Melbourne Cup preview.

[Dr Alf Andrews]

Dr.ALF’s expert assessment of the Cup runners.


PERSIAN PUNCH : Unlike the rest of the refugees in the field, this bloke is actually proven on Australian turf, having been placed behind Jezabeel. But that was last century for God’s sake. The poor old bugger is 9-Y-O. Nevertheless his recent form reads nicely. I’m just not sure how much credence to put on British form.

SKY HEIGHTS : Great run at Caulfied and generally well credentialled. But how often has this horse let his backers down when it really mattered. Besides this, he’s drawn a shocking barrier. I’m also put off by his weight. It takes a really good horse to carry 56.5 in a Melbourne Cup and win. I mean a REALLY good horse. Sky Heights just has too many convictions for mine.

UNIVERSAL PRINCE : Has had more excuses than Hawthorn in his last couple of outings. In the Cox Plate he was supposed to have lost because he had the hots for Sunline. They should have called it the C.o.c.k.s Plate, hey … In the McKinnon he was supposed to have injured himself at the start of the race, then somehow made a miraculous recovery in the last 600m. Sounds more like a classic case of saving him for Tuesday to me. Don’t be surprised if he runs a very big race. But if he does, Sheehan’s ride on him in the McKinnon run will go down in history as the most diabolical ride since J.J.Miller pulled up Galilee in the same race in 1966.

CAITANO : Did nothing in the Cox Plate and his O/S record looks ordinary to me.

GIVE THE SLIP : Not a real top-liner going by his form. I’m prepared to risk him.

MARIENBARD : Ditto.

KAAPSTAD WAY : Has never won beyond 2000m and did nothing in the McKinnon. Was going OK about a month ago but that form won’t help him here. Not for me.

YIPPYIO : Great run last year … but he’s a year older now and his form’s not as good.

FREEMASON : Can’t have him on his McKinnon run. And as much as I respect his trainer, you’d have to say that the cerise army has a pretty poor record in this race.

CURATA STORM : Curata Who? This horse somehow won a big race at Rosehill back in April and has done jack shit since. Ran stone motherless in the Caulfield Cup.

Mr. PRUDENT : One of the few proven two-milers in the field, and you have to respect that. But how can you back a horse that ran last in the Geelong Cup? Expect him to tail out for a big finish. But this bloke is no Kiwi.

PASTA EXPRESS : I’d prefer him in my bolognaise sauce.

ETHEREAL : Definitely the class factor in this. En-zedder who cleaned up in Brisbane earlier in the year, winning the Queensland Oaks. This latest trans-Tasman raid has been even more successful, with an excellent placing behind the mighty Northerly at Caulfied, followed by that gutsy Cup win at the heath the following week. Has been fair-dinkum pitch-forked into this race with 52kg. She’s drawn OK at 13. The only negative is that she’s untried at the distance … BUT this is one of those years when there are only three proven two-milers in the field. And one of those is a 9 year old, one is an 8 year old, while the other has been racing like a woolly goat. So, I’m prepared to take a chance on this mare at the distance.

HILL OF GRACE : Gee. There’s nothing wrong with the form of this girl … except that she doesn’t seem to win many. Has been close up in top company at her last three runs. But has never won beyond 2040m. And the bad barrier won’t help.

INAFLURY : The sort of horse that can ruin a jockey’s reputation. Avoid her like anthrax. She’ll pull like Fitzroy James Dio and will be the first horse beaten. Expect to see her going backwards at the 800m.

BIG PAT : How the hell did this thing get to be favourite? Won the St.Leger at the Valley. Big hairy deal. Won the South Australian Derby. So what? Made up ground to run a distant third in the Valley Cup. Bravo. This is a “talking” favourite if ever there was one. Should help to create some value among the genuine chances.

REENACT : As they say in the classics, “others make more appeal”.

KARASI : This could have been a genuine lightweight chance at good odds had it not been for the wide barrier. Has been consistent over this distance, including a Brisbane Cup placing. Unfortunately, I think the barrier will kill his chances here. When he won at Geelong he was handily placed throughout. That’s very hard when you’ve drawn 19. But if Glenn Boss is able to fluke a nice sit, this horse could put some big value into the trifecta.

MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU : I’m expecting his trainer, M.D.Moroney, to eventually become the most successful trainer in this race since Bart. Will this be Cup No.2 for the Cups King of the 21st Century? I’m not all that confident. He couldn’t have possibly had a more cushy run on Saturday. And the second placegetter (Spirit of Westbury) meets him 3kg better at the weights for sitting in the death. But I still expect this horse to be not far away at the finish.

PROPHET’S KISS : Well named … because you can kiss your profits goodbye if you back this one. Has been running on when it’s all over in shorter races and I suggest she’ll be running on when it’s all over in this. She’ll be the one just out of camera range, running a fast-finishing eighth.

SPIRIT OF WESTBURY : Looks beautifully weighted for this. Well beaten by Rain Gauge at the Valley, but is 2.5 kg better off at the weights … and the winner has drawn the bleachers. Then ran a top race against Maythehorsebewithu … and is meeting that horse (don’t ask me to type it again) 3 kg better after having a much tougher run. Must be a serious query at the distance however. And I don’t think I could stand seeing that little prick ride another big race winner.

RAIN GAUGE : Strong win at the Valley and had been racing well prior to that. But that barrier really is diabolical. Will have to come from a very long way back and will need a very solidly run race to have any chance.

RUM : A waste of barrier 1 really because this horse is a plodder who gets well back. Looked the best of a pretty unimpressive lot (from a Cup point of view) in the McKinnon. Might come into this very strongly if there is a lot of rain. He did run a close third to Sunline on a heavy track at Caulfield when resuming back in September.

CELESTIAL SHOW : Great run at cricket-score odds in the Caulfield Cup. Was this a fluke? Maybe not, because she was only narrowly beaten by Inaflury three starts back at Caulfield. She’s got no weight. She’s drawn reasonably. OK. So why can’t she win? Maybe the fact that she’s never won beyond 2200 could put some doubts on her at the trip. But then she did run 7th in this race last year, so there goes that theory. Really this Cup field is as weak as piss … so you’d have to give this mare a real chance.


Dr.ALF’s CUP TRIFECTA

1. ETHEREAL
2. SPIRIT OF WESTBURY
3. RUM

Other chances: UNIVERSAL PRINCE, HILL OF GRACE, KARASI, MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU, RAIN GAUGE, CELESTIAL SHOW.


floreat pica
**************
My Ph.D. thesis, "Football: the People's Game?" is now available for viewing and/or downloading at http://alf.magpies.net

[PeterWH]

I watched Maythehorsebewithyou win the SAAB on TV on Saturday.I was very impressed.I believe that the trainer trained the winnerof last years M.C. who incidently won the SAAB as well.
I am putting my dollare on this horse.recon you will be on a winner or a place getter.
Catch you all later

Peter in Sunny Sydney

PeterWH

[ed healey]

Great summary Doc.
Ive just cancelled my tabform order.
My sister will confuse me some on monday when she sends me the numerology tips.
Does anyone know how to politely tell your sister that her
numerology tips are crap?
Every friday i get the form for melb races emailed to me by her in numerology order,i dont think ive read one of them in full.

anyway back to the cup.
An ordinary lot of unproven 2 milers in my opinion.
As a victim of the punt for many years,its my honest opinion that this is the one race in the year that you should not bet in.
Its always so hard to decipher who and how.
So for me win/place bets are out in the melb cup.

My system is to couple 6 horses in a quinella cost $14.
if it gets in you always win,as the div is sure to be above that outlay.
but its a day to just sit back,watch the telly and have a drink and a feed.
So my 6 way quinella is
Mairenbard
Celestial Show
Ethereal
Yippyio
Maythe horsebe with u
Spirit of westbury.shane dye would not come from hong kong for nought.
dont care what order.

And just as a silly question.
I just bought a pack of cat milk for our kitten,and there is a hole to put a straw in the top of the carton.
maybe this could be Alfs next thesis ,the straw drinking cat.
does anyone have a cat that uses one?

