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glasseyevfx 



Joined: 01 Jul 2017
Location: Gold Coast

PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:41 am
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B. Moore Dunne Langdon
HB. Howe Crisp Scharanberg
C. Maynard Treloar Sidebottom
HF. Pendlebury, Wells, Cox
F. Goldsack Reid Thomas

3 Rucks: Grundy, De Goey, Adams

4 Inter: Phillips, Varcoe, Hoskin-Elliot, Wills

Emer: Crocker, Mihocek, Kirby

Injured : Fas, Elliot, Greenwood

Wings - Murray, Mayne, Daicos, Brown, Stephenson, Murphy

It seems a fairly even team this year - much harder.

I'd like to see Moore deep and flicking up to the wing on occasion - be could be an important first receiver from kick ins. Pedders I believe needs to start winding down his workload so more time in the forward line. Phillips is a hard one - if your going to have a great runner you need him on the field to run out opposition but then he's ball skills could be better... I have a feeling he could be in trouble if Murphy comes up as he did well in the 2km. I think we have to give Mihcocek a go as he is of a prime age and could be a big bodied defender to that might swap out with Dunn who's not so young anymore. I'm also keen to see Kirby again.
Of all the positions I think I'm worried about Half Back Line - I think you need a special combination of spacial awareness, repeat efforts, reading the play etc - Howe is great for it Shaz was looking good at the end of the season and Crisp I think could be good but its still a question mark. I have Moore deep because I think he will be better having the play all in front of him.
Anyhow, go pies - I think we can make the 8 and then its any ones!

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Sir Alan of Didak Virgo



Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Location: Ascot Vale

PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:37 pm
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Bear in mind Nicksters that Richmond won the flag last year with one key forward and 2 hybrid mids in the forward 50 that played "tall" (Caddy + Townsend).
Having Dunne, Howe, Moore, Goldsack, Reid and Cox in the same side is simply too top heavy. Hence why I've (reluctantly) left Goldsack + Cox in the 25, but out of the 22.
Goldsack essentially cover (for Howe, Dunne + Scharenberg) and Cox cover (for Grundy, Moore + Reid). Of course, strong form could force them in, replacing one of those like-for-like players.

Looking at the Richmond model, we stack up pretty evenly across the midfield lines and favourably across the half forward line. They do however seem more assured and stingy in the defensive lines. Their full forward line is also a little more manic and productive than ours...would help if we were more efficient with our forward 50 entries, worked harder defensively and kicked straighter. Nankervis dropping back taking defensive 50 intercept marks is something Grundy needs to do more of, leaving Moore (or at times Pendles/WHE) to ruck in our forward 50, ala Shaun Grigg.

Collingwood v Richmond, direct player comparisons:

Murray - Vlastuin
Dunne - Rance
Scharanberg - Grimes

Langdon - B.Ellis
Howe - Asthbury
Crisp - Houli

Maynard - Lambert
Treloar - Cotchin
Sidebottom - Edwards

De Goey - Graham
Moore - Townsend
Wells - Rioli

Fasolo - Caddy
Reid - Riewoldt
Elliot - Butler

Grundy - Nankervis
Pendlebury - Martin
Adams - Prestia

Phillips - McIntosh
Varcoe - Broad
Hoskin-Elliot - Grigg
Wills - Castagna

For what it's worth, I believe we will finish around about 5th or 6th in 2018...and Richmond will go back-to-back.
Betting Agencies once again overlooking the fact that against INTERSTATE sides Adelaide, Sydney, GWS and Port, a strong Victorian side like Richmond will have a HOME Grand Final. Arguably, a 2-3 goal advantage...


