By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86.

Brisbane host Collingwood at the Gabba this Saturday night in a battle between 2 sides who will be very keen to get their names back on the winners list. Both sides are coming off Round 9 games to forget with Collingwood losing the top of the ladder clash against Geelong, and Brisbane slumping to its 5th straight loss to the 2nd last on the ladder Adelaide Crows.

Collingwood will be super keen to re-cement its top 2 spot. A loss very much puts the Magpies back in the main pack. Brisbane on the other hand is stringing onto finals aspirations, which seem to be diminishing with every week that goes by. A loss could see them slump as low as 13th, whilst a win keeps them within a game of the top 8. With so many injuries and a split round fast approaching, the Lions are desperate for a few wins and then giving a few star players a much needed week off.

Collingwood has copped a bit of criticism for its performance against Geelong. I find this slightly unwarranted. From my perspective, Collingwood played ok. They held the in form Cats to 12 goals, and had multiple opportunities themselves in the 3rd and 4th quarters to take a strangle hold on the game. The Pies simply seemed nervous and slightly tentative in attack. Playing the benchmark side of the competition requires a bit more flare and surety with possession. It was a good early season wake up call, and a good learning curve for the club. All is not lost, and I don’t think the Cats overly exposed Collingwood. But the Pies do need to be way more composed next time they play Geelong.

The Pies will go in favourites against Brisbane this week. But you can never disregard a side with Brown and Fevola up forward, and Simon Black in the guts….regardless on injury concerns. The hard deck of the Gabba has come under scrutiny in the last few weeks. However, the word is that the Gabba will be watered heavily before the game and should be softer under foot.

The Formline

Brisbane won its opening 4 games, but has since lost its next 5. Collingwood sits on 7 wins and 2 losses, placing them in 2nd spot.

Of particular concern to Brisbane would be losses against Melbourne and Adelaide (both admittingly away), as well as a home loss to Fremantle. Losses away to Sydney and Geelong are more excusable, but they were absolutely smacked by Geelong. Brisbane need a turn of luck, and a win against Collingwood could be seen as a potential catalyst for a revival leading into the break.

Collingwood is still in good form. Its wins over the last month have been dominant, and 1 loss to Geelong does not change the fact that the Magpies are a strong side this year. However, it has been a huge month. The past fortnight have both been battles for top spot on the ladder and have been built up enormously. Prior to these clashes, the Pies faced both Essendon and Carlton which were both near sell-outs. So it has been a taxing month.

The key for Collingwood is to not drop off its work-rate and maintain the momentum. Following such a tough month, it would be very easy to relax a bit.

Nevertheless, Collingwood possesses a very strong travelling record, so a trip to the Gabba will not be a huge concern for the Pies.

Recent History

Collingwood won each of its 2 encounters against Brisbane in 2009. The Round 18 match was particularly pleasing considering Jonathon Brown kicked 5 goals and had a phenomenal opening quarter once Presti went off injured. It was left to Leigh Brown to mind him. Collingwood eventually ran away 40 point winners.

Pendlebury polled the 3 votes with a fantastic 36 disposal effort. Davis polled the 2, amassing 24 disposals and kicking 2 goals. Jonathon Brown polled the 1. Dane Swan was also impressive with 36 disposals, but as is so often the case was not a vote-getter.

The Round 2 clash at the Gabba was a beauty. Brisbane looked good and took a 10 point lead into half time. But Paul Medhurst almost single handedly turned the game around with a 4 goal second half. The Pies eventually running out 17 point winners. Medhurst’s performance was good enough for the 1 vote, but it was also the game where he first hurt his foot, and his form has never recovered since. Ironically, he will miss this week again with a foot injury.

Bradd Dalziell polled the 2 votes with 28 disposals, whilst Scott Pendlebury again polled the 3 with 35 disposals, meaning he got a perfect 6 votes last year in games against Brisbane.

At the Selection Table and Injury News

Brisbane is undermanned. Adcock adds to the list of injury woes and will be out indefinitely with a foot injury. Brennan, Drummond and Merrett are also some time off. This leaves the defence looking terribly depleted, and also puts a lot of reliance onto Maguire and Patful.

It will be an interesting call as to whether Voss decides to bring back experienced players such as Johnstone and Troy Selwood, or turn to youth such as Sam Sheldon.

Jonathon Brown is obviously suffering. I know he said that his injury is improving, and is not groin related…but he didn’t look flash last week. There are rumours he will pull out this week, and look to freshen up before the split round. I hope he plays because he is such a champion and the Pies need to expose Nathan Brown on the stars of the comp.

At Collingwood, the news is not good for Paul Medhurst. He will miss another week. He has been unable to train properly, and the harder surface at the Gabba will not be a good ground to return on.

I think Jack Anthony should return. With the Brisbane forward line so undermanned, I think the Pies should load up. Fraser will also push for selection over Cameron Wood who was disappointing against Geelong.

Prestigiacomo is the logical matchup for Fevola as well, but will Malthouse drop one of his 2 young defenders who are playing really well? If I were Mick, I would drop Reid for this game. Malthouse preaches a horses for courses selection policy, and this is the week to test it. Presti only conceded 1 goal against Fevola last year in 2 games, and is his best matchup. Nathan Brown is the better matchup for Jonathon Brown. Reid would be too tall and inexperienced for Fev, and not strong enough for Brown. Reid’s form has been terrific, but I think he’ll be more suited to Western Bulldogs the week after…and Nathan Brown not.

