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Realism not Pessimism

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Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:37 pm
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jackcass wrote:
[quote="swoop42"][quote="jackcass"]Yeah, right. Geelong and Hawthorn never bottom out and get low draft picks.

Position at end of H&S since 2000...

Geelong - [b]15th, 12th, 9th, 12th[/b], 4th, 6th, [b]10th[/b], 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 2nd.
Hawthorn - 8th, 6th, [b]10th, 9th, 15th, 14th, 11th,[/b] 5th, 2nd, [b]9th,[/b] 7th, 3rd, 1st, 1st.
Collingwood - 5th, [b]9th[/b], 4th, 2nd, [b]13th, 15th[/b], 5th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 6th.

Bolded the years teams didn't make the 8.

Yeah right...[/quote]

Collingwood finished 15th in 2000 not 5th.

Geelong finished 5th.

We finished 8th at the end of H&A season in 2008.

Not sure of your reasoning in choosing to start with the year 2000 as only a select few players from that draft year would still be playing.

Geelong haven't finished bottom 4 in any of those seasons so they never really "bottomed out" to the extent we and the hawks have.

Pretty sure they never received a priority pick but did benefit from the father son rule.

Points of note:
The hawks were able to snare pick No.1 in the 2001 draft from Fremantle that was ultimately used on there future captain Luke Hodge.
Geelong surprisingly sliding out to 10th in 2006 proved to be fortunate as they snared there future captain in Selwood with pick number 7.
Collingwood were able to snare an additional top 10 selection in the 2006 draft after trading Tarrant to Fremantle. That player would go on to be a premiership player in 2010.[/quote]

My bad, swapped 2000 results. 2000 was an arbitrary point in time, several players from that draft still playing, Riewoldt, Burgoyne, Petrie, Ted Richards among them so it's a time that still shapes squads.

My post was meant as a counter to the suggestion that both Cats and Hawks are perfectly run clubs.
Pretty much, eh?
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Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:40 pm
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jackcass wrote:
[quote="swoop42"][quote="jackcass"]Yeah, right. Geelong and Hawthorn never bottom out and get low draft picks.

Position at end of H&S since 2000...

Geelong - [b]15th, 12th, 9th, 12th[/b], 4th, 6th, [b]10th[/b], 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 2nd.
Hawthorn - 8th, 6th, [b]10th, 9th, 15th, 14th, 11th,[/b] 5th, 2nd, [b]9th,[/b] 7th, 3rd, 1st, 1st.
Collingwood - 5th, [b]9th[/b], 4th, 2nd, [b]13th, 15th[/b], 5th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 6th.

Bolded the years teams didn't make the 8.

Yeah right...[/quote]

Collingwood finished 15th in 2000 not 5th.

Geelong finished 5th.

We finished 8th at the end of H&A season in 2008.

Not sure of your reasoning in choosing to start with the year 2000 as only a select few players from that draft year would still be playing.

Geelong haven't finished bottom 4 in any of those seasons so they never really "bottomed out" to the extent we and the hawks have.

Pretty sure they never received a priority pick but did benefit from the father son rule.

Points of note:
The hawks were able to snare pick No.1 in the 2001 draft from Fremantle that was ultimately used on there future captain Luke Hodge.
Geelong surprisingly sliding out to 10th in 2006 proved to be fortunate as they snared there future captain in Selwood with pick number 7.
Collingwood were able to snare an additional top 10 selection in the 2006 draft after trading Tarrant to Fremantle. That player would go on to be a premiership player in 2010.[/quote]

My bad, swapped 2000 results. 2000 was just an arbitrary start point because there are still players from that draft playing. Just wanted to demonstrate that Cats and Hawks have dipped out of the 8 and snared early picks.
Pretty much, eh?
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Stinger 



Joined: 01 Dec 2003
Location: Canberra

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:40 am
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I posted this in another thread but It probably belongs here:

If you want to compare where we are at, try 2004-2005 when we lost a wave of Grand Final experience - similar to our current situation since 2011.

After 2003 Grand Final we lost: Tarrant, Lokan, Cole, McKee, J Cloke, Kinnear, Betheras, Scotland, Molloy

Since 2011 Grand Final we've lost: Tarrant (again!), H Shaw, Thomas, Johnson, Brown, Didak, Jolly, Dawes, Wellingham, Davis, Maxwell (this year). I'd argue that we've lost more talent in recent years than back in 2003-2006.

We finished 2004 in 13th (2012: 4th)
We finished 2005 in 15th (2013: 6th)
We finished 2006 in 7th (2014: 8-10th)
I'll take a bottoming out to 8th-10th winning 50/50 rather than only a few games for a couple of years.

At the bottom we added the likes of Pendles, Thomas, Cloke, Lumumba, Toovey, Maxwell - these guys all went on to win a flag in 2010.
You need to keep in context the senior players that are no longer part of the team (either retired or moved on).

