It's gonna get worse (before it gets better)

[M@®©]

I was 18 when the Pies won the flag in 1990, our last one in 1958 my mum n dad were 18.
So I guess our next one will come when my child is 18, sad news is I have no kids yet lol

[Pied Piper]

I think one thing that's come out of this discussion, understated in my original post, is our recruiting will have to be spot on in the next few years. Obviously, with the draft concessions granted to two new clubs, that will be even more difficult than usual. Derek Hine has made some brilliant calls but he is not a miracle-worker: while he made the right calls with Thomas over Ellis and Pendlebury ahead of almost everybody else, and with Goldsack at the bottom end of the draft, mid-ranking picks Stanley and Cook don't look so promising. It underscores the huge slice of luck involved in a very inexact science.

Another good point to come out is the relative improvement of other teams. This is unquantifiable and realistically we can only row our own boat, but I'd expect Carlton (shudder) to be a front-line contender by 2010. Their midfield of Kruezer, Judd, Gibbs, Murphy (throw in Andrew Walker also) is absolutely blue-chip.

West Coast will be back, and back soon; moreover if they get a couple of good draft picks out of this year they will be back stronger. They are nowhere near as bad as they look right now. And Richmond might just be about to click (if they don't, Terry will probably revise his prediction to 2020 and ask for an eight-year contract extension)

I've been hoping the doomsayers would come on for their say, where are they?! Thought this would be right up their alley!

[HAL]

Is the holding of hands a symbolic gesture for humans?

[Zakal]

[Pied Piper]

Some good arguments there. As I said, we can only row our own boat so you're right in saying don't get too caught up in other teams' fortunes.

Another thing I should have added is we may need to recruit another ruckman if Thoolen doesn't look up to it. Fraser I fear won't play until he's 30 due to injuries and Wood will need support. And before anyone says "play him at half-forward" - can you imagine the beating his already battered body would take?

[daicos35]

That has been a very good read. There's definitely a need for impartial analysis within a club, in order the plot the quickest route to improvement and success. Congrats PP, very easy to digest, and clever avatar, wouldn't be possible for many people to argue with Christie, I wouldn't

So many intelligent posts too.

I believe in the "X" factor. The invisible ingredient that surprises you and catapults your future into the present before you expect it.

I sure the club has done a similar analysis, I believe their determination to find the "X" factor might bring the success we crave forward a bit. Top stuff. I'm a fan. Not much room for thoughtful conversation about Collingwood over here, chuckling.

[Breadcrawl]

It's gotten a hell of a lot better very quickly.

Do you still feel the same way PP? Or does an aggregate margin of 186 points in two weeks against the premiers and a semi finalist indicate that we are well and truly on track?

Sorry mate, couldn't resist the temptation to bump this one. I like being right at least as much as you do!

[Pied Piper]

I was wondering if anyone would bring this back!

Firstly, I would love to be proven wrong in my assessment. I have been as overjoyed as anyone by the last two weeks.

My prediction was based on our form line over the first part of the season and impending retirements and delistings at season's end.

Those retirements and delistings will in all probability still occur. But in the meantime, on current form we are suddenly being touted as genuine contenders. What happened? And if it is to keep up, what needs to happen?

I think our improvement can be put down substantially to the return to form of a number of key players (Cloke, Thomas, Pendlebury, Swan, Clarke) to complement those already playing career-best footy (Didak, Davis, R Shaw, Medhurst).

Let's say we were to carry out the big prize this year - a HUGE call. The young core of the side which is still in the 19-21 year old age bracket would have to maintain their current intensity and rate of improvement. That won't be easy and we have serious opposition in Geelong (despite the win), Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Swans. On top of that, we have to nurse the veterans through what shapes as their final year.

The wild card is Rocca. As I wrote, he is clearly struggling to go on. What I DIDN'T foresee is how well the side might function effectively without him. Against Geelong he played a decoy role; against West Coast and Essendon he didn't play at all and we had big wins. Yet only a fool would doubt what he brings to the side, so I think the jury is out there.

I do still believe we will be hurt by the potential loss of experience and leadership next year when Rocca, Burns, Wakelin and Prestigiacomo are likely to retire or be delisted, along with Holland. So it's a question right now of how far we can go THIS year. Can we keep this incredible form up? I agree with Malthouse we didn't play as well against WC as we did against Geelong, yet we won by 100 points.

Let's wait and see. I repeat CGMW, I would love this post to be wrong and for you to be right!

