By David Natoli
aka DaVe86.

We are well and truly passed the half way mark of the year now, and into the second half of the split round. Sydney host Collingwood on Saturday night in what is a crunch game for both sides.

The split round could not have come soon enough for Collingwood who have had a really patchy month of football. A few key players were suffering niggling injuries, and the list looked a little flat. On the other hand, Sydney brought some good momentum leading into the break. They have won 2 games on the trot and look to be back in some good form. So in some regards, Collingwood may be the greater beneficiaries of the split round as it is a chance to rest up key players and re-focus.

But Sydney have many reasons to come out firing this Saturday. None greater than the fact that Collingwood have won the previous 8 encounters against the Swans. No doubt the Swans would love to get this monkey off their back.

In some regards, Collingwood is a much stronger outfit this year than has won the previous 8 encounters against the Swans. It could also be said that Sydney are slightly weaker considering a lot of new faces have entered the side this year and a few old faces have departed or are slowing up.

However, I believe Sydney is in a better position now to beat Collingwood than in previous years. The reason is both sides are playing new game-plans. Both sides seem more attacking this year. In the past, Sydney’s lock-down style of game has been ineffective against the Magpies who have simply played a similar game-plan a bit better. But the fresh faces at Sydney mean they carry no scars and the new game-plans mean this will be a different game to which we’ve seen in the past.

No doubt both sides match up pretty well against each other. There will be much interest in the battle between Jolly and Mumford. Jolly of course defected from Sydney at the end of 2009 to play for Collingwood. In response, Sydney snared Mumford for Geelong. Mumford has been a revelation at Sydney and in all honesty is playing much better footy than Jolly right now.

It will be interesting to see how the Sydney midfield respond to Darren Jolly. Will their inside knowledge of Jolly’s rucking technique allow them to dominate the clearances?? Or will Jolly’s inside knowledge of the Sydney midfield setup play to his advantage??

The other key factor is the fact the game is at ANZ stadium, a ground which Collingwood seems to play a lot better than Sydney.

Weather could also play a big factor. The forecast is for rain. The Pies are yet to play any wet weather footy in the Home and Away season, whilst the Swans were good in the wet against Essendon 2 rounds ago. Collingwood is typically a good wet weather side, but Sydney would be quite happy to see a bit of rain I reckon.

The Formline

Sydney have only won 2 of their last 5, however as I mentioned earlier, they have now won 2 on the trot. The Swans currently sit in 7th position, 1 win off the top 4, and 1 win clear of 8th spot.

Collingwood have won 2, lost 2 and drew 1. The Pies sit in 3rd spot, 2 points clear of the Dockers, and 6 points clear of the Bulldogs.

Recent History

As mentioned, the Pies have won 8 on the trot. The last meeting between these 2 sides was in Round 21 last year at the MCG, where Collingwood won convincingly by 41 points. Dayne Beams was named best on ground with 24 disposals, whilst Adam Goodes picked up the 2 votes with 24 disposals and 3 goals. Jack Anthony polled the 1 vote with a 4 goal performance.

The Round 12 split round game at ANZ stadium in 2009 saw the Magpies win by 23 points. The Pies led by on 3 going into the last quarter, but a 4 goal to nil last quarter sealed the victory.

Alan Didak was the standout with 34 disposals and 2 goals, whilst Kirk and O’Keefe polled the minor votes…each picking up a whopping 41 disposals. Dane Swan and Heath Shaw were very good for the Magpies, whilst Davis kicked 3 goals.

Interestingly, Jolly had an amazing 53 hitouts for the game! Collingwood will be more than happy to have him on their side this time around.

An interesting stat I read was that Sydney have not kicked more than 10 goals in their last 4 encounters against Collingwood.

At the Selection Table

Sydney’s injury list is quite small, although it does contain a few key players in Craig Bolton, Mark Seaby and Daniel Bradshaw. Bradshaw is listed as a test, and is looking like he will return. This will really strengthen up the Sydney forward line, and might allow Goodes to play with more freedom.

Rhyce Shaw also looks likely to return against his former club.

Collingwood is likely to make a number of changes. Luke Ball, Alan Didak and Ben Johnson all loom as likely inclusions. However, Nick Maxwell is still 50/50 and I think he will miss. This might open up a position for Tyson Goldsack. Shane O’Bree will also be in the mix as he usually plays well against Sydney. Chris Dawes was sensational in the VFL 2 weeks ago, booting 5 goals in a losing cause. He also seems a likely inclusion.

However, the big question mark this week is what to do with Josh Fraser. Josh’s best is better than Cameron Wood’s or Leigh Brown’s, but I’m beginning to think we will never see Fraser’s best again. Perhaps its time to give Cameron Wood every opportunity to impress, or use Leigh Brown and Chris Dawes as backup ruckmen, giving Jolly 80% of the ruck-work.

A look at Sydney

Must Stop: Nick Malceski
Make no mistake about it, Malceski is well and truly back to his best. He was best on ground against Port Adelaide in Round 12, picking up 35 disposals and kicking a goal.

Sydney has always been a side dependent of run off half back, so having Malceski back in form is a huge boost. I would rate Malceski as being within the top 5 kicks in the AFL. His left boot is deadly.

But Malceski has weaknesses. He plays across the backline, but is not a very good 1 on 1 defender. Sides have been able to score heavily on him when they make him accountable. He is super effective when it comes to launching attacks, and he partners with Mattner, Shaw and Kennelly really well. So it leaves Collingwood with 2 options. Either forward tag him, or play a dangerous small on him and try to kick goals off him. I’d go with that option. Perhaps Sidebottom could go forward, or try and arrange the forward line so Malceski is forced to play on a guy like Thomas or Davis. With Brad Dick, Medhurst and Didak up forward, there are too many smalls for Sydney to man up, so Malceski may be forced to play more accountable.