Now look at the young players coming through - there is some serious talent there - Witts (wait 'til he hits 25), Grundy - ditto, Broomhead, Elliot, Frost, Langdon, Williams, Kennedy, Seedsman; and we haven't even seen Shazza and Freeman yet. This is the next group through - add a CHF, CHB (Frawley anyone) and we'll be looking ok.

I think we'll be having a serious crack in 2016-17-18. If we are still whining about injuries or the coach then, well then there is voice for concern.
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Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:42 am
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The Time Machine is cool.
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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:46 am
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Stinger wrote:
I posted this in another thread but It probably belongs here:

If you want to compare where we are at, try 2004-2005 when we lost a wave of Grand Final experience - similar to our current situation since 2011.

After 2003 Grand Final we lost: Tarrant, Lokan, Cole, McKee, J Cloke, Kinnear, Betheras, Scotland, Molloy

Since 2011 Grand Final we've lost: Tarrant (again!), H Shaw, Thomas, Johnson, Brown, Didak, Jolly, Dawes, Wellingham, Davis, Maxwell (this year). I'd argue that we've lost more talent in recent years than back in 2003-2006.

We finished 2004 in 13th (2012: 4th)
We finished 2005 in 15th (2013: 6th)
We finished 2006 in 7th (2014: 8-10th)
I'll take a bottoming out to 8th-10th winning 50/50 rather than only a few games for a couple of years.

At the bottom we added the likes of Pendles, Thomas, Cloke, Lumumba, Toovey, Maxwell - these guys all went on to win a flag in 2010.
You need to keep in context the senior players that are no longer part of the team (either retired or moved on).

Now look at the young players coming through - there is some serious talent there - Witts (wait 'til he hits 25), Grundy - ditto, Broomhead, Elliot, Frost, Langdon, Williams, Kennedy, Seedsman; and we haven't even seen Shazza and Freeman yet. This is the next group through - add a CHF, CHB (Frawley anyone) and we'll be looking ok.

I think we'll be having a serious crack in 2016-17-18. If we are still whining about injuries or the coach then, well then there is voice for concern.


Agree, I've said we've been rebuilding since 2010. You add the guys who departed at the end of that season to the list you've got and there is some real talent that has left the club. Hopefully the kids can reach those heights.
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rand corp 



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: south east asia

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:16 pm
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Here is where I think we are at:

Premiership clock is not near enough to the magic 12 o'clock-we-are-a-real-chance mark.

We could mount a good case for saying we are on the right side of the dial at around 15 or 10 to midnight. We still have a young list with a lot of talent and potential top flight players coming through. Concern is, no doubt most clubs feel the same about their kids.

Real concern is, as good as our emerging talent is, the new franchise clubs with their heavy draft concessions, are nurturing the absolute cream of junior football talent on their lists and arguably, significantly better than ours.

Questions is, do we have superior resources, facilities, support personal and coaching staff to be ahead of them and get more out of our playing group?
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i hate carlton 



Joined: 05 May 2014


PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:21 pm
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If i hear anyone talk about premiership clocks again I think i'm going to spew.

(With apologies to terry wallace from Year of the Dog)

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AN_Inkling 



Joined: 06 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:01 am
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We have not been rebuilding since 2010. Tweaking, replacing, reconfiguring, not rebuilding. After 2010 we were still aiming for flags. It was at the end of 2012 that we decided we needed to take a step back and move into the rebuild phase. This is where the decision to move on some mid-aged players (Dawes, Wellingham, Thomas, Shaw) and bring in draft picks has come from.

We decided it was time to take a step back to go forward. Even still, I'm sure we've fallen off further than we expected to. The players that we signed as free agents were meant to offset the loss of at least Wellingham and Dawes, but have not really worked out. So, to this point, our mini-rebuild has not gone to plan on the field, but off it, in terms of the deals we have made, I think it's been a definite success.

With the young talent we've been able to bring in over the last couple of years, and the many young players we've exposed to senior football, there is no doubt we are very well placed to turn things around quickly. We have quality talls ready to impact, so the difficult part of building a team is just about done (with ruck maybe the one question in the short term). In all other positions we have multiple young players vying for spots, and that will lift our standards providing we can have a better run with injury. There's plenty of natural progression in this team coming into the next season.

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The Boy Who Cried Wolf 



Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:06 am
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AN_Inkling wrote:
We have not been rebuilding since 2010. Tweaking, replacing, reconfiguring, not rebuilding. After 2010 we were still aiming for flags. It was at the end of 2012 that we decided we needed to take a step back and move into the rebuild phase. This is where the decision to move on some mid-aged players (Dawes, Wellingham, Thomas, Shaw) and bring in draft picks has come from.

We decided it was time to take a step back to go forward. Even still, I'm sure we've fallen off further than we expected to. The players that we signed as free agents were meant to offset the loss of at least Wellingham and Dawes, but have not really worked out. So, to this point, our mini-rebuild has not gone to plan on the field, but off it, in terms of the deals we have made, I think it's been a definite success.