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Last edited by Sir Alan of Didak on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 pm; edited 4 times in total
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Sir Alan of Didak Virgo



Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Location: Ascot Vale

PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:10 pm
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Sir Alan of Didak wrote:
Bear in mind Nicksters that Richmond won the flag last year with one key forward and 2 hybrid mids that played "tall" (Caddy + Townsend).
Having Dunne, Howe, Moore, Goldsack, Reid and Cox in the same side is simply too top heavy. Hence why I've (reluctantly) left Goldsack + Cox in the 25, but out of the 22.
Goldsack essentially cover (for Howe, Dunne + Scharenberg) and Cox cover (for Grundy, Moore + Reid). Of course, strong form could force them in, replacing one of those like-for-like players.

Looking at the Richmond model, we stack up pretty favourably on some lines. They do however seem more assured and stingy in defence. Their full forward line is also a little more manic and productive than ours...would help if we were more efficient with our forward 50 entries, worked harder defensively and kicked straighter. Nankervis dropping back taking defensive 50 intercept marks is something Grundy needs to do more of, leaving Moore (or at times Pendles/WHE) to ruck in our forward 50, ala Shaun Grigg.

Collingwood v Richmond, direct player comparisons:

Murray - Vlastuin
Dunne - Rance
Scharanberg - Grimes

Langdon - B.Ellis
Howe - Asthbury
Crisp - Houli

Maynard - Lambert
Treloar - Cotchin
Sidebottom - Edwards

De Goey - Graham
Moore - Townsend
Wells - Rioli

Fasolo - Caddy
Reid - Riewoldt
Elliot - Butler

Grundy - Nankervis
Pendlebury - Martin
Adams - Prestia

Phillips - McIntosh
Varcoe - Broad
Hoskin-Elliot - Grigg
Wills - Castagna

For what it's worth, I believe we will finish around about 5th or 6th in 2018...and Richmond will go back-to-back.
Betting Agencies once again overlooking the fact that against INTERSTATE sides Adelaide, Sydney, GWS and Port...a strong Victorian side like Richmond will have a HOME Grand Final. Arguably, a 2-3 goal advantage...

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:06 pm
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Sir Alan of Didak wrote:
Bear in mind Nicksters that Richmond won the flag last year with one key forward and 2 hybrid mids that played "tall" (Caddy + Townsend). ...

Looking at the Richmond model, ...

For what it's worth, I believe we will finish around about 5th or 6th in 2018...and Richmond will go back-to-back.
Betting Agencies once again overlooking the fact that against INTERSTATE sides Adelaide, Sydney, GWS and Port...a strong Victorian side like Richmond will have a HOME Grand Final. Arguably, a 2-3 goal advantage...


SAlaD, what sort of odds would you offer to someone betting against Richmond? I'd be shocked if they go even close to defending the premiership. I think a lot of people are severely underestimating the role of random chance here.
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mudlark 



Joined: 19 Mar 2002
Location: Maroochydore Qld

PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:56 pm
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E wrote:
Seems like you guys are in furious agreement that neither Broomhead nor Aish are any good!

Not even an emergency for either of them. And many of you are asserting that an untried Murray is already better than Aish and Broomhead.

PS: I'd be surprised if Blair doesn't play round 1.

I've been an unashamed critic of Broomhead and I think he should have been traded or delisted. Aish will be good.I have no doubt about it.And we must not do to our top draft pick, what we did to Scharenberg and not play him.He must have time to show his wares in the seniors and soon.My hope for the year is we don't see Broomhead,Blair or Smith in any shape or form and if we are unlucky enough to have all 3 in the same game we will NOT win.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:34 am
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Sir Alan of Didak wrote:
... Collingwood v Richmond, direct player comparisons:
...
Dunne - Rance ...
Treloar - Cotchin ...
Reid - Riewoldt ...
Pendlebury - Martin ...
...


To continue my Richmond disrespect, I regard most of SAlaD's direct player comparisons as (misleadingly) flattering to us. I think they have a Fab Four, apart from which Rioli is a very exciting player. I guess that means I think they have 17 plodders.

