playing the percentages

[Pied Piper]

Magpie Fans

A couple of interesting trends have caught The Weed's eye, which may provide some clues to our on-and-off form.

Our percentage is currently 106.97, well in front of our rivals in the lower half of the ladder. But of greater interest are the stats that make up that figure.

Our points "for" are 1319 - behind only West Coast (well in front on an amazing 1485) and Brisbane (a distant second with 1334). Adelaide are fourth with 1318, Fremantle have 1317 and Port Adelaide 1295.

However, our points "against" are 1233, making our defence statistically weaker than any other side in the top eight other than Fremantle (1235) and the Kangaroos (1319). Port are strongest with 995 and, despite being only sixth in points for, have the strongest overall percentage (130.15).

Remember all the hoopla over our miserly "no-name" defence in 2002? We were one of the tightest in the league, whereas our attack was less prolific than most teams. Like other Malthouse sides, our game plan was built around restricting the opposition. This year that trend has reversed.

So - why? Well, despite Fraser spending less time in attack and kicking fewer goals as a result, there is Tarrant, well on track for a goalkicking PB for the year on 32. Didak, despite indifferent form, has managed 19, covering for Nick Davis' loss. Rocca hasn't kicked a goal in four matches but is also on 19, while Leon Davis has been below par with 14 and Molloy's virtual comeback has yielded 12.

But it's in the midfield where we've really picked up - Buckley, Burns, Williams, O'Bree and Woewodin have all contributed here. Even Licuria has eight for God's sake!

Now to defence. Despite our tightness last year, we didn't generate enough run out of the back half, and the match committee regarded that as a crucial aspect in our GF loss. So there's been a lot more tinkering going on down there. Lokan and Rhyce Shaw have been thrown back to add some dash and they are learning the craft. On top of this, Cloke had suspension and injury to contend with before coming back, Presti has been injured three times and on top of that I think we've missed Lockyer's link play and smart disposal.

Then there's the opposition, who are working away to neutralise what helped make us successful last year. Thus Cloke is rarely left loose to mop up, while Lonie gets dragged back by his opponent to prevent him from doing damage further up the ground. How these young players adjust (two and three years into their senior careers respectively) will be crucial in our development for the rest of this year and beyond.

I hope that sheds light on a few things. It certainly makes me more positive that improvement in both defence and attack (and thus overall) will come as the list continues to mature.

What do you think?

The Weed

[Joe]

Some excellent points,especially the one about the teams working harder to neutralise our strengths.

[chalky]

Nice job weed. Our no-name defence has certainly been uncovered this year. They obviously were not given enough respect last year. It would seem that our rivals now work just as hard (maybe harder) on trying to exploit mis-matches like Lonie etc. We are now the hunted
I still think that MM has a bigger picture in mind. He was still toying with different combos down back against the dawks! Once settled, the team will gell in all areas you suggest and hopefully we'll see a more consistant effort in the run home

[Daniel]

I think our 'no name' backline's performance, is also reflected in midfield pressure and their willingness to 'help' defensively.

This year it appears our midfield is more offensive.... which means we have conceeded more goals, but at the same time scored more.

Having Lockyer in the side would help to link up defense and midfield, especially from a kickout.

Maybe next year, with Lockyer's return, Burns mite be seen more in defense.... cos we struggle to contain an attack with multiple small - medium marking forwards.

[Blanch]

I seem to recall a certain Stunner used to help out across half back often.

[drew1602]

Well said Weed...I only come on here on the rare occassion that i get a spare minute..and to hear such refreshing and insightful comments makes me realise what supporting the CFC is all about.

You have hit the nail on the head, the secret to any good backline is their ability regularely play together and know eachother games backwards. Our backline is going through some changes aswell as being hit by some injuries. Lets hope the back six stick together over the comig weeks and grow into a tight unit to compliment our improved forward structure.

[Slayer]

fair points ................

the other relevance are the the fact our core have played less games this year.

cloke missed rounds 1 7 and 8
presti missed rounds 1 2 3 9 and 10 and 13
Wakes missed round 6
Freeborn played most games last year, and has been missing this year.

So there have been some challenges to our defence, inclusions of Cole, Shaw Didak and Holland in cameo appearances.

Most people acknlowledge Presti rarely gets more than one kicked on him, and he's been missing.

If the form improvement continues, should be a good seconf half of the year.

[Pied Piper]