By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86

It’s Round 14 and Collingwood host West Coast at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night. The run home to finals has begun, and the top 8 is still very even. Geelong’s loss to St.Kilda has particularly opened up the top 4, with Collingwood a sneaky chance to move into the top 2 at the conclusion of this round.

The Eagles on the other hand are languishing in 2nd last position, merely percentage ahead of Richmond. The heat has been turned up on John Worsfold, who has stated that his team will not finish last in 2010. Yet, on paper, and based on form, it’s hard to see the Eagles keeping ahead of Richmond or Adelaide.

No doubt injury has plagued the West Coast’s season. Realistically, there is no logical reason why the Eagles should beat a relatively full strength Collingwood side this weekend. They are missing stars, they do not travel well and their midfield and defence is reliant on teenagers. The odds are truly stacked against them. This is what worries me.

If Eagles are serious about keeping off last place, then they need to win this weekend. They have had a fortnight to prepare for this game and get a few players back from injury. The pressure is on coach and players to perform. I have no doubt they will come out firing on Saturday night. If they are unable to be competitive against the Magpies, I fear their season will fall away quickly and they will finish last. It’s time for the Eagles to make a statement, and if they allow themselves to be mauled by the Magpies, all hope gained from the weeks break will be flattened.

Defence has been the biggest worry for the Eagles, which has been emphasised by the absence of their captain Darren Glass. Jack Riewoldt helped himself to 10 goals against the young Eagles defence. Dawes and Cloke loom large this round.

On the other hand, Collingwood put a patchy month’s form to bed last week with a convincing away win against Sydney. In the past, the Magpies have used this game as a catapult towards a finals run. Considering Geelong is playing Hawthorn and they are missing a number of star players, there is a real chance the Magpies can in fact over take the Cats and put pressure on St.Kilda as well.

Malthouse may have remarked about the inequities about the draw…and to some extent Collingwood face a tough run home considering they face Geelong, St.Kilda and Hawthorn. However, they also face all the cellar dwellers as well, as they are yet to face West Coast, Richmond or Adelaide. So even if the Pies lose the tough ones and win the easy ones, it will be enough to finish in the top 4 very comfortably with around 15 or 16 wins.

So, can the Eagles make a stand? Or will the Magpies go about their business and cement themselves in the top 4? Let’s delve into it.

The Formline

The Eagles have lost their previous 5 games and have generally been woeful. They were ok in Round 13 against the Dogs for 2 and a half quarters, but then faded miserably.

Collingwood have 2 wins, 2 losses and a draw to show for their previous 5 rounds, however they have been undefeated in the previous 3 rounds, with Melbourne getting the draw in Round 12.

Recent History

Collingwood have won the previous 3 encounters between these sides, and 4 of the last 5 games. The last clash was in Round 9 last year at Subiaco where Collingwood won 88-66.

Nick Maxwell polled the 3 votes (29 possessions, 12 marks) and was the general all day. Leon Davis polled the 2 votes (32 disposals, 3 goals) and Dane Swan polled the 1 vote (36 disposals, 11 marks). Scott Pendlebury had 38 disposals but couldn’t sneak into the votes.

For West Coast, Embley was good with 29 disposals, whilst McKinley kicked 4 goals. Dean Cox had a game-high 30 hitouts to Josh Fraser’s 12. Brad Dick led the tackled count with 9.

Dane Swan’s history against West Coast is ridiculous. He averages 30 disposals. Scott Pendlebury averages 25. For West Coast, Embley has a very good record against Collingwood, averaging 24 disposals throughout his career.

At the Selection Table

We could see mass changes for West Coast this week.

Daniel Kerr, Nicoski, Hansen, Glass, Shuey and Butler are all out for either the season or an extended period. Shannon Hurn will miss probably 2 weeks with a calf injury.

However, they are likely to regain Adam Selwood from his AC joint injury and Chris Masten from his knee injury. Lewis Stevenson is also likely to return to provide some run off half back, along with Tom Swift who impressed for Claremont during the split round.

Also in the mix include impressive youngster Ashton Hams and Tim Houlihan.

