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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:31 pm
Post subject: International electionsReply with quote

For fellow politics / global affairs junkies who are interested in this stuff:

Sitting Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko has finished second in the first round of voting, with TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy finishing first with 30% – they'll now compete in a run-off election on 21 April. Zelenskiy seems a better (albeit hardcore capitalist) candidate, staunchly pro-EU but with a policy of negotiating with Russia over the Donbass and less inclined to support Poroshenko's anti-Russian-language laws that are dividing the country and furthering conflict. The idea of a TV celebrity in power might be eyebrow-raising, but one thinks he can't be worse than the usual bunch of corrupt oligarchs in power, of which Poroshenko is definitely one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440

Elsewhere, in Turkey, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party may be on the verge of losing a number of local elections, including in Ankara and Istanbul, which is really great news if so – while he himself isn't up for election this time around, it does indicate that the country may be moving away from his far-right theocratic-authoritarian regime.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/31/world/europe/turkey-election-erdogan.html

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ronrat 



Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand

PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:20 am
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Try Se Asia as a basket case.

Thailand. Most popular candidate banned by the King (her brother) from standing. A new constitution where 30 percent of the senate seats are reserved for military star officers who are appointed.

Cambodia. Opposition main party banned by Hun Sen

Phillipines. Largely ruled by 3 or 4 families and currently run buy a homicidal maniac,

Laos and Vietnam. Run by communist party delegates. Don't see a lot of effect on the governments life of everyday people but basically Chinese puppets on foreign policy etc.

Indonesia. Similar to Phillipines but they are self serving the military and the Javanese. Any christians are tried on trumped up charges but behind the scenes Suharto and Soekarno families still prominent.

Malaysia. Hideously corrupt nad false charges (sodomy etc) happen all the time to give the impression muslims rule but the hierarchy are thieves beyond belief. First to call the moral high ground on others.

Brunei. Just listen to sharia law while all work is done by foreigners. No need to vote. British appointed sultans family rule.

Singapore. Straight as a die but but if not related to Lee Kuan yew you won't win.

Myanmar. Can have free elections but if you are not the right group forget it.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:08 pm
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Israel's up tomorrow. Netanyahu's on shaky ground after a wake of corruption scandals (although, sadly, being a fascist mass-murderer doesn't seem to have dented his standing too much). You'd think nobody could be worse than him, and you'd be right: his opponent is the more politically progressive former army general Benny Gantz, whose "Blue and White Alliance" supports recognising minorities, implementing some further separations of church and state and negotiating with the Palestinian Authority. At the moment, it looks like it'll be close, with Netanyahu still a slight favourite to form minority government.

A complicating factor is that Gantz has been #MeToo'd (see second link below...), though it's difficult to say whether that will significantly affect his campaign. Frankly, I think this is a perfect example of how you have to put politics over personality, as no matter the truth of those allegations, who leads Israel is quite literally a matter of life or death.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/one-day-to-israel-s-election-netanyahu-and-gantz-s-campaigns-align-1.7091391

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Gantz-accused-of-sexual-misconduct-as-teen-Ill-never-forget-his-eyes-581951

Edit: Here’s a more detailed analysis of the election’s possible outcomes:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/netanyahu-gantz-and-five-scenarios-for-the-israeli-election

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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:22 am
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Netanyahu seems to have been returned for a fifth consecutive term. He will be in coalition with further-right parties (who knew there was anything further right than Likud in Israel?).
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:45 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
Netanyahu seems to have been returned for a fifth consecutive term. He will be in coalition with further-right parties (who knew there was anything further right than Likud in Israel?).


Unfortunaely Israel has proportional representation meaning small parties with only a few seats can get power. Right wingers and crazy right wingers get only a few seats and power way beyond their numbersmand join in a coalition. Bibi is is self preservation mode and will do anythying for power and for his self interest the racist pr*ck.

Arab voting turnout was very low: shooting themselves in the foot

Labour has vanished.

However, it looks like Bibi the lying bastard won't get away with corruption as the coalition is unlikely to allow his request for immunity from prosescution that he has been wanting for a long time.

The religious nutters want to stack the supreme court and this is a huge danger to Israel's separation of powers: they're demanding the justice and education portfolios amongst other things.

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:50 pm
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Indonesia going to the polls this week.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/nearly-200-million-people-on-our-doorstep-are-about-to-vote-for-a-new-leader-here-s-why-it-matters-to-australia-20190409-p51cbg.html



Interesting snippet.

