MagpieBat
Joined: 27 Nov 2010
Location: Brooding in a cave... somewhere... maybe...
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When you say "those more acquainted with the VFL", you really mean me, right? 
To answer your questions, MM... (long-ish post coming up)
1). I think we're a genuine chance this year, provided both lists can stay on the park and playing good football. We probably had a better list last year, in which we finished percentage off of a top 4 spot (close losses to middling teams in Casey and North Ballarat robbed us of a chance for top 2, in fact).
The sudden turn against Cloke (and to a lesser extent Brown) by the coach has thrown an unexpected wild card into the mix. Going into the season, our VFL forward line looked rather ordinary. But you put Cloke into that forward setup, to go with a good VFL-lister in Michael Still, a serviceable relief-ruck/forward in Wyatt, a couple of good small forwards in Crocker and VFL-list livewire Lachie Ferguson, all of a sudden, we look pretty potent up there.
Brown, to go with maybe Marsh, Goldsack, Oxley and a few excellent VFL pickups in Matt Smith, Pendlebury and Kelly forms a very strong back half. And then in the middle, you'd have the likes of Macaffer, Wills, Phillips, possibly Aish, probably Broomhead, lead by a decent VFL ruckman in Witts, without saying anything for the likes of good VFL list mids in Moloney, Heller and Borthwick.
That's just an overview of the team we could have at our disposal come September. Which leads me into...
2). Funnily enough, I've been collating a running list of eligible AFL players for the finals. Because, you know, that's what I do with my spare time... 
Strictly speaking, every player on our AFL list bar Scharenberg and Elliott is eligible to play VFL finals, having played at least one either VFL or AFL game (Rule 20 (a) ). Yes, believe it or not, if the finals were held this week, Scott Pendlebury could actually play for the VFL Magpies with his brother... 
However, that tally will start dwindling rapidly once we get past July 1st, which is when the main criteria for finals eligibility kicks in (Rules 20 (b) and (g) )
For those playing along at home, the criteria I refer to are...
| Quote: | 20. Participation in Finals
(a) A Player who has not played in at least one AFL, VFL Senior Grade or Development League Home and Away Match in the relevant season will be ineligible to play in the Senior Grade Finals Series.
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(b) Subject to Regulation 20(c) below, a Player who has played in an AFL Home and Away Match after 1 July in the relevant season will be ineligible to play in VFL Senior Grade or Development League Finals Series Matches unless that Player has played in a combined total of at least six (6) Senior Grade or Development League Home and Away Matches in the same season.
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(g) Despite any other provision in Rule 20, where a Club does not field a Development League Team, an AFL listed Player must:
(i) qualify under Regulation 20(b); and
(ii) have played no more than 12 AFL Home and Away Matches, to be eligible to play in VFL Finals Series Matches.
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http://www.foxsportspulse.com/assoc_page.cgi?c=1-118-0-0-0&sID=277333
...which leaves a list of qualified players that should read as follows:
Qualified under 20 (b) & (g)
Brayden Sier
Tim Golds
Brent Macaffer
Darrean Wyatt
Tom Phillips
Jonathon Marsh
Rupert Wills
Qualified under 20 (a) (VFL games in brackets)
Matthew Goodyear (5)
Travis Cloke (5)
Ben Crocker (4)
Corey Gault (4)
Jarrod Witts (4)
James Aish (4)
Jesse White (3)
Timothy Broomhead (3)
Nathan Brown (3)
Tyson Goldsack (3)
Jack Frost (2)
Joshua Smith (2)
Marley Williams (2)
Mason Cox (2)
Alan Toovey (1)
Adam Oxley (1)
I've left out the locks for the senior side, as well as the players who keep getting picked for reasons known only to the senior coach. But that's the current list of eligible AFL players.
Of that second category, to lock away their eligibility under Rules 20(b) & (g), the following needs to happen with these players:
- Matthew Goodyear (needs to play 1 more VFL game in the last 10 weeks of the AFL season)
- Travis Cloke (needs to play 1 more VFL game and no more than 8 of the last 10 AFL games)
- Ben Crocker (must play 2 more VFL, no more than 6 of the last 10 AFL)
- Corey Gault (must play 2 more VFL and he'll be set, because there won't be enough AFL left to disqualify him, having only played 2 AFL games)
- Jarrod Witts (see Gault)
- James Aish (needs to play 2 more VFL games and no more than 7 of the last 10 in the AFL season)
- Jesse White (must play 3 more VFL, no more than 5 of the last 10 AFL)
- Timothy Broomhead (must play 3 more VFL and he'll be set, because again there won't be enough AFL left to disqualify him, having only played 2 AFL games in 2016)
- Nathan Brown (must play 3 more VFL, no more than 6 of the last 10 AFL)
- Tyson Goldsack (having only played 1 AFL game this year, there isn't enough AFL left to disqualify him anyway, so it's just a matter of how much VFL he plays in the last 10 weeks as to whether or not he secures his eligibility. Must play 3 more VFL to do so)
- Jack Frost (must play 4 more VFL, no more than 2 of the last 10 AFL)
- Joshua Smith (must play 4 more VFL, no more than 4 of the last 10 AFL)
- Marley Williams (must play 4 more VFL, which means there wouldn't be enough AFL left to disqualify him having only played 4 AFL games this year)
- Mason Cox (see Smith)
- Alan Toovey (must play 5 more VFL, no more than 4 of the last 10 AFL)
- Adam Oxley (must play 5 more VFL, no more than 2 of the last 10 AFL)
Of those players, I predict that Frost, Williams, Cox, Toovey and Oxley will all stay in the seniors or otherwise lose their eligibility over the 2nd half of the season, while Smith is highly likely to go into that column as well. Question marks over Cloke, Crocker, Aish, White, Brown and Goldsack.
Of course, we are certain to see the likes of Langdon, Adams, Moore and Fasolo down in the VFL over the next month or so, but those boys will only play enough VFL to get them right again for the seniors, so they're not likely to really qualify under the criteria either...
I concur with your opinion on the value of success in the VFL being a developmental benefit for the youngsters. One needs only look at Geelong's 3 VFL flags in 2002, 2007 and 2012, bookending their great era quite handsomely. A number of those who played in Box Hill's 2013 flag are now regulars at Hawthorn. Likewise, the Bulldogs with their flag in 2014. You could even throw in Williamstown's 2003 premiership, in which Nick Maxwell and Dane Swan got an early taste of what success looks like. And of course, the core of our 1990 side got its start in the 1986 Under 19s premiership...
Now of course, qualifying and loading up for a tilt at the VFL flag is not something that will be that high on the coaching committee's minds, which is fair enough. They'll be looking to salvage something out of the wreckage of this year, which means putting games into kids. But at the same time, it would be nice to have as many eligible as possible, so that we could maybe walk away with something tangible to hold up at the end of the year.
But, we're looking too far ahead. First, we actually have to qualify for the finals themselves. We can lock that up by sweeping the next month of games, all against very beatable opponents...
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I am vengeance. I am the night. I am MagpieBat. |
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