Quinten Lynch’s name will be on the chopping block again this week following yet another average showing against the Bulldogs. I have a feeling Lynch could be on the trade table at season’s end. He is probably battling with McKinley for the 2nd tall forward position. Ash Hansen’s absence may be his saving grace.

Mitchell Brown and Dalziell may also face the axe this week to make way for the inclusions. Dalziell has been disappointing since his move to the Eagles and just hasn’t found consistent form. However, he was much better against Western Bulldogs last week.

Collingwood face a few selection teasers this week as well. Collingwood has pretty much made changes every week, and the 22 has been continuously rotating. I have not minded this in the 1st half of the year, but I’d like to see some consistency in the lead up to finals. I think it’s time Collingwood starts settling on a best 22, with only minor structural changes to fit opposition.

Josh Fraser and Paul Medhurst were both very good in the VFL following their demotions, and both will be thrown up again this week. However, Leigh Brown was very good as backup ruck last week and deserves to hold his spot. I think Fraser will be required to prove over the course of a month that his knee is capable of holding up at AFL level. I can’t see him coming back into the side anytime soon. However, he typically goes alright against Cox so his name will be thrown up.

Medhurst may earn a recall if Brad Dick does not pull up from his shoulder injury he sustained against Sydney. Dick faces a fitness test on his troublesome shoulder, however word coming out of Collingwood is that he will be ok.

The big decision for Mick Malthouse will be what to do with Nick Maxwell. The skipper will again throw his name up for selection, however the form of Tyson Goldsack means he may no longer be an automatic inclusion. Goldsack has a greater ability to play on an opponent, and his versatility could be required on someone like a Lecras. I think Maxwell will be given another weeks rest, whilst Goldsack is given another senior opportunity.

Of interest is the fact Jack Anthony had 31 disposals playing in defence last week in the VFL. I think he’ll be given another few weeks in this position. Chris Dawes locked down the forward position last week, so Jack’s best bet to return to the side is to impress defensively and add another string to his bow. Remember, he was recruited as a defender, so it is a smart move to work on this area of his game. Simon Buckley also had 31 disposals last week in a forward role, and will be edging closer to his debut game for the Magpies.

Players to Watch

West Coast

At the beginning of the year, I earmarked Daniel Kerr, Luke Shuey and Chris Masten to have really big years. All fell down early with injuries. Shuey has battled injury and glandular fever. I’ve had glandular fever, and I can’t see Shuey returning this year. Masten should return for the Eagles, however it has been disappointing that none of the highly rated young midfielders for the Eagles have had breakout years in 2010.

What they do possess however is the best ruck combination in the league. Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui are going to be far more agile than Leigh Brown and Darren Jolly. It seems the ruck is going to be the big hope for the Eagles if they are to cause an upset. It goes without saying that they need massive games, and the weeks rest is going to really benefit Naitanui in particular who was looking flat.

With this in mind, I’ll now look at the other guys in the Eagles team that need to be watched. Usually I look at players who are sneaking under the radar. This week, I’m going to focus on those guys who need a big game if the Eagles are to win.

Must Stop: Mark LeCras

We may not hear much about him in Victoria, but this guy is a gun. He’d be one of my favourite players in the comp. His form in 2010 has been up and down. However, if you can stop him kicking 4-5 goals, you have gone a long way to stopping the Eagles who rely on him heavily. He is mercurial around goal, and typically doesn’t miss from a set-shot. He plays taller than he is, but also has the ability to crumb a goal.

Collingwood has a number of matchups. My preference would be Harry O’Brien as he can take him at ground level or in the air. If LeCras plays full forward, then he may even get the Prestigiacomo match-up. At 182 centimetres, he is probably too short and nimble for Presti, but Presti showed last week he can play on more agile opponents. Toovey or Goldsack would also be decent match-up for LeCras agility wise. You probably need someone a bit taller to play on him to stop him in the air.