Players to Watch

Jude Bolton – His past fortnight of footy has probably been some of the best in his career. He is kicking goals and winning stacks of the footy. Jude Bolton developed a very close working relationship with Darren Jolly, so may feel he is a good chance to snare a lot of his hitouts. It is likely Bolton will go head to head with Luke Ball, so the matchup should be fascinating. The Pies should be wary not to underestimate him because he plays with a lot of heart and is in good form.

Shane Mumford – He is probably the in-form ruckman in the competition right now. The absence of Seaby has meant Mumford finally has had the chance to make the ruck division his own, and he hasn’t disappointed. He perhaps isn’t the best tap ruckman in the league, but his second efforts are probably the best going around. He has imposing size, and he uses it. In round 12, he had 24 hitouts and 8 tackles. A really good result for a big man. His battle against Jolly will be the talking point of the night. Jolly will not match him around the ground, but has to get on top in the hitout department where he has more height and experience.

Ryan O’Keefe – He had 41 disposals in the corresponding game last year, and will play the majority of his time in the midfield again on Saturday night. Look for him to have a stack of the ball, which is a concern for Collingwood as he is a good ball user.

Daniel Hannebery – Could be the smokey for the Rising Star this year as his last few weeks have been really solid. He is a goal-kicking midfielder and has great size about him for a young guy. He gets a mention in this preview because he is the sort of player that tends to sneak under Collingwood’s radar.

Ben McGlynn – Had an amazing start to the year following his trade from Hawthorn, then got injured. He has recently returned and is slowly returning to form. He has already established himself at Sydney as a vital player as he pushes forward and kicks goals, and his contest on the ball is superb. It will be interesting to see whether Roos elects to use McGlynn tagging Didak, a role he mastered playing for Hawthorn. Or will he play the more attacking role he has played for the majority of this year. Either way, he is a vital player for Sydney on Saturday night. He has had a strong winning record against Collingwood so carries no fear.

Josh Kennedy – The other player who was traded away from Hawthorn to Sydney, and he is relishing the opportunity. He was fantastic last week against Port Adelaide and is really dangerous around goal. He is quite a tall midfielder, and can play a variety of roles for the team. It’s the new faces at Collingwood who I believe will cause the most problems, and Kennedy looms as a real danger player.

Collingwood

Must Stop: Alan Didak

Didak always plays well against Sydney, and will again be the must stop player on Saturday night. I think he will get McGlynn as he has a history of annoying Didak. Dids is returning from a couple of weeks off, so will be quite fresh. If he gets off the leash again, I have no doubt Collingwood will go on to record their 9th straight victory against the Swans.

I think Didak will play a bit more midfield time considering Brad Dick is now in the side. This is promising news for Collingwood as they need his class on the ball.

Players to Watch

Darren Jolly – How will he go against his former side? He will surely be keen to beat Mumford to show all that he was the prize ruckman available during trade week. He will bring quite a lot of inside information to the side, however the experienced Swans midfield will also be quite familiar with crumbing to his ruck-work.

Leon Davis – I just have the feeling he is about to explode. His form has been terrible, but I think the week off will really freshen him up. Having Didak back in the side, along with Dick, means Davis can move onto the ball more often and ensure he gets himself into games. He is another who enjoys playing against Sydney and he needs a good game. I think Nick Smith will get the job on Davis to start. Smith has done some impressive jobs this year and has been a real find.

Ben Reid – Reid won the rising star nomination in Round 12. Just reward for a really good season from him. With Nathan Brown out for 5 weeks, Reid’s spot is secured. And he’ll need a big one because he will find himself watching Goodes and Jessie White at times. And he may not have the assistance of his skipper peeling off to assist.

Dale Thomas – Far and away Collingwood’s best player in 2010, and he loves playing at ANZ Stadium against the Swans. I’d like to see him kick more goals and maybe spend a bit more time forward because he has great goal-sense. I’m sure the Swans will be putting some work into Dale, and he may be a smokey to get the Kieren Jack tag. That said, I think Jack is likely to go to Pendlebury.

Harry O’Brien – The Big O is likely to get the job on Goodes. Reid will help out, but Harry will have primary responsibility. If Bradshaw returns, Goodes may also move into the midfield, and I think Harry should follow. I don’t mind having Harry higher up the ground because he is a great long shot on goal and it puts him into dangerous positions. Harry’s form has been impressive, and I thought he was vital against Melbourne in Round 12.

Dane Swan – He is another with great stats against Sydney and who was in need of the week off. A vital cog of the Collingwood midfield who continues to go untagged. He may find himself head to head against O’Keefe.

The Wrap Up

Experience is a big factor for Collingwood. But I’m very wary of the new faces at Sydney. Kennedy, McGlynn, Rohan, Mumford and Nick Smith have all really impressed me. Hannebery, Jack and Bird have taken the next step.

A lot will come down to Sydney’s ability to stop Collingwood’s run. At their best this year, Collingwood has been an irresistible force going forward. But at its worst, the Magpies have looked slow and sloppy.

I think ANZ Stadium really suits Collingwood as it is long and narrow, meaning they will not get sucked too wide to play the wings.

After tipping Collingwood for the first time last week, I’m way too scared to do it again.

So Sydney by 8 points