Quote:
Islam, too, is playing an increasing role in defining political identity and intolerance is on the rise in a nation that has, for decades, prided itself on its commitment to "unity in diversity".


The intolerance being on the rise is concerning, although that seems to be a world wide trend with not just Islam but with both the far left and right wings becoming more vocal and intolerant.

Both candidates seem moderate at least in relation to religion,

Quote:
Both make much of their commitment to Pancasila, Indonesia's state ideology, which can be summed up as belief in one God, humanity, the unity of Indonesia, democracy and social justice.


I personally prefer separation of church and the state but the rest of their "values" see good.

However, both candidates are actively canvassing the Muslim vote.

Quote:
Ultimately, victory for either Prabowo or Jokowi will not be "good" or "bad" for Australia. It's far more complex than that. What matters, in this election, is the manner of the victory – and what happens afterwards.

If one or other candidate relies too heavily on the conservative, Islamist elements within their coalition to secure the win, this will exacerbate and accelerate the trend away from Indonesia being a tolerant, pluralistic society. Prabowo, in particular – though he is not a particularly observant Muslim himself – could find himself indebted to the conservative forces that helped elect him, and 'owe' them legislative favours.

However, if one or other candidate secures a sizeable victory, it is to be hoped that he will push back against the illiberal forces that are in the ascendancy in Indonesia at present.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:58 pm
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Even though he’s been in power for a while, I can’t say I have much of a read on Jokowi yet. Anyone know how he compares to the military-backed autocrats of the past?
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:42 pm
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He comes from a much more humble background apparently, so I also have no read on him but I'd prefer him to his opponent.

Quote:
Prabowo Subianto, a millionaire businessman, former military general and son-in-law of dictator Suharto. Prabowo's military service was controversial in East Timor, West Papua and during the anti-Suharto riots in Jakarta in 1998.

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:46 pm
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In the mean time, around 1/8 of the worlds population is currently voting in the Indian general election.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/you-think-australian-elections-are-big-in-india-an-eighth-of-the-world-s-population-is-in-line-to-vote-20190411-p51d52.html

That's a fkn lot of people.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:03 pm
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While I'm not a huge fan of family dynasties in politics, the latest Gandhi seems okay. Would be happy to see Modi go.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:28 pm
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watt price tully wrote:
Pies4shaw wrote:
Netanyahu seems to have been returned for a fifth consecutive term. He will be in coalition with further-right parties (who knew there was anything further right than Likud in Israel?).


Unfortunaely Israel has proportional representation meaning small parties with only a few seats can get power. Right wingers and crazy right wingers get only a few seats and power way beyond their numbersmand join in a coalition. Bibi is is self preservation mode and will do anythying for power and for his self interest the racist pr*ck.

Arab voting turnout was very low: shooting themselves in the foot

Labour has vanished.

However, it looks like Bibi the lying bastard won't get away with corruption as the coalition is unlikely to allow his request for immunity from prosescution that he has been wanting for a long time.

The religious nutters want to stack the supreme court and this is a huge danger to Israel's separation of powers: they're demanding the justice and education portfolios amongst other things.

There is only one blessing here as I can see it. Now the madness of the far right has outdone itself, this means there is no excuse for people failing to distinguish between crazed nationalist racists and everyday Israelis. This is one less crack for anti-Semitism to hide in.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:10 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
He comes from a much more humble background apparently, so I also have no read on him but I'd prefer him to his opponent.

Quote:
Prabowo Subianto, a millionaire businessman, former military general and son-in-law of dictator Suharto. Prabowo's military service was controversial in East Timor, West Papua and during the anti-Suharto riots in Jakarta in 1998.


Yeah, Prabowo doesn't sound great.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/04/17/indonesia-election-democracy-threat/

Quote:
The fact Indonesia is now heading into its fourth fully free and fair election, where the military has no guarantee of seats in the parliament, as it did for a series of polls after the collapse of the Suharto’s rule 21 years ago, is remarkable; yet democracy in south-east Asia’s most populous nation, the Muslim world’s largest, is now arguably more under threat than at any time in the past 15 years.

It’s an election that should be watched closely by Australians, were we not so distracted by our own upcoming vote because it has highlighted just how much Indonesia is perhaps not so much changing but showing its real face to the world.

