| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
What would a harder stance have been? North Korea has been developing missiles since the late 1970s. A ground invasion or pre-emptive strike would still have been a bloodbath even without nuclear weaponry, and given the results of the US's incursions into Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, there would have been no guarantee of success. Otherwise, sanctions seem to have only hardened the Kims' resolve. If anything, more diplomacy sooner might have had the most effective result – a half-arsed attempt to extend the olive branch in the '90s doesn't mean that every avenue was pursued.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
 |
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Diplomacy has worked a treat so far. They didn't suddenly develop these weapons this year, this all happened on Obama's watch, now Trump has to deal with it when shit is real, not just maybe.
You can't negotiate when there are only winner/loser scenarios. You have to work out what the other party actually values and be prepared to give stuff up that are less critical to you than what you gain.
Kim wants Nukes, we don't want them top have them. Stalemate.
Work out what underpins their need and you might have a chance at diplomacy.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
I agree – except I'm not sure that Obama ever pursued anything like a diplomatic approach with them. The only genuine criticism of him seems to be that he wasn't hard enough, and given the uselessness (and possibly quite counterproductive consequences) of Trump's threats so far, I'm not sure that holds up.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Trumps threats could be construed to be an ambit part of negotiation.
Kim etc had Obama figured out, they're wary of Trump .
In other words, he's been constructive IMO
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| The evidence that Trump's been constructive is missiles being fired over Japan and into the sea on the other side, is it? |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^
No, that's evidence that Kim is pushing, trying to figure out where the boundary is.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Pi
Joined: 13 Feb 2006
Location: SA
|
| Post subject: | |
|
North Korea has Nukes and is not about to give them up, ever! the rest of the world may as well decide to ignore another worthless treaty...... The nuclear proliferation treaty can go into the same garbage bin as , ...... Treaty of Versailles, 1919, Munich Conference, 1938.......
In fact since 1500 BC to now , there have been over eight thousand peace treaties (imagine Jack Thomson saying 'Thousand' really loudly) each lasting on average about 3 years.... And not one of them has actually worked...
Mutually assured destruction is the only non treaty that has been effective over any length of time in preventing a catastrophe for any regime hoping to survive..... It's a sad out look for the human race... but that is the pragmatic reality of the world we live in. One night of Kumbaya round the camp fire doesn't change 5000 years of human history.....we are who we are...
_________________
Pi = Infinite = Collingwood = Always
Floreat Pica |
|
|
|
|
swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| stui magpie wrote: | Diplomacy has worked a treat so far. They didn't suddenly develop these weapons this year, this all happened on Obama's watch, now Trump has to deal with it when shit is real, not just maybe.
You can't negotiate when there are only winner/loser scenarios. You have to work out what the other party actually values and be prepared to give stuff up that are less critical to you than what you gain.
Kim wants Nukes, we don't want them top have them. Stalemate.
Work out what underpins their need and you might have a chance at diplomacy. |
Incorrect.
They'd been working towards being a nuclear power for decades prior to Obama being President.
There first nuclear bomb test was in 2006 when Bush was President.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_North_Korean_nuclear_program
_________________
He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
|
|
|
|
swoop42
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| David wrote: | http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=19278
| Quote: | The US has to accept North Korea as a nuclear power
Alon Ben-Meir
[...]
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, the US needs to eventually accept the new reality of a nuclear North Korea just as it had come to terms with both India and Pakistan as nuclear powers, which created mutual deterrence and brought an end to the conventional wars between the two countries.
Indeed, the real threat to the US and its allies does not emanate from North Korea's possession of a nuclear arsenal, but from the development and deployment of ICBMs mounted with miniaturized nuclear warheads that could reach not only US allies, but the US mainland itself. To remove this threat, the US should negotiate directly with North Korea and reach an agreement that would freeze further development of such technology, which China would certainly support.
North Korea may well accede through negotiations to this demand, as they can still claim to be a nuclear power and receive the recognition and respect of the international community which they desperately crave.
In return, North Korea will require the US to end its belligerent policy that has been in place since the end of the Korean war; that the US commits not to seek regime change, which was and still is the main motivator behind their pursuit of a nuclear shield; and that the US end its war games with South Korea and gradually remove the sanctions.
The lifting of the sanctions is extraordinarily important to mitigate the humanitarian crisis that has been inflicted on 25 million North Koreans, especially women and children, for nearly seven decades. Although humanitarian aid is exempt from diplomatic sanctions, more than 10 million citizens are undernourished and suffer from chronic food insecurity, which is tragically ignored or forgotten by the rest of the international community.
Based on the above terms, North Korea will have to fully comply to every provision of the accord, rejoin the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and adhere to the rules and requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency, especially on the stationing of monitors and stringent inspections to ensure full compliance.
Given the experience of previous successive American administrations with North Korea, which have tried every conceivable approach to end the North Korean nuclear program including sanctions, negotiations, military threats, and isolation, none have worked because Pyongyang was determined not to surrender its nuclear weapons and be vulnerable to regime change.
We must now accept the fact that North Korea is a nuclear power, and rely on nuclear deterrence while normalizing relations in the process. Anything else is wishful thinking, and Kim Jong Un knows that only too well. |
|
The quicker the United States realizes the game is lost and the only card it has left to play is high level diplomacy the better.
Apparently they and North Korea aren't currently engaged or have anyone in place to conduct these high level talks according to some media commentary I heard the other day.
They will have to swallow some pride and compromise on conditions North Korea will seek in return for halting it's ICBM program and ceasing of nuclear weapons testing but it's a better option than war and mass casualties.
Like the article states North Korea wont be giving up it's current nuclear arsenal so either we accept that and work towards an agreement that will lower tensions within the region or we allow it to escalate like present and watch millions potentially die.
_________________
He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| stui magpie wrote: | Trumps threats could be construed to be an ambit part of negotiation.
Kim etc had Obama figured out, they're wary of Trump .
In other words, he's been constructive IMO |
What evidence do you have for these assertions? Escalating their program doesn't exactly scream wariness to me. It sounds more like they're calling his bluff.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| swoop42 wrote: | | Apparently they and North Korea aren't currently engaged or have anyone in place to conduct these high level talks according to some media commentary I heard the other day. |
Dennis Rodman is always an option if all else fails? 
_________________
| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| I think [quote]
Dennis Rodman is much more than that. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Another missile has just been fired over Japan. According to The Guardian:
| Quote: | | The Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, believes today’s missile launch is a sign of the regime’s frustration at being hit with further sanctions. |
If this is what Turnbull genuinely believes, then he is quite clearly acknowledging that the US and allies' punitive responses are escalating tensions and consequently making the world a more dangerous place. So the question remains: why are we doing it?
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
swoop42
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
|
| Post subject: | |
|
From what I've heard the former missile fired "over" Japan was done at such a high altitude that's it's not considered the air space of that nation.
When it splashed down I assume it was in Japanese waters.
_________________
He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
|
|
|
|
Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| It was a blockade that led to the attack on Pearl Harbour. |
|
|
|
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
