknown; and Japan doesn't throw a tantrum over the economic and political clout suggested by a unified Korea, or indeed the risks of engaging NK.

All that assuming Kim is not pulling our leg by pretending he has "verified" his arsenal.. The critical problem has always been about NK needing weapons to feel secure enough to engage, and no one wanting NK to get those weapons due to the risks concerned. This longstanding dilemma precedes Trump by decades, hence the periodic US panics about NK's capabilities. If Kim is talking nonsense, things could return to the status quo very quickly, unless Kim bluffs his way to security, which could also happen.

I get the need to be hopeful (I am, too), and I get the view that the non-institutionalist Trump might throw a spanner in the old works, and turn out something positive. But sans a serious consideration of the knowns, that's wishful thinking at best, and blind hero worship at worst.

As we know with footy debates, people will cling to the times they were right, and forget all the times they were wrong, much like gambling addicts. Meanwhile, the knowns float about the ether, awaiting analysis, often being sucked down information black holes — China, Russia, NK internal politics, the mysteries of Pompeo's actual work, corporate interests, electoral needs, and Trump's need to change course suddenly to save face — just as you think you're getting a handle on the matter.

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Last edited by pietillidie on Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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