I would bring in Presti, Fraser and Anthony for Macaffer, Reid and Wood. Macaffer has been great, but I think his 2 missed shots in the last quarter should not go unpunished. Just needs to get his kicking confidence back. O’Bree’s name will be on the chopping block as well, potentially for Barham as the Pies may look to more pace. Brad Dick is still a week off.

A look at Brisbane

The obvious key to Brisbane is shutting down the 2 big talls. The best way to do this is to get on-top of what is ultimately an average midfield. This is where my emphasis goes. The Lions also possess a few smaller, pacey midfield-forward options who can be dangerous.

Simon Black – He is the key to the Brisbane midfield. He has to still be one of the best clearance players in the game. If Lions get first use, they have the fire-power up forward to get the job done. Luke Ball will likely go head to head in the stoppages. He must be nullified, and as usual, the Pies will not set any tight tags. So they mustn’t allow Black first use.

Daniel Rich – A lot of reliance goes onto Rich who is still a second year player. However, his foot-skills are Buckley-esque and it is impossible to stop Brown and Fev if they are getting clean delivery from Rich. I think the Pies should set some sort of tag against Rich. Perhaps Wellingham who did ok against Ablett last week. Rich’s form is steadily improving.

Todd Banfield – He has been a real find for the Lions this year. His pace is lightning, and he kicks goals. With the talls up in the forward line, he can be used as a crumber, or go onto the ball for spark. The Pies should be cautious and it could be a job for O’Brien who perhaps lacks any other real matchup as the Lions have no mid-sized lead-up forwards.

Justin Sherman – Similar to Banfield, his pace and ability to crumb could be a factor. I’d send Toovey to him.

Amon Buchanan – Suffered an early season injury, but he is the missing link for the Lions. He is an out and out forward crumber, which is essential when you have 2 powerful talls. Could be a job for Heath Shaw to try and play on him and run off. Must be watched carefully however, and I would not be surprised to see Toovey or O’Brien get this job, and Shaw freed up.

A look at Collingwood

The Pies have the deeper midfield, but as I said it is essential they provide the Pies first use. No side is going to be able to stop Brown and Fev if the Lions are winning the clearances.

Scott Pendlebury – Polled a perfect 6 votes last year against the Lions, and they will no doubt tag him this week. Either Stiller or Rischitelli get the job, or Selwood if he returns. He is a hard man to tag because he starts off and rotates heavily. I think Pendlebury will benefit if O’Bree is out of the side, because he gets to play more inside. His role has become very outside this year.

Travis Cloke – With the Lions down on the defenders, the in form Travis Cloke becomes a huge factor. He needs to take the game by the scruff of the neck, because at the other end the Lions possess 2 big guys who are match-winners. Cloke is likely to get Patful, who is no mug. But Cloke’s strength could be a factor. Will his kicking boots be on? And will be get more of an opportunity to play inside 50? Dawes is also a factor as he will likely get Maguire who is winning a lot of the footy and creating a lot of play.

Dayne Beams – Coming off his 4 goal effort against Geelong, Beams should enjoy getting to play a game in his home state. Sidebottom was the flavour of the last fortnight, but Beams reminded everyone how good he can be as well. If the Pies do elect to bring back Anthony, the smalls up forward like Beams, Sidebottom, Thomas, Didak and Davis are essential to put forward pressure on, because there is always the risk of becoming too tall and immobile with 3 tall forwards.

Leon Davis – Is he fit??? Who knows? But he looked flat last week. But, I think he has been valuable for Collingwood this year. His assist work and forward 50 tackling is first rate. He also did well against Brisbane last year. He may get a youngster matched up on him like Hawksley or new recruit Raines. I think he will hold his spot, unless injury is a concern.

Alan Didak – Is often so good on the road, and his form has been generally good this year. The Lions will be putting a lot of focus onto stopping Didak, who is one of Collingwood’s match winners. In the absence of Medhurst, he becomes so important to Collingwood as he needs to be a scoring option.

The Wrap Up

How will the Pies bounce back from their reality check last week? Can the Lions re-discover their early season form and turn their home and away season around? These questions will be answered on Saturday night.

The Lions will be sweating on the fitness of Brown and Fevola who just don’t look right. But Fev was still able to kick 5 goals last week, and often his injury worries are more down to confidence and work-rate. They’ll need 8-10 goals between the 2 tall forwards if they are any chance, because ultimately they rely heavily on these 2 to kick the goals and Collingwood have multiple options.

Collingwood will employ a full ground press again, so the Lions will have their work cut out to break it. However, they do possess a number of young, quick players who can run the lines. Raines becomes important off half back as well.

It should be a good game, and I am expecting a tough one right down to the wire. The Lions typically lift against Collingwood, and I think they have a team that could worry Collingwood. The depth in Collingwood’s 22 is what will concern Brisbane, and I think there are just too many options for Collingwood going forward to shut down.

But I’ll leave the tipping to you guys.