The problem is the comparisons with their Fab Four do not look good for us. Age and injury are the current realities of the four of our guys that SAlaD lists.
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Sir Alan of Didak Virgo



Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Location: Ascot Vale

PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:37 pm
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Certainly wasn't meant to be misleading "K"...simply what I see as our Best 22 versus the Richmond 22 that assembled the final time they ran out in season 2017. If it's "flattering to us", then it's probably due to viewing the match-ups with rose coloured glasses. Cool

It's up to Pendles to match Martin's dynamic impact and goalkicking prowess. Up to Treloar to add further steel and efficiency to his game like Cotchin. Up to Dunne to play another season at his optimum level (can never be Alex Rance) and up to Reid to kick straighter, mark stronger, present more often and work harder defensively, particularly when he's having an off day...as Jack Riewoldt does more often than not.

Bottom line is we keep Wells + Elliot on the park, get significant improvement from De Goey, Maynard, Scharanberg, Langdon, Moore, Phillips and Wills, no-drop off from the rest, Murray comes good and black + white pigs fly...then no reason the 13th placed side from the season before can't win a 3rd straight flag!

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:52 am
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Sir Alan of Didak wrote:
Certainly wasn't meant to be misleading "K"...simply what I see as our Best 22 versus the Richmond 22 that assembled the final time they ran out in season 2017. If it's "flattering to us", then it's probably due to viewing the match-ups with rose coloured glasses. Cool
...


I certainly didn't mean to imply that you were being misleading, SAlaD. I think their success is potentially misleading. Put another way: It would not be a huge shock to me if we finish higher on the ladder than Richmond this year; it would also not be a huge shock to me if that is insufficient to go anywhere near winning the premiership.

I posted in another thread the TAB wins lines for all the teams, which suggest that TAB predict both the Tigers and Dogs to be only moderately better than middle-of-the-ladder teams. I'm rather pleased that Buckley said at the Member Forum that we won't be trying to copy the premiers, although it seems his reasoning was more along the lines of, "They have their brand of football; we have our own brand." My reason for not copying them is that it seems there was so much luck involved in their success that the risk is that copiers are simply chasing noise, rather than signal.

Humans have a tendency to make up an appealing narrative to explain a premiership. When failure follows, they then make up a new narrative to explain that too. So we have all these tales about "what went wrong" for the Dogs --- for example, some blame it all on Stringer, even though his troubles date back at least to their premiership year and maybe to many years before that. Of course, if the Dogs rebound and win this year's premiership, then that new evidence would force me to reconsider my views on them.
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T2 



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:52 am
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glasseyevfx wrote:
B. Moore Dunne Langdon
HB. Howe Crisp Scharanberg
C. Maynard Treloar Sidebottom
HF. Pendlebury, Wells, Cox
F. Goldsack Reid Thomas

3 Rucks: Grundy, De Goey, Adams

4 Inter: Phillips, Varcoe, Hoskin-Elliot, Wills

Emer: Crocker, Mihocek, Kirby

Injured : Fas, Elliot, Greenwood
...


I reckon you're pretty close to the mark, Glassey. I'd have Cox at FF though, and Reid at CHF, with Pendles and Wells on the flanks.

I'd also consider WHE starting in the forward pocket given his dead-eye Dick kicking from that part of the ground last year.

Hard to argue with much else, though.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:38 am
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A few notes of interest:

10 of our 45 players have no AFL games experience.

Another 4 (Kirby, Brown, Daicos and Wills) have less than 10.

13 players > 100 games.

9 players 50-99 games.

9 players 10-49 games.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tp-collingwood-magpies?year=2018&sby=13

Without looking at individual players and positions and the merit of selection, we can put out a 22 of players with 50+ games experience. As soon as injuries strike we are into players with less than 50 games experience.

