Form ladder 2019

[David]

[K]

[K]

[David]

^ The trouble with that is that you never really know whether a team will emerge from their injury woes or whether getting those players back will actually substantially improve their fortunes. And if we’re going to measure by players who are out, why not by players who are still on the field but struggling with an ongoing niggle? Or, for that matter, players who are simply out of form?

I guess it kind of depends what you’re trying to measure (say, a ladder of potential), but to me anything more than actual results gets too much into the realm of the intangible.

[K]

There are bigger troubles than that, I realized after posting. Your form ladder doesn't sound as complementary to my injury ladder as I originally thought, now that I know "form ladder" is a misnomer...

The stuff you say above of course I have to make the best guess at, just as you are doing for your form ladder, so that's not a real problem. (I should probably explain what my vague ideas were when I posted my first injury ladder, and what they'll be for future injury ladders -- possibly not the same things.) You are just doing your ladder by eye and gut feel (when there are attempts by others to do it more objectively and quantitatively). Staring at injury lists is at least as reliable as that.

And the claim "Brissy has been doing well because they've had no injuries; Melbourne has bombed because they have many injuries" is solid.

[K]

Okay, just so we all know what this is supposed to be...

[David]

Thanks K. I should probably post that FAQ every year, given I always seem to get the same incredulous questions.

[K]

There are oodles of "power rankings" on NFL, NBA, Sports Illustrated, etc. websites, so it may be a naming thing. Not that I think the word "power" isn't a bit strange.

[David]

Round 5 form ladder:

1. Geelong
2. West Coast
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. St. Kilda
7. Port Adelaide
8. Essendon

9. Brisbane
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Hawthorn
12. Gold Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Richmond
15. Carlton
16. Melbourne
17. North Melbourne
18. Sydney

GWS and West Coast both lost a lot of cred on the weekend, but there's no team quite worthy of replacing them in the top 3 yet. I realise now that I had Fremantle much too low last round (no shame in a two-goal loss to West Coast, and otherwise good performances so far, with their win against GWS showing that they're capable of matching it with the better sides). St Kilda, too, haven't really put a foot wrong yet, and their round 2 win against Essendon seems like a much bigger achievement now. I'm still not totally convinced on Port – not just because of the Richmond loss, but because their two previous wins against Melbourne and Carlton were pretty unconvincing, and losing to Brisbane seems a bit more embarrassing now.

5–11 is still very tight (and it's hard to get a read on a lot of those sides), but I'd be just about ready to draw a line through Gold Coast (who seem to have developed an annual habit of falling into a hole after Round 3), Adelaide (generally useless, apart from their big win on the weekend), Richmond (beating the worst team in the comp by 22 points isn't that much to write home about) and the unfortunates beneath them.

[K]

To be more compatible with the form ladder (power rankings), the injury ladder will account for the past (i.e. R1-5) as well as future (e.g. "player *** just did his ACL & is out for the year, including finals").

R5 injury ladder (1 = best injury profile; 18 = worst):

1. Brisbane
2. WCE
3. Essendon
4. Geelong
5. WB
6. Carlton
7. Port
8. Richmond
9. GWS
10. Fremantle
11. GC
12. Collingwood
13. Sydney
14. Adelaide
15. NM
16. Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. StK


Brisband & WC picked up injuries on the weekend but still keep the top two spots on the ladder. StK were further harmed by the Howe-like injury and surgery to their captain, Geary. There are about 8 teams in the middle it's difficult to separate.

StK (in a good way) & Carlton (in a bad way) are the two teams whose form and injuries are poles apart, but StK have not been tested properly by good opposition yet.

The Pies have Elliott & Aish joining the injury list, and I can't fit our club in higher than 12th.

[Pies4shaw]

And so, as we head in to the last 2 games of round 6, there is a very real possibility that the entire top 8 will be on 4 wins and 2 losses at the end of the round. That possibility will be realised if West Coast beat Geelong. There will be, at the least, 7 teams in the 8 on 4 wins and 2 losses. If West Coast wins, the top 9 will be 4 and 2 and there is a genuine prospect that Ninthmond will reclaim their rightful spot amongst that bunch.

[K]

[Skids]

Cats will crush WCE.

[David]

Round 6 form ladder:

1. Geelong
2. GWS
3. West Coast
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. Port Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. St. Kilda

9. Brisbane
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Hawthorn
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Carlton
16. North Melbourne
17. Melbourne
18. Sydney

Am I underrating Richmond? I do agree with most observers that they'll get better, but looking at the results alone, it's still hard to see exactly what they've achieved – the win against Port is probably the only one worth noting; otherwise, they've beaten three of the bottom four sides, and not all that convincingly either. I do think I probably wrote them and Adelaide off too early, though. There's still not much separating teams in places 7–13.

[K]

R6 injury ladder (1 = best injury profile; 18 = worst):

1. Brisbane
2. WCE
3. Geelong
4. Essendon
5. WB
6. GWS
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
9. Port
10. Richmond
11. Collingwood
12. GC
13. Sydney
14. Adelaide
15. NM
16. Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. StK


Injuries keep piling up. Andrews and Mathieson are back in training, so Brisbane stay on top of the ladder. Despite Barrass's injury and Simpson's whinge about the Optus Oval surface, WC have nothing to complain about.
Lonie did not tear an ACL but will still miss a couple of months, so StK stay at the bottom of the ladder. Viney is injured and Melbourne could sink further.