US Election 2016
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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^
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.
Same shit, different words except more accurate. People aren't always the same, we grow learn and change.
Granted at 70, with Trump what you see is what you get. To a degree.
Yeah he ain't going to change from his core at his age, at least not much unless it suits him, but his core ain't that bad in fact better than most of the other candidates.
What people see with Trump is interesting, because he like no one I can think of before hand, polarises opinion so much. People see what they want to see with him and the facts seem irrelevant. I think it's fascinating.
High risk uncosted play? Yep. And that says a lot about the level of general dissatisfaction with US politics. People were willing to take the risk to make change, knowing it could be bad, but change was preferable to more of the same shit.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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One pattern you see with Trump is the by-now unsurprising "surprise lurch".
This comes across as erratic from a non-psychological perspective; watching Bloomberg guests and the markets struggling with the policy uncertainty is amusing. However, this lurching is not surprising at all for an extreme narcissist when you consider over-reaction to external opinion is one of the very basic features of narcissism.
That is, as a narcissist he's intuitively a populist, which means lurching unexpectedly to counter criticism or flagging opinion. This lurching isn't due to some profound insight or creativity; it's about managing perception of the self.
This need to manage perception is one of the reasons why he has no policy platform, or refuses to discuss anything seriously and concretely. Trump needs to stay very mobile in order to manage the ebbs and flows of opinion.
Unlike a Sarah Palin, though, he is intelligent enough to know when he says something dumb or is likely to say something dumb, so he first tries to avoid saying anything on policy to start with.
But, not being an incumbent he has to say something, so his schtick is to blurt out extreme comments which he can later chalk it up to "campaign TV nonsense" if whatever he said was a bad fail.
This ego-sensitive schtick is much more predictable than people think.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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^
Not bad, close to the mark.
Just overlay the ego centrism with the desire to win and you almost nailed it.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| stui magpie wrote: | ^
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.
Same shit, different words except more accurate. People aren't always the same, we grow learn and change.
Granted at 70, with Trump what you see is what you get. To a degree.
Yeah he ain't going to change from his core at his age, at least not much unless it suits him, but his core ain't that bad in fact better than most of the other candidates.
What people see with Trump is interesting, because he like no one I can think of before hand, polarises opinion so much. People see what they want to see with him and the facts seem irrelevant. I think it's fascinating.
High risk uncosted play? Yep. And that says a lot about the level of general dissatisfaction with US politics. People were willing to take the risk to make change, knowing it could be bad, but change was preferable to more of the same shit. |
Yeah, I agree with that.
I've taken note of him for years from his business plays and segments on Bloomberg and such long before he ran, but most people are seeing whatever they like based on political parochialism, as you say.
Unfortunately, people in grim frames of mind, whether be folks in the rural red states, or evangelical sects expecting the end of the world, or Leftists thinking capitalism is evil, and so on, fail to cost the downside of change reasonably. Things can get worse, they just don't feel that way, as you say.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| stui magpie wrote: | ^
Not bad, close to the mark.
Just overlay the ego centrism with the desire to win and you almost nailed it. |
Right. Agreed again. He's definitely intelligent and ferociously determined; the guy is no hack when it comes to doing his thing.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| pietillidie wrote: | [quote="stui magpie"]^
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.
Same shit, different words except more accurate. People aren't always the same, we grow learn and change.
Granted at 70, with Trump what you see is what you get. To a degree.
Yeah he ain't going to change from his core at his age, at least not much unless it suits him, but his core ain't that bad in fact better than most of the other candidates.
What people see with Trump is interesting, because he like no one I can think of before hand, polarises opinion so much. People see what they want to see with him and the facts seem irrelevant. I think it's fascinating.
High risk uncosted play? Yep. And that says a lot about the level of general dissatisfaction with US politics. People were willing to take the risk to make change, knowing it could be bad, but change was preferable to more of the same shit.[/quote]
Yeah, I agree with that.
I've taken note of him for years from his business plays and segments on Bloomberg and such long before he ran, but most people are seeing whatever they like based on political parochialism, as you say.
Unfortunately, people in grim frames of mind, whether be folks in the rural red states, or evangelical sects expecting the end of the world, or Leftists thinking capitalism is evil, and so on, fail to cost the downside of change reasonably. Things can get worse, they just don't feel that way, as you say. |
What would you say to them? |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| pietillidie wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | ^
Not bad, close to the mark.
