Collingwood vs Carlton: Match Preview

[Johnson#26]

Collingwood vs Carlton: Match Preview
Match Preview
10 Apr 2005


Collingwood vs Carlton: Match Preview:

B: C.Morrison, Prestigiacomo, Wakelin.
HB: Clement, J.Cloke, Woewodin.
C: Lonie, Rowe, Johnson.
HF: Caracella, Rocca©, Davis.
F: Holland, Tarrant, Lockyer
R: C.Cloke, Licuria, Burns.
INTER: Egan, R.Shaw, Maxwell, Walker.
EMERG: T.Cloke, Cole, King.

IN: Maxwell, Egan, J.Cloke.
OUT: Williams, Cole, O’Bree (omitted).

New: Chris Egan, 18, Murray Bushrangers.

*Please note: I select my side prior to the official announcement by the selection committee. It is based on my opinion, unless stated otherwise.

Only two rounds in to the 2005 season, and already – Collingwood are feeling the pinch. Two matches – two losses – both to sides that the Magpies were expected to defeat – comfortably. Now, whilst not in crisis mode just yet, the Pies are staring down the barrel of three losses to start the season, and they now meet a rejuvenated Carlton – buoyed by their come from behind victory over Essendon last week. The reigning Wizard Cup Premiers, the Blues will be seeking revenge for their walloping at the hands of Collingwood only three years ago. Back then, the Blues were heading towards their first ever Wooden Spoon, as well as a major debit. On the other end of the footballing scale, Collingwood sat smugly in the top four, and were destined to reach their first Grand Final in 12 years, only to fall short to Brisbane by nine points. Now the tables have been turned. The Pies are under the pump, and it is the Blues with the upper hand. The stage is set, and all is in readiness for a massive match.

We begin our analysis in defence, where a few adjustments have been made to what we normally see when we take our seats prior to the match. Jason Cloke – the eldest of David’s three sons – will take his place in defence – after a week at Williamstown in the VFL. Strangely, we are yet to see Cloke at senior level this year – although a modified pre-season may prove the reason to many Collingwood supporters’ queries. Cloke is one of our main play makers when in form – with the 2002 season highlights package reinforcing this fact. His ability to win possessions as a loose man floating across halfback was a catalyst in many a victory three years ago, and was then being hailed as the modern day Glen Archer. Since his fatal blow landed on Crow Tyson Edwards’ in the 2002 Preliminary Final – which subsequently forced him to miss the Grand Final a week later – his form and confidence have been low, effecting his skills and decisions made during the heat of the battle. After having spent a week gaining touch with the Seagulls, it is time for Cloke to return to the senior side, and starting at centre-halfback against Carlton. Another change to the defensive unit is the move of 2000 Brownlow Medallist Shane Woewodin to where he began his football career – halfback. After a good match as a sweeper last week, it is time for Woewodin to spend a few weeks setting up play across halfback. Obviously, Collingwood’s main defensive concern is its ability to counter Carlton’s brilliant yet enigmatic full forward Brendan Fevola. The Michael Tuck Medallist only a few weeks ago, Fevola has that magic ability to snatch the game by the scruff of the neck. In the past two weeks, Fevola has struggled to recapture his blistering pre-season form, but make no mistake – he will be out to sting the Magpies on Saturday afternoon. His most likely match up will be the ever durable James Clement. Clement has yet again enjoyed a good start to the season, holding Scott Welsh to only one goal last week. The 2004 All-Australian has performed well on Fevola in the past, and has the leg speed and strength in the air to hold him. It is sure to be an exciting duel – and it will be the marquee match-up which will drag supporter through the gates. The other half of Carlton’s exciting forward duo is big Lance Whitnall. Big Lance has enjoyed a brilliant beginning to 2005, after a few years of mediocre performances. His re-emergence as a power forward has lifted the Blues stocks remarkably, and is huge threat to a Collingwood victory. Whitnall’s deceptive pace, mixed with his height and excellent football brain poses a huge problem for Malthouse to work with. Who is his ideal match-up? Clement is to tackle Fevola, bringing it down to a battle between two players - Simon Prestigiacomo and Shane Wakelin. It is likely that Malthouse will elect to use the latter, due to Wakelin’s advantage in mobility as well as his pace – which is sure to cause Whitnall plenty of grief, as Wakelin gallivants out of defence. In other match-ups, little Eddie Betts, the fourth pick in the 2005 Pre-Season draft, has already proven his worth as an AFL footballer, snagging five goals in his two AFL matches to date. Betts enjoys some excellent pace, matched with a cheeky ability to find the big sticks with ease. Despite his youth at AFL level, Betts should still be kept in check, as players like him can tear a match apart in as little as two minutes. His minder for the afternoon is likely to be the reliable Chad Morrison. The former Eagle has enjoyed some good football in his first two matches in Collingwood colours, and is the man to quell the influence of Betts. Although he may lack pace, Morrison is a cool customer in defence, and is one of the more experienced players on Collingwood’s list with 150 games to his credit. Another of Carlton’s talented forward group is Justin Davies. Collingwood supporters require no reminders of Davies abilities – his four last quarter goals in round seven last year tore the heart out the Magpies. Although small in size, Davies has that ‘x-factor’ about him, making him a valuable football commodity. His pace and skills are dangerous, as is his ability to slip clear from his minder at stoppages. These factors add up to a dangerous footballer, and Malthouse is sure to remember the events of round seven last year. Expect to see the courageous Tarkyn Lockyer line up on the menacing Davies, whose footballing brain will assist him against the Blues pocket danger man. The last potential Carlton danger man in the Blues forward line is the tall and lanky Adrian DeLuca. The former Port Melbourne ruckman played all 22 games in his debut season last year, and booted two goals in Carlton’s come from behind victory last week. Although he spent the majority of last season in the ruck, DeLuca is expected to spend most of 2005 as a tall forward. If, as predicted, he lines up in that position on Saturday afternoon, it is most likely that dour Magpie defender Simon Prestigiacomo will line up on the lumbering Blue this week. This match-up suits Collingwood, as DeLuca lacks pace to run off Prestigiacomo, and the Magpie man’s experience will hold him in good stead.

