The wash up of Election '07

[stui magpie]

I'm not a deep political analyst, but I do agree that the democrats must now surely be dead.

Unfortunately, I don't think there is a real credible 3rd alternative. The Greens have made some mileage as environmental issues become more mainstream but are still way too narrow in their focus to be anything more than a nagging conscience IMO.

A summary I read this morning suggests labour has most of it's first term already practically laid out in front of it. It will take probably 12 months at least before we can see any tangible impacts from what they do, so I'll wait til then.

The Liberals have certainly been given a working over yet as someone pointed out earlier I think, they only need something like a 3% swing back to take government at the next election again so they are hardly totally wiped out. Now that Costello has pulled out of leadership contention, it will come down to how quickly their internal factions get their act together. If they spend months squabbling and infighting they'll be giving Labor a free kick.

[EBB]

[member34258]

[Northern Pie]

Sorry once again member, just breaking the tension...will remove mine...

Cheers

[member34258]

Don't be silly Np.

[EBB]

Popcorn I need MORE popcorn...ok guys GO!!!

[HAL]

[stui magpie]

[Alec. J. Hidell]

[Northern Pie]

Like Stui I am certainly no political commentator but here is my 2 cents;

*Democrats certainly a dead political party

*Labor party's victory was certainly comprehensive, but with less than 3% swing to defend they will have to ensure that they deliver on their economic platform and changes to their IR laws

*John Howard loses his own seat tells me that at least half of the swing to Labor nationally was because they thought as the electorate of Bennalong thought, that John was passed his used by date and it was time for a change rather than because of sound policy differences.

*Greens held unique power in this election and got a lot of Labor candidates across the line with preferences. Will they be so generous in 3 years when a certain pulp mill is approved in Tasmania.
*The Liberal party's push during the campaign concerning Unions certainly seems to have a little bit of credence...bit of a worry for Labor in 3 years time if they allow them to go too far..

*Liberal party copped a whack but not dead and buried, Costello going to the back bench allows them to mount an early attack with some fresh new faces...before anybody says they have no chance because of this....ummm 12 months ago Labor did it and got the swing they needed. Looking forward to seeing what they can come up with and if they can do it the same way and as well as Rudd and the Labor party did 12 months ago.

*looking forward to seeing the changes although a bit worried as the Labor party as it has a bad rap regarding running things economically, but if Rudd sticks to his word it will be interesting to see how Australia goes in comparison to the last 12 years...all this time Labor have been claiming the economic growth is a result of all the work done the last time they held power...I hope they can keep the ball rolling.

*Indigenous Australians will get their sorry, but will they get compensated for stolen wages and be given the Booster shot they are needed instead of the band-aide which has just been slapped on them.

*Will be interesting to see how they institute the Labor re-new able energy and environmental policy without pissing off the Big mines etc...which provide and will provide the honey pot is extremely large for whoever is in government to dip into. Oh and the Greens....No one wants to see Peter Garrett out of politics (he may perform songs again!)

*Pauline never to be seen again.....

*Liberals may need to do as Labor and find some high profile supporters and bring them on board to contest some marginal seats.

And

As I have said before I think things will tick along as they have been and it will be a while before we see the changes take effect on a real level.

I woke up this morning and the sun was shining and i looked out the window and the country I live in is still pretty bloody spectacular....which will never change I hope regardless of who sits in Canberra arguing....

Cheers

[stui magpie]

^

[nomadjack]

It is rare Stui. Has only happened once before in Australia with the Libs in power all over for about 8 months I think it was back in the late 1920s. Would think it will be ALP in WA might be in trouble but they don't go until 2009. NSW as well but not until 2011. ACT are up in 2008 but Labor will win there. NT in 2009, but SA, Qld, Tas, and Vic don't go until 2010.

Libs are in real trouble. Don't normally agree with Andrew Bolt but he made a real good point this morning on Insiders. Being out of government at all levels means a big drop in donations and finances in general. It also makes it hard to attract good candidates and train and keep good staff. Organisationally they are in danger of imploding. Howard has also really narrowed the party's support base by ostracizing those who generally agree with his economic approach but who hate his position on social issues. It is those like the NSW uglies which now dominate the party and will make it hard to attract new blood.

Don't kid yourself NP. 3% is bloody hard to peg back against a first term government. Whitlam is the only government since ww2 to get just one term and you could never accuse Rudd of being Whitlamesque. The average is closer to four terms at the federal level, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Libs have lost a lot of young talent, but look what Labor has picked up. Bill Shorten, Greg Combet, Gary Gray from WA, and Maxine McKew could all walk into a frontbench position without losing sleep. Nice position to be in.

Also Hanson got over the 4% threshhold Member so she's in line for a nice payout. Hope she chokes on it.

One final point. Don't underestimate what an achievement this has been for Labor and what is says about how the electorate felt about Howard and the Libs. This is the largest swing ever to a Labor government at the federal level. Bigger than Hawke and bigger than Whitlam in 1972.

[David]

What have we learnt?

- Three years is a very, very long time in politics: people were making ridiculous predictions about Labor being 'out of office for a decade or more' after the 2004 election (and even more so when Beazley was given the leadership again), and yet, here we are, three years later, with Labor achieving victory in a landslide.

- A smart political party will put those three years to their advantage: I, like many people, thought Labor were insane when they gave the leadership to Beazley after Latham. Little did I know, they were planning for Rudd to take over around 12 months before the election, to give him just the right amount of time to establish himself as leader without getting too boring. It worked.

- All the same, the Liberal Party are going to have to work hard if they're to get back government next time. They're leader-less at the moment, and without an obvious replacement (much like the Collingwood Football Club actually), and are now in the awkward position of having many of their ideologies taken by the new prime minister. How are they going to provide an alternative to Rudd's labor? Their best chance lies in all the doomsayers being right, and Labor being totally hopeless in government. Otherwise, they may be forced to play off all the little scandals that accumulate during Rudd's first term. It's inevitable that something's going to happen, unless Rudd really does have the integrity to match his smirk.

- Australia is desperately in need of a new Democrats. There was very little choice this election for the people within the ideological spectrum of the Greens (left) to the two major parties (right). I reckon there are more of these people than you'd think, especially in the younger generation. Whatever happens, I am predicting that in 50 years same-sex marriage will be regarded as being as normal as heterosexual marriage, religion will be relegated to the fringes of society, and unions and the concept of multiculturalism will have become a long distant memory. Of course, I could be completely wrong, but we do know for a fact that societal expectations change over time - and the two major parties we've got at the moment are very, very old-fashioned.

That's it, I'm starting my own political party

- Thank god we don't live in America. I'm not in love with Rudd or anything, but I would gladly take him any day over Hillary, Obama, Giuliani, Schwarzeneggar, Oprah or whatever other clowns they've got stored away for 2008. I like sanity, and there's a little bit more of that in Australia's elections, thankfully.

- Oh and, cornettos are better than drumsticks.

[Donny]

[stui magpie]

3% may not sound like a lot, but I agree it will be a massive task for the Libs at the next federal election.

Rudd is no fool and from what I've seen has no massive, revolutionary changes in the wind that would ostracise voters, so unless something goes very badly wrong, he's got 2 terms at least.

IMO, the Libs should look to get their act together ASAP with the intent of working hard as a credible opposition and looking to hold ground at the next election and at best chip away at the lead. They may be able to use state governments and capture some local level dissent, but there's no way they could win back government after 1 term, Rudd would have to frig up and lose it.