Just overlay the ego centrism with the desire to win and you almost nailed it. |
Right. Agreed again. He's definitely intelligent and ferociously determined; the guy is no hack when it comes to doing his thing. |
These things are relative, granted, but I've seen little to suggest that Trump is a more than modest intellect. He seems business-smart the way Heath Shaw is football-smart; beyond that, nothing he has said now or thirty years ago suggests a thriving intelligence operating under the surface. Listening to him speak, I've wondered at times if he's firing on all cylinders.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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I don't think so. He's no Obama in self awareness, clarity and world knowledge, but few are. His biggest intellectual downside is definitely that he knows little outside his sectors, agreed.
In contrast, George W. had no interest because he was as thick as a plank. But Trump needed plenty of nous to get where he is; sure, he used the 50m head start of racism and extremism, and he engages in about the slimiest and most corrupt sectors of the economy as a businessperson, but he wasn't propped in place like George W. Bush. Trump's ability to manipulate alone shows he's no dill.
Remember, with Trump, it's all about feeding the narcissistic black hole. He's likely just "ego disinterested" when it comes to stuff others are better at and avoids measuring up, lol.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| David wrote: | | pietillidie wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | ^
Not bad, close to the mark.
Just overlay the ego centrism with the desire to win and you almost nailed it. |
Right. Agreed again. He's definitely intelligent and ferociously determined; the guy is no hack when it comes to doing his thing. |
These things are relative, granted, but I've seen little to suggest that Trump is a more than modest intellect. He seems business-smart the way Heath Shaw is football-smart; beyond that, nothing he has said now or thirty years ago suggests a thriving intelligence operating under the surface. Listening to him speak, I've wondered at times if he's firing on all cylinders. |
That seems unfair to Heater.
Trump was clever enough to go bankrupt about four times after starting with a million dollar "loan" from his old man (probably $4m in today's money), and investing it in the mid-term money-printing machine called Manhattan property. He probably got further infusions of capital along the way from the family ATM, as well.
Whether he is smarter than GW Bush seems to me like asking whether a cactus is better chess player than a tub of lard. Smart people can string a sentence together and construct coherent sequences of thought. Bush could at least do that, up to a point. Trump, not so much.
_________________
Two more flags before I die! |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Yeah, but being a slime bucket and opportunist doesn't preclude intelligence. His narcissism makes him dribble nonsense both as cover, and because he knows he can't compete outside his comfort zone; but unbeknown to him, that immature defence makes him look more stupid to many.
Believe, me, I'm not lauding him as qualified, but intelligence is a varied beast. And I certainly don't think, as the angry mob hopes, that he's a genius in disguise!
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Mugwump
Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne
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| pietillidie wrote: | ^Yeah, but being a slime bucket and opportunist doesn't preclude intelligence. His narcissism makes him dribble nonsense both as cover, and because he knows he can't compete outside his comfort zone; but unbeknown to him, that immature defence makes him look more stupid to many.
Believe, me, I'm not lauding him as qualified, but intelligence is a varied beast. And I certainly don't think, as the angry mob hopes, that he's a genius in disguise! |
Agreed - judging from earlier posts, I think you and I have pretty much the same take on this particular mountebank. And others with his opportunities might have made less of them, so he has some "gifts". In a sense, what is interesting about him is not the man he is - a spectacularly empty figure - but what he represents, which is a fracture in civilised values as the West's economic system comes under strain. It will be interesting (but hopefully not exciting) to see what happens next. the slightly terrifying thing is that this possibly validates the vicious lizardry that is in the US Republican party. I had hoped that they would be wiped out in this elections and thus see the need for reform. Ah well.
_________________
Two more flags before I die! |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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Gunna be a long four years!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Quote: | Relax... Breathe... Donald Trump's phone call with the president of Taiwan wasn't a blunder by an inexperienced president-elect unschooled in the niceties of cross-straits diplomacy.
It was a deliberate move - and a brilliant one at that. |
I've seen the same written in a few places. Best one was on twitter, a bloke tweeted something like "The president elect takes a call from a democratically elected leader and people lose their minds because it might upset a dictatorship. "
Link to the Age article. http://www.theage.com.au/world/trumps-taiwan-call-wasnt-a-blunder-it-was-brilliant-20161206-gt4tag.html
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Have to say, I don't mind him doing that. Broadcasting his thoughts about the issue in real-time on Twitter is a pretty amateur move, though. Diplomacy matters, as I'm sure he'll be discovering very soon.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| What's the odds on the electoral college deciding to select a Republican who can read and write? |
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