Others of Interest

Beau Waters – The Eagles need 3 Beau Waters’ right now. He’s been asked to play defensive forward, midfield and backline all throughout the course of a match. His form has been terrific, and he has been the one shining light for the Eagles following 2 years of horrible injuries. His last month of footy has been terrific and he will most likely be the leader of their best and fairest. With such a young team, Waters adds grunt and is the on-field leader in the absence of Glass. He will again be asked to play a variety of roles. Either as a defensive forward on Heath Shaw, or as a small defender on the likes of Sidebottom or even Dick. I can’t understate how good he has been, so he deserved a mention in my preview.

Andrew Embley – Without Kerr or Glass, Embley is one of the few remaining stars of the 2006 premiership year who still has the ability to turn it on. He is not having a terrific 2010, but he is capable of having a big game. If the Eagles are to pull off an upset here, they need Embley to have a magical game. The Magpies don’t have any really good matchups for him, and will probably allow him a bit of room. He had 28 disposals against the Bulldogs, but he needs to have way more influence on the match this weekend. Will most likely go head to head against Wellingham.

Brad Sheppard – After such a bad month, you need to take any positives you can, and the Eagles would consider young Sheppard as one of those positives. He was particularly good early against the Bulldogs in Round 13, and was part of the majority of forward thrusts. He is still undersized, but the Eagles have asked him to do run-with roles, to run off half-back or to play in the guts. He has got a really good education, and was rated extremely highly by the Eagles after they took him at Pick 7. They earmarked him as having a great pre-season, and he has justified the faith they showed in him, as many thought they would take Jetta. This week, he may be asked to run with Dale Thomas.

Adam Selwood – Should return from his AC joint injury, and is a vital component for the Eagles. He has turned himself into a major ball-winner and they no doubt miss his hardness and ability to run with an opponent. Guys like Ebert, Masten and Adam’s brother Scott Selwood are taking their time to come on, so they need their experienced guys like Embley and Adam Selwood to step up. He may be asked to run with Pendlebury and work off him.

Matt Priddis – No one will be more important than Priddis on Saturday night for the Eagles. He is likely to go head to head with Luke Ball, who was simply amazing last week around the stoppages. Priddis has felt the absence of Daniel Kerr the hardest as he has now copped the tags, and his output has diminished. Collingwood will not tag him, which means he will have the opportunity to win a bit more of the ball and run more freely. However, the big job for Priddis is to square off with Ball and Swan in the centre and win his share of clearances. Collingwood ran rampant last week against a good stoppage side in Sydney. Allowing Collingwood first use on Saturday night will make for a slaughter.

Josh Kennedy – He is having his break-out year and is right up there in the Coleman race. Is most likely going to get Presti or Ben Reid and will be a handful for either. Keep an eye on his stuttering approach to set-shots. But it is effective because he barely ever misses. He is probably the only other stand-out for the Eagles in 2010, and no doubt they will build a forward line around him in the future.

Collingwood

As I alluded to above, Dean Cox and Naitanui pose the biggest threats to Collingwood. I doubt Fraser will return, so it leaves a big job for Jolly and Leigh Brown. I think Leigh Brown will be required to impose himself physically and unsettle Naitanui in particular. Jolly will have to bear the brunt of the majority of the ruck-work again, but he’ll have to be careful not to let his opponent off the chain.

Must Stop – Luke Ball

How under-appreciated this guy is. Watching him last week simply left me in awe. He pretty much gets his hand to the ball at every stoppage, and when he doesn’t he lays a tackle or knocks the ball on to advantage. The influence of Naitanui and Cox may be diminished if Luke Ball is dominating the stoppages, so it is a huge task for West Coast to keep him out of it.

Others of Interest

Harry O’Brien – His game went to another level last week in the absence of Maxwell. His form is really really good right now. He will have a huge responsibility on a player like LeCras, but it’s his run off half back which has been the stand-out in 2010. He is so hard to tackle, and has a booming kick. The run off half-back was uncontrollable against Sydney, so the Eagles will have to put a lot of emphasis on shutting this down.

Dane Swan – As I alluded to earlier, Swan’s record against West Coast is astonishing. His form has been really good, and he is benefiting from Scott Pendlebury getting more focus, and Luke Ball feeding him. He had 36 disposals last time these sides met. He may get a tag by one of the Selwood’s.

