Who's Coming and Who's is Going? Trades,Delistings,Contracts

[winpies]

[Pies4shaw]

^ Yes - and, in addition, the average (that is, the simple arithmetic mean) is a stupid way of assessing the "age" of a list - if you have , eg, 20 20 year olds and 20 30 year olds, you don't (in any meaningful sense) have a 25-year old list. There are other, more sophisticated measures of central tendency that are probably useful. Personally, I have always preferred to look at lists by reference to age-ranges, rather than averages - eg, so many aged 18 to 22, so many aged 23 to 27, so many aged 28 to 30 and so many aged over 30 (the age-brackets can be cut however one wishes - I'm not saying those categories must be set in stone).

Further - and in any event, the "age profile" of the list doesn't really matter the way it might have done in the past, now there's so much player movement and it isn't necessary to get almost all of your "new" players through the draft and wait 5 years until harvest, as if they were asparagus.

[Pies4shaw]

To that might be added, I suppose, that one can only wonder whether the "difference" in average age between lists (Suns 23.41 years at the "bottom" and Collingwood 24.88 at the "top") is even significant. Eg, trade Varcoe, Reid, Greenwood, Beams and Mayne to Gold Coast for draft picks and the positions of the two clubs are reversed (across a list of 40 players, the total difference between the two "averages" is 58.8 years) - give Gold Coast 5 over-30s and pick up 5 18 year olds in the draft in their place and Gold Coast has suddenly got about 35 years "older" and we've got about 35 years "younger" (that is, a relative "swing" of 70 years). The more you think about it, the less relevant the "simple average" seems.

[K]

^ Yes, yes, our list has 26 year olds with the bodies of 56 year olds.

[Born to Pie]

If you had Micheal Tuck, Boomer Harvey & Robert Harvey on your list in their last year of football the list would suddenly have an average age of ancient

[Jezza]

[LaurieHolden]

[Rd10.1998_11.1#36]

Based on Jezza's list above, our PF team:

20-25 (9)
- Jaidyn Stephenson (20) = 19/01/1999
- Callum Brown (21) = 27/04/1998
- John Noble (22) = 25/03/1997
- Brayden Maynard (23) = 20/09/1996
- Tom Phillips (23) = 7/05/1996
- Darcy Moore (23) = 25/01/1996
- James Aish (24) = 8/11/1995
- Brodie Grundy (25) = 15/04/1994
- Jack Crisp (25) = 2/10/1993

26-29 (10)
- Taylor Adams (26) = 20/09/1993
- Will Hoskin-Elliott (26) = 2/09/1993
- Rupert Wills (26) = 20/05/1993
- Adam Treloar (26) = 9/03/1993
- Brody Mihocek (26) = 4/02/1993
- Jamie Elliott (27] = 21/08/1992
- Josh Thomas (27] = 1/10/1991
- Steele Sidebottom (28 ) = 2/01/1991
- Jordan Roughead (28 ) = 3/11/1990
- Jeremy Howe (29) = 29/06/1990

30+ (3)
- Ben Reid (30) = 29/04/1989
- Chris Mayne (30) = 2/11/1988
- Scott Pendlebury (31) = 7/01/1988

Average age at that time of 25.68

[Presti35]

So we're the oldest by 0.08 years and they think we're screwed and have no youth coming through.

As far as the over 30s; Reid, Greenwood and Varcoe are almost certainly going into their final season. Howe and Beams (both still 29) still have plenty of games left in them. We'll see how Mayne goes and Pendles can play until he's 50 if you ask me.

It's this group we need to be worried about:

[Jezza]

^ I'm not sure Beams has a lot of games left in him.