With the young talent we've been able to bring in over the last couple of years, and the many young players we've exposed to senior football, there is no doubt we are very well placed to turn things around quickly. We have quality talls ready to impact, so the difficult part of building a team is just about done (with ruck maybe the one question in the short term). In all other positions we have multiple young players vying for spots, and that will lift our standards providing we can have a better run with injury. There's plenty of natural progression in this team coming into the next season.


All we need now is a game plan...

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The Boy Who Cried Wolf 



Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:11 am
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rand corp wrote:
Here is where I think we are at:

Premiership clock is not near enough to the magic 12 o'clock-we-are-a-real-chance mark.

We could mount a good case for saying we are on the right side of the dial at around 15 or 10 to midnight. We still have a young list with a lot of talent and potential top flight players coming through. Concern is, no doubt most clubs feel the same about their kids.

Real concern is, as good as our emerging talent is, the new franchise clubs with their heavy draft concessions, are nurturing the absolute cream of junior football talent on their lists and arguably, significantly better than ours.

Questions is, do we have superior resources, facilities, support personal and coaching staff to be ahead of them and get more out of our playing group?


We are a billion miles from any premierships.

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The Boy Who Cried Wolf 



Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:14 am
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jackcass wrote:
Stinger wrote:
I posted this in another thread but It probably belongs here:

If you want to compare where we are at, try 2004-2005 when we lost a wave of Grand Final experience - similar to our current situation since 2011.

After 2003 Grand Final we lost: Tarrant, Lokan, Cole, McKee, J Cloke, Kinnear, Betheras, Scotland, Molloy

Since 2011 Grand Final we've lost: Tarrant (again!), H Shaw, Thomas, Johnson, Brown, Didak, Jolly, Dawes, Wellingham, Davis, Maxwell (this year). I'd argue that we've lost more talent in recent years than back in 2003-2006.

We finished 2004 in 13th (2012: 4th)
We finished 2005 in 15th (2013: 6th)
We finished 2006 in 7th (2014: 8-10th)
I'll take a bottoming out to 8th-10th winning 50/50 rather than only a few games for a couple of years.

At the bottom we added the likes of Pendles, Thomas, Cloke, Lumumba, Toovey, Maxwell - these guys all went on to win a flag in 2010.
You need to keep in context the senior players that are no longer part of the team (either retired or moved on).

Now look at the young players coming through - there is some serious talent there - Witts (wait 'til he hits 25), Grundy - ditto, Broomhead, Elliot, Frost, Langdon, Williams, Kennedy, Seedsman; and we haven't even seen Shazza and Freeman yet. This is the next group through - add a CHF, CHB (Frawley anyone) and we'll be looking ok.

I think we'll be having a serious crack in 2016-17-18. If we are still whining about injuries or the coach then, well then there is voice for concern.


Agree, I've said we've been rebuilding since 2010. You add the guys who departed at the end of that season to the list you've got and there is some real talent that has left the club. Hopefully the kids can reach those heights.


I think our kids are alright, the problem is, the kids from GWS and GCS are a lot better..

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jackcass Cancer



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:50 am
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AN_Inkling wrote:
We have not been rebuilding since 2010. Tweaking, replacing, reconfiguring, not rebuilding. After 2010 we were still aiming for flags. It was at the end of 2012 that we decided we needed to take a step back and move into the rebuild phase. This is where the decision to move on some mid-aged players (Dawes, Wellingham, Thomas, Shaw) and bring in draft picks has come from.

We decided it was time to take a step back to go forward. Even still, I'm sure we've fallen off further than we expected to. The players that we signed as free agents were meant to offset the loss of at least Wellingham and Dawes, but have not really worked out. So, to this point, our mini-rebuild has not gone to plan on the field, but off it, in terms of the deals we have made, I think it's been a definite success.

With the young talent we've been able to bring in over the last couple of years, and the many young players we've exposed to senior football, there is no doubt we are very well placed to turn things around quickly. We have quality talls ready to impact, so the difficult part of building a team is just about done (with ruck maybe the one question in the short term). In all other positions we have multiple young players vying for spots, and that will lift our standards providing we can have a better run with injury. There's plenty of natural progression in this team coming into the next season.


Semantics. Look at the quantum of departures at the end of the 2010 season (13-14 players), 2011 season (11-12), 2012 season (8-10), and 2013 season (8-10) and who departed. Yes, we've been competitive, especially in 2011, but you can't update 20-30% of your list and call it a tweak.
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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006


PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:13 pm
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I think we're at a similar stage to where we were in 05/06. Main difference being our experienced stars have already tasted Premiership success. I guess that's a good thing?
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3rd degree Aries



Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Location: John Wren's tote

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:27 pm
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The guts was ripped out of the place the day Chris Dawes left.
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swoop42 Virgo

Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?


Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:00 pm
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3rd degree wrote:
The guts was ripped out of the place the day Chris Dawes left.


Crap.

It was when Corrie was shown the door.

P.S-Any Collingwood player shown the door at the end of this season is likely to miss it, walk into the wall and still be with us in 2015.

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