The basic scenario is...

TaZ_LuVs_EmIn3m · Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2003 10:43 pm

mmm seems like the best thing 2 do is win best games which will be very hard considerign we got sydney and essendon who seem to be gettin better every week! These games will test us i just hope we can match the tasks and be successful!

DaicosMagic · Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2003 10:56 pm

It's not that simple. If we only beat Sydney but Brisbane, Adelaide and Fremantle win both, we don't get a top 4 spot. Adelaide only have to win 1 also, because their % is superior. If we don't win both, we're screwed, simple as that

Magpie Since 1986 · Traitor Joined: 03 Aug 2002 Location: Collingwood

Pied Piper · Joined: 20 May 2003 Location: Pig City

I think the last few weeks have shown we can't rely on anyone beating anyone. Who picked the Swans to knock off Brisbane at the Gabba. There are no simple equations here, even with two rounds to go.

Form schnorm. Upsets will keep a'happening. Hopefully starting with us in Sydney next week.

Newelly · newelly Joined: 21 Apr 1999 Location: Perth again.

I'd like to disagree with the your "likely scenario" but I've seen it play out too many times in the past to make a case for the opposite.

AGE · Joined: 06 Sep 2002 Location: Docking Bay 94

STOKA35 · Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Mount Barker. South Australia

lets take it one week at a time

freddie foxx · Joined: 08 May 2003

these types of assumptions are pointless, as stoka said take it one week at a time. There's no way to prove where we will end up.

MG77B · Joined: 05 Jul 2003 Location: Sydney

1st you were wrong about Wowoedin and now you will be wrong about the Swans...we will pump them this week....
I'll buy you beers all day at the Cricketers if I'm wrong MG.....

Newelly · newelly Joined: 21 Apr 1999 Location: Perth again.

A Case for winning our final two games:

We beat Adelaide emphatically and yes we always play well against the Crows but this year they are better than last year as they have Ronnie Burns and Carey on their list. Cloke played a career game and seems to be fulfilling his potential as a top class negating player.

Ball and possibly Saddington on the sidelines means we should, for a change, dominate the ruck contests giving Buckley, Obree, Woewodin and co first use of the ball. This combined with our forward line could well mean a proctologically painful night for Sydneys defence. Fraser is playing better now than he was the first time these two teams met, as is Rocca and Cloke. Also due to Sydneys standing at the time, Collingwood seemed to approach the round 6 game with some complacency.

As for Essendon quite simply they have to hit a flat spot soon (and haven't played quality opposition for a few weeks and wont till they meet us) and our game against them early in the year was and still is our worst for the year. We did get belted late in the season last year by the Dons, but we are in better form at the same point in the year than we were last year and have matured somewhat as a team. In round 5 this year Hird ran riot, as did Cupido but the Pies should not fall for Sheedy's tricks a second time round.

A Case for losing our final two games

In recent times we have struggled against these two teams especially late in the season. Both teams seem to have the players that unsettle our game plan, elusive forwards and top midfielders (Hird Lloyd, Cupido, O'Loughlin, Goodes, Hall, Williams). Our win against Adelaide and its margin defied expectations, but we have beat the Crumbly Cows the last 5 times we played them. Our team is still prone to some basic skill errors and errors of judgement. This hurts against top opposition and is magnified when on the road. Even though Clokey had a great game last week, he's still young and his form will fluctuate more so than seasoned veterans.

I`m now going to attempt to forget about footy for the rest of the week (not fking likely unless there is a state wide power blackout) until Saturday rolls around again and the only thing that enters the mind is Collingwood.

M@®© · 1972 Joined: 13 Apr 2003 Location: Victoria - Rowville

I dont think it matters if we finish 1-4 or 5-8 good teams will win finals no matter where they are on the ladder, when you start thinking we need to finish 1-2 to me that shows you aint confident in the team winning. even if we finish top 4 and lose the 1st week well we end up playing the sides below us anyway, its no point finishing top 4 unless you win that first final. If we finish 5th we should be a good enough side to beat the sides below us. Trying to predict where we finish and who we play is like trying to predict the weather. The competition is so even anyone can win it from any spot. Mind you the interstate sides will have a slight advantage if playing home finals but that really doesnt count that much Port have a terrible finals record at home. Sydney and freo havent really experienced finals that often so where thye have the home ground advantage teams like Collingwood Essendon have some finals advantage which would help slightly.

MissMagpie_20 · Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2003 11:24 pm

Its scary to think how much we can go up or down the ladder depending on the next 2 games. If all the likely teams win over the next 2 weeks and we win both games, we finish second, if we win one, we finish 5th, we we lose both we finish 7th! Its unbeleiveable. Having said that, its true, if were worthy of a Premiership, we should be able to beat any side in the 8 regardless of where we finish!

nitric · Joined: 13 May 2002 Location: Canberra, ACT

You want a scenario?

Here's a scenario.

The Swans beat the Pies in an absolute blockbuster at the Olympic Venue,
then clobber Melbourne in the last round, to finish Second.

Adelaide beat the Kangas (not surprisingly).

The Pies bounce back to beat the Bombers in the last round.

Freo and Port win their respective derbies.

As such the ladder finishes up like this:

Port Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane
Adelaide
Collingwood
Fremantle
WCE
Essendon

That leaves us with a first round finals arrangement that has three games out of four repeating round 22! viz:

PA v Adel at AAMI
Freo v WCE at Subi
Coll v Ess at MCG
and Syd v Bris at SCG (almost a replica of Round 20, but on Sydney's home patch)

Beyond the first round its a bit of a raffle, I admit, but under this scenario, I reckon there's a good chance of the Pies reaching the GF.

Say, PA beats Adel, Syd beats Bris, Coll beats Ess and Freo beat WC, the
second round of finals would be:

Freo v Bris in Perth
Coll v Adel in Melb

I reckon Bris would win, even in Perth, and of course Collingwood has proven it has the Crows measure this year. Therefore the Prelims would be:

PA v Bris at AAMI
Syd v Coll at MCG (poor Syd missing out on a home Prelim because of the MCC's intransigence)

And that leads to (drum roll) ..............

Port Adelaide v Collingwood GF.

Followed by a Collingwood victory etc etc

Thanx for coming, Chokers. But you have to lose one before you win one.

(applause)

AnthonyC · Joined: 09 Aug 2002 Location: Melbourne, Victoria

The only certainty is we are in the 8. Isn't it amazing how this time last year we were absolutely ecstatic that we had made the finals. Now the feeling amongst some is that unless we make the top 4 it's a bit of a letdown.

Our best is good enough to take the flag this year, let's just hope that we win the next 2 to give us a big shot at it. I hope the players remember well the disappointement of last year. September is a whole new ball game, our boys know that now, they will be ready.

MagpieMad · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2003 11:47 am

well said AnthonyC m8, me personally I am estatic we have made the finals for the second year in a row, if you where to offer me this back in 99 I would have sold me left...... well done almost anything for it.
personally I don't really care where we finish up in the 8, whilst I relize that we'd be better off finishing top 4, I'm just happy for the boys and our club to be back where we belong, September.
plus all these senarios give me a headache trying to work it out Smile