[LaurieHolden]

As we're moving into a TPP vaccum, here's the offical pool we have to play with ~
2020 $13,013,257
2021 $13,273,522
2022 $13,538,993

To clarify if you don't use 100% of your cap space in any given year ~

http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/2017-2022-CBA.pdf

13. Payment of Total Player Payment and Additional Services
Agreements
(a) Each AFL Club must expend no less than 95% of the combined annual Total Player Payments and Additional Services Agreements limits in Football Payments to Players on its List in each relevant year.
(b) Where an AFL Club does not expend the amount set out in clause 13(a) in payments to Players on its List, the AFL Club shall be required to pay to the AFL, any shortfall in Football Payments.
(c) The AFL shall advise AFLPA whether each Club has expended 95% of the combined annual Total Player Payments and Additional Services Agreements limits in Football Payments and shall advise AFLPA of any shortfall by any AFL Club including the amount of such shortfall.
(d) Any shortfall will be distributed in an equitable manner between the Players in the relevant AFL Club in a manner determined by the AFL and AFLPA after consultation with the Players from that Club.
(e) AFL Clubs may spend over 100% of the combined Total Player Payments and Additional Services Agreements limit (Combined Limit), if in any of the preceding three years the Club has spent below 100% of the Combined Limit.
(f) The permitted amount of overspend will be tied to the level of underspend in the relevant preceding period. For example, if a Club was $500,000 below the combined Total Player Payments and Additional Services Agreements limit in 2017, and paid 100% of the Combined Limit in 2018 and 2019, the Club would be entitled to spend $500,000 above the Combined Limit in 2020. If a $500,000 overspend was not made in 2020, the Club has lost the right to overspend in 2021.
(g) It is agreed that the overspend amount is to be capped at a maximum of 105% of the Combined Limit in any given year.

The use of the Rookie list is going to be increasingly important in the way we manage our cap going forward.
Brodie Mihocek played 24 games in 2019 earning him $183k. On my reckoning (pg71 of agreement) that derived from a $75k base, $96k in match payments ($4k per match) and $12k in bonuses.

Post the Grundy (2027) signing, I suspect Pendles (2020) contract is going to be the key in whether we keep the nucleus of JDG (2020), Moore (2020), Sidebottom (2021) Stephenson (2021) & Treloar (2021). Langdon, Howe & Elliot are additional material payroll maturities in 2021.
Some leverage post the retirement of Varcoe & Reid will asssit with distributing TPP's of $13,538,993 in 2021.

[inxs88]

[LaurieHolden]

[/quote]
18-22
- Trey Ruscoe (18] = 3/11/2001
- Jay Rantall (19) = 10/06/2001
- Trent Bianco (19) = 20/01/2001
- Atu Bosenavulagi (20) = 17/09/2000
- Will Kelly (20) = 16/08/2000
- Mark Keane (20) = 17/03/2000
- Isaac Quaynor (20) = 15/01/2000
- Nathan Murphy (20) = 15/12/1999
- Anton Tohill (20) = 14/12/1999
- Tyler Brown (20) = 9/12/1999
- Flynn Appleby (21) = 21/01/1999
- Jaidyn Stephenson (21) = 19/01/1999
- Josh Daicos (21) = 26/11/1998
- Max Lynch (22) = 12/09/1998
- Callum Brown (22) = 27/04/1998
- Brayden Sier (22) = 12/12/1997

23-27
- Tom Wilson (23) = 24/06/1997
- John Noble (23) = 25/03/1997
- Brayden Maynard (24) = 20/09/1996
- Tom Phillips (24) = 7/05/1996
- Jordan De Goey (24) = 15/03/1996
- Darcy Moore (24) = 25/01/1996
- Matt Scharenberg (25) = 18/09/1995
- Darcy Cameron (25) = 18/07/1995
- Tom Langdon (26) = 9/06/1994
- Brodie Grundy (26) = 15/04/1994
- Tim Broomhead (26) = 22/03/1994
- Jack Crisp (26) = 2/10/1993
- Taylor Adams (27) = 20/09/1993
- Will Hoskin-Elliott (27) = 2/09/1993
- Rupert Wills (27) = 20/05/1993
- Jack Madgen (27) = 25/04/1993
- Adam Treloar (27) = 9/03/1993
- Brody Mihocek (27) = 4/02/1993

28-29
- Jamie Elliott (28] = 21/08/1992
- Josh Thomas (28] = 1/10/1991
- Mason Cox (29) = 14/03/1991
- Steele Sidebottom (29) = 2/01/1991
- Jordan Roughead (29) = 3/11/1990