We will be relying pretty heavily on some less experienced players (certainly <50 games and possibly <10 games) to succeed in 2018. Those players in order of experience:

Moore - exposed AFL form
Thomas - exposed AFL form
Broomhead - exposed AFL form
Oxley - exposed AFL form
Smith - exposed AFL form
Phillips - exposed AFL form
Cox - exposed AFL form
Scharenberg - limited exposed AFL form from 2015 and 2017
Crocker - limited exposed AFL form from 2016 and 2017
Wills - limited exposed AFL form from 2016
C Brown - exposed VFL form (limited AFL)
Daicos - exposed VFL form (limited AFL)
Kirby - exposed VFL form (limited AFL), but some concerns re endurance/fitness base
T Brown
Lynch
Magden
McLarty - exposed VFL form
Murphy
Murray - training track reports suggest he may be AFL ready
Sier
Stephenson
Appleby - training track reports suggest he may be AFL ready
Mihocek - exposed VFL form

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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:18 pm
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Geez MM when you look at those stats it's alarming how quick our drop off in player expereince could get.
Even looking at some of the players with 50-100 games expereince there's a couple there that really haven't proven to be in our best 22 every week.
Hoping we don't get many injuries reading that or could be a long season.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:10 pm
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qldmagpie67 wrote:
Geez MM when you look at those stats it's alarming how quick our drop off in player expereince could get.
Even looking at some of the players with 50-100 games expereince there's a couple there that really haven't proven to be in our best 22 every week.
Hoping we don't get many injuries reading that or could be a long season.


That was my reaction as well! Thus the post.

From memory, of the 50+ games guys, I had Mayne, Aish and Blair as probably not best 22.

I have very high hopes for Wills and Phillips in the younger inexperienced brigade ... there is upside, but we will be relying on youth a fair bit. Guys like De Goey and Maynard will be key.

I really like Maynard’s brother over at Melbourne and hoped we might pick him up in the trade period, but that was not to be.

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TopGun Capricorn



Joined: 27 Jul 2003


PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:41 pm
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Crisp. Dunn. Goldsack
Sharenberg. Moore. Howe
Maynard. Treloar. Sidebottom
Varcoe. Reid. Wells
Elliott. Cox. Fasolo
Grundy. Adams. De Goey

WHE. Langdon. Greenwood. Phillips

All others being available dependant upon opposition, injuries, VFL form and the consistency of the above 'Best 22'

Personal favourites like Kirby, Brown, Daicos, Aish, Wills, McLarty and Broomhead ( like all the others) will just have to demonstrate VFL form that demands their selection
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Mossi Leo



Joined: 20 May 2002
Location: Vittorio Veneto TV Italy

PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:26 am
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TopGun wrote:
Crisp. Dunn. Goldsack
Sharenberg. Moore. Howe
Maynard. Treloar. Sidebottom
Varcoe. Reid. Wells
Elliott. Cox. Fasolo
Grundy. Adams. De Goey

WHE. Langdon. Greenwood. Phillips

All others being available dependant upon opposition, injuries, VFL form and the consistency of the above 'Best 22'

Personal favourites like Kirby, Brown, Daicos, Aish, Wills, McLarty and Broomhead ( like all the others) will just have to demonstrate VFL form that demands their selection


Top Gun, I like this team, a few tough footballers like Langdon and Greenwood in the side but it may be a little tall? Depending on the opposition I would sacrifice one of Goldsack or Reid for a more mobile player like Aish, Broomhead or Murray. I can't wait to see who Bucks and the coaching staff will line up against the small dangerous forwars like Rioli Bets and Garlett.
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Fatui Attata 



Joined: 29 Sep 2009


PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:48 pm
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TopGun wrote:
Crisp. Dunn. Goldsack
Sharenberg. Moore. Howe
Maynard. Treloar. Sidebottom
Varcoe. Reid. Wells
Elliott. Cox. Fasolo
Grundy. Adams. De Goey

WHE. Langdon. Greenwood. Phillips

All others being available dependant upon opposition, injuries, VFL form and the consistency of the above 'Best 22'

Personal favourites like Kirby, Brown, Daicos, Aish, Wills, McLarty and Broomhead ( like all the others) will just have to demonstrate VFL form that demands their selection


By all accounts, there's a bloke smashing the door down pre season.

Pendles says "Hi!" Razz

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