In the midfield, an important battle looms in the context of the outcome of the match. Although they are missing Buckley through injury, Collingwood still have a midfield capable of dominating a game. Players such as Licuria, Burns, Johnson and Rowe are all capable of winning enough of the ball to trouble the opposition – although Johnson does lead the league for turnovers by foot. Carlton, too, have a wonderful midfield combination, which definitely matches the Magpies mix. Nick Stevens, Heath Scotland, Scott Camporeale, Matthew Lappin and the skipper Anthony Koutoufides are all first rate midfielders, who will ensure that Collingwood has its work cut out on the weekend. As Magpies coach Malthouse stated during the week, without Buckley, Collingwood owns no player who would be considered one who should be tagged. On Carlton’s side of the ledger, they have plenty. Stevens is the Blues number one runner through the midfield, regularly winning 25 or more possessions a game, with more then ¾ of them effective. Each week, he is the man the opposition look to negate in order to win the midfield war. No doubt Malthouse will assign Licuria to carry out his task. Licuria began his purple patch at Collingwood as a tagger, and has since graduated to becoming a ball winning midfielder. Whilst he has always maintained a high level of performance, it has been suggested that perhaps it is time Licuria returned to his former footballing life – a tagger. He is the ideal man to quell the influence of Stevens, with his pace and tenacity at a contest. He is sure to give Stevens a devil of a time in the centre, holding him at bay whilst winning his own ball. The second of the deadly Blues midfield duo, Scott Camporeale, is set to write another chapter in the continuing the battle of Collingwood’s nuggetty Brodie Holland and himself. The angst stems back to round 17 2003, when Holland locked Camporeale up all afternoon, with the Blues frustrations boiling over at halftime, allegedly breaking Holland’s nose. Then, in round seven last season, Holland tapped the Carlton dynamo on the head with his boot off the ball, earning himself a four week penalty at the hands of the AFL Tribunal. It has been compelling over the past two years, and they are sure to heckle the living daylights out of each other. Holland’s negating tactics have landed him in hot water in recent years, but no doubt he will be keyed up for the occasion. In other match-ups, the hard running Johnson – who wracked up a career high 34 possessions last week, is expected to face off with his great mate Heath Scotland. Along with current Saint Mark McGough, the three formed a pranking partnership – constantly getting up the noses of fellow team-mates. Both are hard running footballers, with Scotland being one who plays close to the packs, whilst Johnson is a hard running, who moves wide for his touches. Another match-up should be Collingwood’s Scott Burns up against the skilful and talented Matthew Lappin. Both are play in contrasting styles, but Burns is the perfect match-up for the immensely talented Lappin. Burns is an in-and-under midfielder, who loves nothing more then to bang bodies and lock the ball in. Lappin, on the other hand, is one who resides wide on the wings and flanks, zoning off his opponents and setting up play for the Blues. Burns is the perfect man to keep the 2004 All-Australian quiet. He will never let Lapping loose, locking him up in the midfield and not allowing him an easy kick. Burns has endured a slow start to the season, but is sure to be primed for the Blues superstar. Finally, we come to Koutoufides. The footballing superman of six years ago has had his star dimmed by nagging injuries to both his knees and hamstrings, but has come back in the opening two weeks of the season to star for his team. His re-emergence will have Malthouse worried, and he will need to play a decent card to hold the Blues star to a quiet game. The answer is simple. Nick Maxwell. Maxwell is a strong and skilled footballer, who never takes a backward step. His height and deceptive pace will cause problems for ‘Kouda’, and this could be the day where Maxwell steps up to the plate to make a name for himself in AFL football. In the ruck duels, Carlton has the upper hand, with Barnaby French and DeLuca forming a formidable ruck division. Without the usual suspects in the ruck, Collingwood have been struggling to patch up its ailing ruck group. Former NBL basketballer David Fanning was trialled in round one, but still has a fair way to go. Cameron Cloke was used to good effect last week, with the assistance of part-time ruckmen Anthony Rocca and Tristan Walker. Whilst they did a solid job last week, it will take a super effort to hold the dominant French – who is in excellent form at the moment. The new alterations to the ruck rules have assisted French, who, after 100 games of AFL at both Port Adelaide and Carlton, is coming into his prime. It will take a mighty effort from Cloke to hold French this week, but one thing is for sure – he won’t give in without a fight, inheriting his fathers fighting qualities.