30+
- Jeremy Howe (30) = 29/06/1990
- Dayne Beams (30) = 12/02/1990
- Ben Reid (31) = 29/04/1989
- Levi Greenwood (31) = 19/02/1989
- Chris Mayne (31) = 2/11/1988
- Travis Varcoe (32) = 10/04/1988
- Scott Pendlebury (32) = 7/01/1988

The age of the players is their age on the day of the 2020 Grand Final.[/quote]

Post Grundy's signing, and pending negotiations of JDG, Moore & Stepho anyone with a good deal of insight into player contracts prepared to have a go at how we split $13,273,522 in 2021 across the list?
The responses will make for good reading...

[Born to Pie]

I thiught I'd give it a go:

18-22
- Trey Ruscoe (18] = 3/11/2001 $88,000.00
- Jay Rantall (19) = 10/06/2001 $88,000.00
- Trent Bianco (19) = 20/01/2001 $88,000.00
- Atu Bosenavulagi (20) = 17/09/2000 $100,000.00
- Will Kelly (20) = 16/08/2000 $100,000.00
- Mark Keane (20) = 17/03/2000 $72,000.00
- Isaac Quaynor (20) = 15/01/2000 $100,000.00
- Nathan Murphy (20) = 15/12/1999 $120,000.00
- Anton Tohill (20) = 14/12/1999 $72,000.00
- Tyler Brown (20) = 9/12/1999 $120,000.00
- Flynn Appleby (21) = 21/01/1999 $72,000.00
- Jaidyn Stephenson (21) = 19/01/1999 $350,000.00
- Josh Daicos (21) = 26/11/1998 $200,000.00
- Max Lynch (22) = 12/09/1998 $95,000.00
- Callum Brown (22) = 27/04/1998 $200,000.00
- Brayden Sier (22) = 12/12/1997 $220,000.00

23-27
- Tom Wilson (23) = 24/06/1997 $72,000.00
- John Noble (23) = 25/03/1997 $88,000.00
- Brayden Maynard (24) = 20/09/1996 $200,000.00
- Tom Phillips (24) = 7/05/1996 $175,000.00
- Jordan De Goey (24) = 15/03/1996 $1,000,000.00
- Darcy Moore (24) = 25/01/1996 $650,000.00
- Matt Scharenberg (25) = 18/09/1995 $220,000.00
- Darcy Cameron (25) = 18/07/1995 $135,000.00
- Tom Langdon (26) = 9/06/1994 $150,000.00
- Brodie Grundy (26) = 15/04/1994 $900,000.00
- Tim Broomhead (26) = 22/03/1994 $90,000.00
- Jack Crisp (26) = 2/10/1993 $300,000.00
- Taylor Adams (27) = 20/09/1993 $600,000.00
- Will Hoskin-Elliott (27) = 2/09/1993 $400,000.00
- Rupert Wills (27) = 20/05/1993 $150,000.00
- Jack Madgen (27) = 25/04/1993 $100,000.00
- Adam Treloar (27) = 9/03/1993 $650,000.00
- Brody Mihocek (27) = 4/02/1993 $350,000.00

28-29
- Jamie Elliott (28] = 21/08/1992 $450,000.00
- Josh Thomas (28] = 1/10/1991 $200,000.00
- Mason Cox (29) = 14/03/1991 $650,000.00
- Steele Sidebottom (29) = 2/01/1991 $650,000.00
- Jordan Roughead (29) = 3/11/1990 $250,000.00

30+
- Jeremy Howe (30) = 29/06/1990 $450,000.00
- Dayne Beams (30) = 12/02/1990 $650,000.00
- Ben Reid (31) = 29/04/1989 $300,000.00
- Levi Greenwood (31) = 19/02/1989 $250,000.00
- Chris Mayne (31) = 2/11/1988 $250,000.00
- Travis Varcoe (32) = 10/04/1988 $250,000.00
- Scott Pendlebury (32) = 7/01/1988 $600,000.00
Total $13,265,000.00 (Cap:13,273,522)/($8,522 under spend)

[winpies]

Congrats Born to Pie - you've got the job.