[Pies rock]

Excellent summary Doc. I was in shock when Big Pat was so short a few weeks back, now it's bloody favourite. With all the confidence in the world I can say it does not have a chance!!! Not sure what to make of Maythehorsebewithu. I think Rain Gauge is a much classier horse, although its staying ability has to be questioned. Only recently has transformed from a middle distance/sprinter to a stayer. I've put some money on Rain Gauge so I hope it will come up with the goods! Got some on Ethereal also. Have Cox/Melbourne doubles with Universal Prince and Kaapstad, but both look gorrrrrrrnnnnnn. I hope Universal Prince was being held back, doubt it though.

1) Ethereal
2) Rain Gauge
3) Celestial Show

Other chance: Yippyio.

[Bones]

Pretty damn poor lot of horses going around in all races on Tuesday...

Well there is only one nag that i fancy and thats Rain Gauge...A small saver on Inaflurry because Cassidy murdered it in the Caulfield Cup, he will get his one day.
Bet eachway on those 2....

Then load up as much as you can afford in the Trifecta. Always good pay on Cup...

Rain Gauge
Inaflurry
Persian Punch
Etheral
Place...Universal Prince, Freemason, Big Pat, Maythehorsebewithu, Rum....keep an eye on the betting of the 2 Saeed nags...

[Brown26]

Excellent summary Doctor, you should start a mail out.

I think there's some money to be had here - simply because of the lack of 2 mile class.

I'm not even going to pick a winner, but I'll say Hill of Grace, Celestial Show and Etheral should make a good go. Just have a feeling about Yippyio for a place - streaming home on the outside... maybe

Pies for Premiers 2002, 3, 4, 5, 6....

[magpie joffa]

RUM will win the melbourne cup fair dinkum if this bloke was any bigger they would need a jumbo jet just to transport him, he will carry 49 kg and note he ran home very very nicely in the mckinnon stakes.

RUM RUM RUM U BUGGER YOU BEAUTY.

'My God'i wouldnt go into hoddle street tonight for quids'.Bill jacobs 3aw, minutes after our premiership'That is like winning tattslotto and losing your ticket and some bloke puts it in the herald sun that he found it'Rex Hunt 3aw during the 1990 grand final'Well thats about as useful as a fly wire door in a submarine'sammy newman 3aw during the 1990 grand final

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Nick's tips

1)Rain Gauge
2)Sky Heights
3)Yippyio

"Good 'Ol Collingwood Forever"

[This message has been edited by NICK THE PIE MAN (edited 05 November 2001).]

[foxy]

1. spirit of westbury (dye knows what he's doing)
2. pasta express (gotta love the name)
3. phar lap

[Brown26]

Rain Rain rain and here it is - the night of nights - time to choose the tips..... doh!

Rain = RUM - has a real crack - haven't seen his latest odds but would've like to put a bit on him earlier in the week - sheez.

Celestial show gae a glimpse last year and on "finals experience" and a wet track might just have the better of a few of the younger heavier horses.

Yippyio gets the third spot on the trifecta for sheer value for money - I just have a feeling he's got a chance over this distance. Maybe.

Rain killed any chance of Hill of Grace getting up there - and poor old Etheral's too heavy for my mind.

What ever the ending - have a great day tomorrow. I intend to drink my winnings (if there are any!!)

- Ben



Pies for Premiers 2002, 3, 4, 5, 6....

[MargOZ]

I'm hopeless at this but here goes!

1. Ethereal
2. Karasi
3. Spirit of Westbury

GO PIES!

Marg

[Millane42]

1. Sky Heights
2. Ethereal
3. Celestial Show

i don't know anything about racing but i'm putting my money on these.....

[michy]

I have put money on

Sky heights - to win
Etheral - place
Big Pat - place

At school i got Spirit of Westbury

good luck!!!!!!

[JLC]

Im on Yippyio - proven at the distance, track will suit, has an experienced and proven jockey in Beadman.

Yippyio is my sentimental favourtie

APA

EVERYONE IS A COLLINGWOOD SUPPORTER ITS JUST THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE IN DENIAL

[Lockyer24]

1. sky heights
2. hill of grace
3. celestial show

havent backed a winner since 91, im due for it.
although i wont be suprised if (thanks to the lovely weather) a donkey wins it.

dame oliver is also due for another, a jockey of his class should have more melb cups under the belt.

GO YOU GOOD THING