In the forward line, Collingwood has the all important height advantage with both Tarrant and Rocca ready to cause enormous problems for Dennis Pagan. With the loss of Bret Thornton in the dying minutes of the Carlton vs West Coast clash in the 2004 Wizard Cup Grand Final, the Blues lack tall defenders capable of holding Collingwood’s combination at bay. Tarrant and Rocca – particularly the former – have had a poor start to the season, with Tarrant coming under fire for his supposed ‘lack’ of passion for the game. Rocca began well last week as captain, but struggled soon after the beginning of the 3rd term. To be able to win, Collingwood require the two forward targets to be on their game, and if ever the two were to hit form in 2005, now is the time. Without Thornton, the Blues lack height and strength in defence. For now, Karl Norman and Digby Morrell have been thrust into the spotlight, to be able to hold down the impact of the two Magpies dynamos. Whilst they both have the height, it is doubtful that they contain both the pace and mobility to match Tarrant and Rocca, as they lead up the ground searching for their marks. Another option for Carlton is their brave 2004 Best and Fairest David Teague, although Pagan may believe that he lacks both the height and strength to hold his Magpie counterparts – although one thing is for sure – he’ll give it a red hot go. At ground level, Collingwood’s new recruit – Essendon and Brisbane veteran Blake Caracella – proved a brilliant acquisition last week as the main small forward – scoring four goals and four behinds to almost single-handedly pull the Pies over the line last week against the Crows. Adelaide also felt the impact of little Leon Davis, as a small forward who lit up Telstra Dome last Sunday with his skills and pace yet again coming to the fore. These two will most likely find their match-ups being the silky skilled Ryan Houlahan and the agile Jarred Waite. Both players are highly skilled and have plenty of pace and run in their legs. Caracella and Davis will both have to be on their guard to watch the Blue boys run and drive out of the defensive zone.

In a final prediction, in this Rivalry Round – the new concept adopted by the AFL – Collingwood, after copping it from all sections of the media this week – should have more then enough ammunition to fight back against the old enemy, and prevail in what will be a tight contest. The midfield battle will be an even one, but if Tarrant and Rocca can gain the advantage in the forward line, they have a solid chance for a victory. FINAL PREDICTION: COLLINGWOOD BY 3 POINTS.