Liberal leadership declared vacant.

[Culprit]

Today's Age has Kelly OmyDwyer attacking Sally McManus. When in trouble it's the boats or the unions. Sally clearly has the LNP worried.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/actu-wants-a-return-to-the-dark-days-of-mass-union-militancy-20181022-p50b4e.html

[npalm]

^^ And there is not a single word in O'Dwyer's article that even mentions the ACTUs concerns let alone any attempt to address those concerns.

[Pies4shaw]

First Dog on the Moon captures the Wentworth byelection quite nicely. In the words of Snitty the Psephological Cassowary, "it's all over now! Scott and his murderous crew of tumescent death elves are riding the overcrowded democracy bus to Hung Parliament City."

A memorable phrase or two, there.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/22/wentworth-and-the-charred-remains-of-the-morrison-governments-hopes-and-dreams

[stui magpie]

Interesting fact I read somewhere about the swing against Liberal in Wentworth.

When Keating rolled Hawke for the prime ministership, there was a swing of mid 20% against Labor in protest at the action in the resulting by election. Phil Cleary won the seat as an independant

I don't think Scho Mo is another Keating, so Keating winning the next election in his own right is likely meaningless as a comparison, but the point is I wouldn't expect the swing in Wentworth to be replicated around the country.

[Tannin]

^ Nobody does. Nobody ever has. Around one-third of that swing is a reasonable estimate. One-tenth of that swing would see a solid Labor victory with seats to spare. Because of redistributions since the last election, which this time around have notionally gifted Labour two or three seats, Scummo can't afford any swing at all.

[stui magpie]

"nobody" is a bit strong, I've read speculation about if the swing was replicated, but I don't think anyone seriously believes it would be.

It will be interesting to see if there is any consistent swing across the board.

On one hand there will be people pissed off at Turnbull being sacked and with the Libs in general.

On the other hand, as Jeza has implied, there will be people who had left the Libs who may return now turnbull has gone.

Will those two groups cancel each other out?
Will Little Bill overcome being generally as popular with voters as a pig on the spit at a Bar mitsvah?
Will the unions being up and about count for Labor or against them? (I heard someone say today, in response to the union rallies, that the Fwits were trying to get Andrew Guy as next premier)

All will be revealed in the fullness of time. I may just draw a big dick and balls on my ballot papers.

[Tannin]

That would be me, Stu, in this very thread:

[Tannin]

[Tannin]

Somewhat contrary to all that above, a lurch even further right offers them (the likes of Abbott and Kelly and Abetz) a fair chance of replacing Bernardis and PHONs with Liberal Party Senators essentially indistinguishable in all respects, other than party affiliation. Presumably, they would prefer that.

It also, of course, guarantees that the total number of (a) hard right Senators (Bernardis, PHONs, Dutton-clan Liberals) and (b) more moderate Senators who nevertheless vote with the hard right (moderate Liberals, if any actually remain) will make up a minority.

Naturally, I am all in favour of that.

[stui magpie]

Interesting call on Fraser. I was a kid when he was PM and I never heard a nice thing said about him. Granted, my family was bush working class.

In hindsight, I thought Howard was a far better PM than Fraser up until his last term when he went power drunk with control of the senate.

We had some decent PM's through the 70's, 80's and 90's but nothing since. Every PM since Howard has been a massive fail and there's no signs of that changing any time soon.

[David]

I think history will look on Gillard the kindest, even though she was such a phony in various respects (as well as the fact that the way she came to power began the trend of instability that has occurred over the last four parliamentary terms) – she spent most of her prime ministership in an extremely challenging coalition government, and did pretty well. Obviously I’m not disposed to liking the Liberals, but I struggle to imagine any objective and non-partisan observer looking at Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison and seeing anything other than a complete shambles extending right from Abbott’s first budget through to Turnbull’s incapacity to lead his own party through to Morrison’s litany of screw-ups in the last couple of weeks alone – and ultimately, one feels that he’ll be the one left with the legacy of a federal election wipeout. Shorten won’t have a high bar to surpass.

[Tannin]

Fraser started out in a terrible way but improved a great deal. He improved even more after he retired, becoming an outstanding Australian statesman who achieved a tremendous amount. While in office, Fraser was responsible for some very far-sighted policies which still benefit us today.

Howard was a dreadful man. he reason the Liberal Party is so screwed today is Howard's relentless campaign of purging good, decent liberals from the party and replacing them with hard-line hard-right types. The reason the party is full of toxic characters like Dutton and Abetz and Abbott is simple: Howard's legacy. Howard makes the Top 5 Worst Australian Prime Ministers list in a canter.

Of good PMs in living memory, you have neglected to mention the extraordinary Gillard, who achieved far more practical good work than Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull, and Scummo all put together, despite having a horrendously difficult road to tread.

Best 5 in living memory:

1: Curtain
2: Chifley
3: Whitlam
4: Gillard
5: Fraser


Worst 5 in living memory:

1: Abbott
2: Rudd
3: Howard
4: Whitlam
5: Turnbull

Gough achieves the extraordinary distinction of appearing on both lists. Such was the nature of the man.

[Tannin]

I seem to have left Hawke out. Let's try again, this time combining duumvirates as appropriate

Best 5 in living memory:

1: Curtain & Chifley
2: Whitlam
3: Hawke & Keating
4: Gillard
5: Fraser


Worst 5 in living memory:

1: Abbott & Turnbull
2: Rudd
3: Howard
4: Whitlam
5: McMahon

[Culprit]

For those who believe J Bishop is the answer, this is just a tip of the iceberg to why she will never be put in the main job.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/no-record-julie-bishop-facing-questions-over-jimmy-choo-shoes-disclosure-20181016-p50a25.html