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Form Ladder 2015

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 11:42 pm
Post subject: Form Ladder 2015Reply with quote

OK, so each team has played three times now, and we're starting to get a bit of an idea of who the competition's contenders, middle range and cellar dwellers are. If you were to construct a ladder now according to how each of the teams have played so far in 2015—taking into account the unevenness of the draw—how would it look?

I'll update this thread every week at the end of each round, but I encourage others to contribute their form ladders here too.

There's no point looking at the actual ladder; it'll be meaningless for a while yet. The idea is simple: how good do you think each team is, really?

Further information on the concept here:

http://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=70563

Round 3 Form Ladder

1. Hawthorn
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. Adelaide
5. Essendon
6. Port Adelaide
7. Western Bulldogs
8. West Coast

9. Collingwood
10. Geelong
11. Richmond
12. North Melbourne
13. GWS
14. Carlton
15. St. Kilda
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Brisbane


Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney are clearly leading the pack at the moment, with Adelaide and Essendon not far behind. There's a bit of a gap from there to the 6th-12th bracket; all of those teams have shown good signs at times, but also struggled when competing against quality teams. The bottom six are surprisingly even; all, perhaps with the exception of Brisbane, have put in at least one good showing so far, but I don't expect any of them to see finals action this year.

What do you think?

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melliot 



Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:32 am
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I'd have Port above Dons. Or about even. Both have been unlucky to lose to quality opposition and were in this games up to the last minutes.

And I'd have North and Richmond above Pies. North thumped Lions and just lost to Port. Tigers too have belted Lions and beat Blues. So either equal to us or slightly better based on the margins against Lions.


WCE are too high. They were completely demolished today by Freo. Only beaten blues and that's it. Would have them below the Pies group.
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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:24 am
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I love the annual form ladder by David even it's severely criticised every year by many Nicksters.

In my opinion the Eagles are far too high. They beat a weak Carlton outfit but were smashed yesterday against the Dockers even if the margin flattered them in the end and they were ordinary against the Dogs in round 1 despite the close margin. The Eagles are also facing serious problems with both MacKenzie and Brown out with knee injuries leaving their defensive stocks very thin now. Also question marks are still being raised about when Jack Darling will eventually return from injury.

I think Carlton is too high and very lucky to be in 14th. I see them as being on par with the Gold Coast with only Brisbane being worse than them this season. I also think Melbourne should be above St.Kilda but only just.

There's also question marks as to whether Richmond and North are too low but inconsistency seems to be the story of both of these sides. I wouldn't be surprised if many people had them above us to be honest. We still have a lot to prove as a side with victories against poor opposition in Brisbane and St.Kilda so far. This week against the Bombers will be a big test for us.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:34 am
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David, You have Hawthorn on top but it's lost to a team you rate 5th. ?

.. and the team you rate 5th. has beaten the reigning Premier team, the one you rate top.

How do you arrive at those placings ?

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Nick - Pie Man 



Joined: 04 Aug 2010


PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:49 am
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Yeah I'd like to know too. Is there a mathematical basis to this?
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yin-YANG 



Joined: 03 Oct 2011


PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:03 am
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I don't think you can take the form ladder to seriously… it is really a right brain exercise based on feel and infinite soft heuristics.

I agree that the Hawks are too high on David's ladder for a team that has beaten below average teams and lost a close one to a contender. My form ladder is based on who would be the toughest opponent atm right down to the easybeats… reliant on games this year, reputation, coaching, injuries, game style, the weather and numerous other unquantifiables!

1. Freo
2. Swans
3. Hawks
4. Crows
5. Bummers
6. Port
7. Tigers
8. Pies

9. Roos
10. Dogs
11. Cats
12. Eagles
13. GWS
14. Dees
15. Saints
16. Suns
17. Bloozers
18. Lions

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 2:41 pm
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melliot wrote:
I'd have Port above Dons. Or about even. Both have been unlucky to lose to quality opposition and were in this games up to the last minutes.

And I'd have North and Richmond above Pies. North thumped Lions and just lost to Port. Tigers too have belted Lions and beat Blues. So either equal to us or slightly better based on the margins against Lions.