The steady creep of conservative Islam has been the underlying theme of both this election and the years leading up to it, whipped up by radical ulamas (the Bahasa word for mullahs). It reached something of an early peak with the 2017 conviction of former Jakarta governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, a Widodo ally and a Christian, who was released from jail in January 2018.

Prabowo has attempted to counter Widodo’s popularity with Trump-style Islam-based nationalism, railing against foreigners in election rallies. Widodo countered this by unexpectedly selecting Ma’ruf Amin, 75, chairman of Majelis Ulama Indonesia, the country’s council of Islamic leaders and head of Nahdlatul Ulama — the nation’s (and world’s) largest Muslim organisation — as his vice-presidential running mate. Prabowo’s running mate is articulate business tycoon Sandiaga Uno, 49.

Widodo’s first term has been something of a mixed success. While he has failed to deliver on promises of 7% GDP growth, the current run rate of 5% is only bettered by the Philippines and Vietnam in the major ASEAN economies. He has delivered on infrastructure finally seeing Jakarta’s first ever metro train line opened — it had previously been the biggest city with out one before this — just ahead of the election, as well as new airport terminals and rail projects.

Where he has fallen down is on his promise to address corruption and to dismantle traditional elites. As well, he has taken a very tough line on drugs, which has seen drug traffickers, including Australian Bali Nine ringleaders Andre Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, executed. A “commoner” by Indonesian political/military elite standards, the former furniture trader has surrounded himself with Suharto-era military advisers, including the infamous Wiranto who is accused of massacres in Timor-Leste.

Widodo leads Prabowo in polls, who he beat by six points in the 2014 election, although the margin has narrowed in recent weeks. But already the election has been marred by pre-poll irregularities in Malaysia and Sydney including the discovery of a stash of ballots in Kuala Lumpur pre-marked for Widodo.

There is some concern that if the election is close once again Prabowo may pull the same stunt as last time and refuse to accept the result. In 2014, he spent three months making court challenges until all avenues were exhausted. This time around, seasoned political supporters of Prabowo have promised street protests, which have become increasingly common in the capital in recent years, if they believe he has been “robbed”.

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:06 pm
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Well the Indonesian election seems to have gone off fairly well so far, except for the poor buggers tasked with counting the votes.

Quote:
Ten days after Indonesia held the world's biggest single-day elections, more than 270 election staff have died, mostly of fatigue-related illnesses, an official says.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/indonesian-election-kills-270-due-to-overwork-related-illnesses/11052960

Quote:
As of Saturday night, 272 election officials had died, mostly from overwork-related illnesses, while 1,878 others had fallen ill, Arief Priyo Susanto, spokesperson of the General Elections Commission (KPU), said.
Shocked
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:19 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
In the mean time, around 1/8 of the worlds population is currently voting in the Indian general election.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/you-think-australian-elections-are-big-in-india-an-eighth-of-the-world-s-population-is-in-line-to-vote-20190411-p51d52.html

That's a fkn lot of people.


Imagine doing the recount?

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ronrat 



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:37 pm
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It would be hard pressed if not impossible to find an Indonesian General who is not super rich. The USA gave Jakarta a ton of money to build a highway from the airport to South Jakarta where the US embassy is. Aside from the usual skimming of the contracts for road building etc they also forced the people in the way out, paid them a pittance for the land and sold it at enormous profit. Then to top it off they have put tollways in. Every General had one. Some 300 metres from each other with no exits in between. The military vehicles, government cars and us embassy cars are exempt. So your trip is stuffed up by stopping every 6 minutes to pay 1000 rupiah (10 cents) for the tolls.

A mate was playing in a proam in Kalaimantan and a 1 star General turned up with his caddy/staff officer in a taxi. The signature hole is a par 3 that very golfers can reach in one due to the enormous creek and the tiny green. Ford Indonesia put a hole in one prize of a new car up for a prize. My mate was playing with the Brigadier. Peter said he struggled to hit it 100 metres never mind straight. At the tee box the Indos organised a distraction and everyone told to look the other way. Brigadier swings and seconds later the unmistakeable sound of tree and golf ball is heard. Brigadier caddy says great shot. Of course a ball exactly the same is found in the hole. At the presentations the Brigs wife turns up with her 2 small children in a taxi. Ford present the keys to him which remarkably had been supplied in his favourite colour and fitted with 2 kids seats in the back. Months later he was promoted and sent to Jakarta where he chaired the committee for the next range of staff cars. Ford won despite Toyota being cheaper and with more workshop options and dealerships on the island.

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