Travis Cloke – The biggest issue for West Coast is their defensive line. He is most likely going to get McKenzie who has been left exposed in the absence of Darren Glass. McKenzie was quite good on Hall last round, and will have his work cut out for him this week on Cloke. Cloke is about due for a really big game I reckon. His form has been consistent for the space of a month or so now, and I thought his presence against Sydney was vital. I think he’ll enjoy having Dawes back in the team from now on, and Leigh Brown and Jolly are moving up forward to chop out as well.

Chris Dawes – Kicked 3 goals upon return to the senior side last week, and looms as a very tough match-up for a West Coast side without a really big bodied defender. He may get Schofield, or the Eagles may leave Mitch Brown in the side and send him down to Dawes. The biggest knock on Dawes is his contested marking ability. However he took a few really nice grabs against Sydney. What Dawes really needs to do to take the next step is take over-head marks.

Alan Didak – Collingwood just seems to have the match-winners all over the field, none more so than the in form Didak who was really good against Sydney last week. He was tight tagged by Smith, but was able to break free for a few really good goals and goal assists. He may get matched up by Scott Selwood. Didak will be really looking to get himself in his best form in the lead-up to finals, as he was restricted last year when it mattered.

DaVe’s Soapbox – Steven Baker

It was a very harsh penalty for Baker to be given 9 weeks by the AFL tribunal. But let’s just remember he was reported on 4 separate incidents, 3 of which the Saints didn’t even bother to defend. So 7 weeks came from 3 different suspensions, which sounds about right.

The other 2 have come from a misconduct charge, which is a result of Baker knocking into Steve Johnson’s broken hand repeatedly.

For a long time I have been saying that this sort of behaviour is a blight on our game. And it was good to hear Mick Malthouse share my sentiments on SEN this week. A player out of field is fair game…but fair game means that they are entitled to be tackled hard, bumped hard, worked over and tested. It does not mean that a player should purposely hit your broken hand to inflict even more pain. This is outside the rules and should not be accepted. It is not a good look for the game, and is simply a low act.

Saints have the right to be a bit upset. Baker was not the first player to exhibit this kind of tactic. In fact, they were on the receiving end of it only a few years back when Mal Michael and Scott bumped into an injured Nick Riewoldt who ended up missing the majority of the year with a shoulder injury. Tayte Pears was also on the receiving end of it a few weeks ago with Jack Riewoldt smacked his broke hand repeatedly before the opening bounce. Not to mention to reports have been laid against Chris Judd who hit Pavlich’s face or taggers like Carrazzo, Scott Thompson or Aaron Joseph who regularly niggle their opponents.

However, the AFL has taken a stance. I would’ve issued a direction to players before imposing a 2 week penalty, but at least this way players are left with no confusion that this tactic is not acceptable. Baker took it too far and he has a bad record with the tribunal.

Saints can count themselves unlucky, but as a neutral supporter I am very happy to see this type of behaviour stamped out. It is for the better of the game.

The Wrap Up

Despite all I’ve said, I would not write off West Coast this week. They have a poor travelling record, but surely they are going to come out with a bit of passion. Collingwood has the better side across all parts of the field, but stranger things have happened in football and I always remain cautious about a side whose coach is under the microscope.

Also keep in mind Scott Burns is the assistant coach of the Eagles and possesses some inside knowledge.

What worries me about the Eagles is the fact they seem to lack a bit of pace through the middle. This is something not usually associated with a West Coast side. But the Magpies zone last week stifled Sydney. Inaccuracy was not costly because Sydney could not clear from kick-outs.

The Eagles need to be less predictable than Sydney were from kick-outs, and perhaps kick it long down the centre to Naitanui and see if they can break the zone open. If they are not bold, they will get smacked. If they are bold, they risk getting smacked, but they also give themselves a chance of kicking goals and giving Kennedy some 1 on 1 opportunities.

I’ll leave my tip out of this week’s preview because I am a jinx to Collingwood when I tip them, but I don’t want to publicly tip against them this week. So you guys can do the tipping for me.