[Brown26]

While I applaude your rational and deliberated analysis PP, I think there are three very important things that you haven't really taken into account (and forgive me if you have posted them somewhere, this whole thread was far too interesting for me not to read but far too long for me to read it all, if you understand that ).

Firstly, while you make a valid point about the ages of players needed for a premiership team (22-26 roughly), and Geelong and the Hawks are two great examples of this, you MUST take into account the number of games played, and the number of games played TOGETHER in that equation. MM said a couple of years back that a playing group needs to have the majority of their players having played 100 games and 100 games mostly together to press for a flag. If you have 22 18 year olds play for four years, then you suddenly you have 22 22 year olds with 100 games experience. Obviously, most 22 year olds haven't played 100 or so games, but a lot of ours have. H. Shaw, Daisy, Pendles, M Clarke etc will have played almost all of their games at senior AFL level, so in this team half a dozen of our 21 year olds are probably equivalent, in that sense, to half a dozen of Geelongs 24 year olds. Also remember finals experience is very important and this young brigade have it in spades.

Secondly, Your point about losing so much experiance / game time / key position players is, again, strongly valid, however I think you can drop Presti, Holland and Lonie from that list - they have contributed, for whatever reason, pretty much zero to the senior team this year. I understand depth is important, but there are even other players in the magoos who would get a game over those guys (with perhaps a fit presti being the exception). Burns, wakes and Rocca, well, in all honesty after watching the game yesterday I think Burnsy, while I love the guy, will retire in glory this year because if he decided to play on he probably wouldn't get in the team. I love him to bits, but really his body has run and is running out on him. Wakes will be the one we miss ( I think Rocca will play on next year, to tell you the truth) and I think we should convince Presti, if he can get over this injury, to play on next year to keep some experience in the back half while JA and browny get moving. It doens't even matter if he doesn't play a senior game, we would really benefit from being able to bring him into the team if the back half is struggling. Remember though that we have a few guys who play beyond their years down there (Maxy, H.Shaw) so it might not be so much of an issue.

Thirdly, and probably most importantly, I think you have (I know not intentionally) grossly underestimated the role that MM has in managing this list and managing their season and indeed careers. He is a master and I think he is almost a specialist finals coach (not that he is bad in home and away matches ) - you make the point that he was brilliant in taking the 2002/2003 list to two grandfinals, if he uses that same brilliance with this list of tallented players you may see two very different results.

Just as an aside, I think the reason why we are a much better team this year than last year is the progression of the midfield players in Pendez, M Clarke (recently) and R Shaw, and the migration of Thomas, Didak and Leon to the midfield. These guys are winning the midfield battles pretty much every week, and I think that their stronger bodies in tackles and their great skills is the cornerstone of this current team and will be the backbone of any team we field in the next five years.

If you take last weeks team and remove Burns, and wakes (remember Rocca didn't play) and Cox (for arguments sake) and put in Ryan Cook, John Anthony OR a fit Presti, and Russling OR Ried OR Dawes, you still have a very very good football team. Infact, as well as Cox played yesterday, if you take him out and put Rocca or a fit Russling in, it is a very very very good football team.

The challenge will be translating that very very good football team into premierships - because we all know that isn't necessarily a given. But I leave that to the master, just ask yourself - what would Mick do?

- Ben

[Mugwump]

The trouble with reasoned analysis is that it depends on evidence, and the facts about a football team can change in weeks, especially when the team is as formative / young as ours.

I saw the Pies yesterday (my one or two games a year when in Australia from overseas) and it's clear that there has been a significant form turnaround by Thomas, Fraser, Pendlebury, Clarke, Johnson and - most importantly - Cloke since round 6. Whether they had confidence issues after narrow losses to Brisbane and North, or whether it was a patchy pre-season, or the loss of on-field leaders, it's hard to say. Whatever it was, it seems to be resolved - for now. What we do know is that only very, very talented and committed football teams win successive games by nearly 100 points.

I still think that PP's analysis is valid, in that our spine probably faces some osteopathy, especially if Rocca struggles to come up. Brown is inexperienced, Wakelin ageing and potentially undersized, and we lack the required two marking forwards if Rocca (or Rusling) fail / are injured. That is probably the priority that will move from flag hopefuls to odds-on favourites.

[John Wren]

[SteveH67]

[David]

I was 2... at least you guys got to see it

[jack_spain]

[M@®©]

I remember the celebrations on local streets lol