WCE are too high. They were completely demolished today by Freo. Only beaten blues and that's it. Would have them below the Pies group.


North Melbourne are a tricky one. Yes, they thumped Brisbane, but they were also smashed by Adelaide. We were much more competitive against Adelaide but much less dominant against Brisbane, so, who has been better?

Nick, the way I resolve problems like this is by pairing and then canceling out 'like' games. Our thrashing of St. Kilda was about on par with North's win over Brisbane, so we can draw a line through each of them. Likewise, given the respective form of the South Australian teams, I'd say a 27 point loss to Adelaide is roughly equivalent to a 10-point loss to Port. That leaves our narrow win against Brisbane and North's thrashing at the hands of Adelaide, so I'd say we come out on top.

You can do a similar formula with Richmond. In hindsight, perhaps they deserve to be above us, just. 7-12 were very hard to separate.

As for West Coast, I'd say they've had one very good result (Carlton), one okay one (narrow loss to Bulldogs in Melbourne) and one average one. I know they were smashed early, but when the final siren sounded a 30-point loss to one of the competition's best teams is not such a bad result. Certainly better than, say, Geelong managed.

Donny, there was less than a kick in the Hawthorn/Essendon match, so I'd draw a line through that one. Looking at their two other matches, Hawthorn has belted two mid-range teams (Geelong and the Bulldogs) and Essendon has had a narrow loss to a top team (Sydney) and had an unconvincing win against a cellar dweller (Carlton). It's pretty clear to me which has been the stronger of the two teams so far.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:30 am
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Yes, quite apparently. However, your reasoning doesn't back up those rankings.

It is still the case that you Have Hawthorn on top with the team that beat them, 5th.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:43 am
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I thought I explained that fairly clearly. Did anybody else get it? Happy to explain it in further detail if not.

One of the fundamental principles of this process is that wins and losses don't necessarily count for much. If there's less than, say, a couple of goals between two teams when the siren sounds, my conclusion is that—for that game, at least—they're roughly on par. I doubt you would be asking this question if the siren had sounded a few seconds later.

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Pies4shaw Leo

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Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:23 pm
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Essendon probably about 12th, now.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:51 pm
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This was a hard one. After this round, I'd say we have a clear top 4, at least. Not quite sure we're top 8 material yet—North and West Coast aren't far behind—but another couple of performances like this week's and I'll be a believer. Smile

At least there'll be no complaint about my bottom two (though you could flip a coin on the order). This week's Queensland derby will be fascinating, in a gruesome sort of way.

Round 4 Form Ladder

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4. Port Adelaide
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Essendon
7. Adelaide
8. Collingwood

9. North Melbourne
10. West Coast
11. GWS
12. Richmond
13. Geelong
14. Carlton
15. Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. Gold Coast
18. Brisbane

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melliot 



Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo

PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:53 pm
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Yep good effort.

Suggest Dees are couple places low and Tigers and blues slightly high. I would certainly have Dees above Blues.

Agree with Top 4 .

GWS has not had a mid range test to gauge them. They've beaten the bottom 3 and lost to Top 4 Swans. So they could drop significantly after playing a mid range team.
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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:37 pm
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essendon down 2-3 spots.

as it so happens, the current afl ladder is an ok reflection of form after four weeks.

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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:14 pm
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I understand the logic that can have Hawthorn in 2nd spot but I don't agree with it. I think there's some hangover from last year diluting or polluting the process.

hawthorn has lost narrowly to 2 teams that have been inconsistent as well. You can argue that a narrow loss is much the same as a narrow win, but it also works in reverse. The fact that they have lost does mean something, it means they aren't in great form.

Ditto with Port, 13 spot on the ladder at the moment, 4th on the form ladder, not for me.

I think our form is better than 8th spot too.

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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:19 pm
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^ without having watched a lot of the games it is hard to determine form based solely on results. winning form is good form but the scores obviously don't tell the whole story. to have hawthorn as second is folly given they lost to essendon and got done over by a rampant port adelaide even taking into account the hawks' comeback.
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