In the 123 year history of the Collingwood Football Club only seven times have they lost more games in a row then they have at the moment. That’s how far this club has fallen, after reaching the half way mark of the season with an 8-3 win/loss record they now sit at 8-9. Yep, they’ve lost 6 games in a row, SIX. Last weekend was the worst of the lot too when the Pies disintegrated in front of our own eyes as they lost by 37 points to lowly Melbourne. It was the lowest points of the season for the young Magpies, and may well be the lowest point of Nathan Buckley’s coaching career.

If there’s anything to resurrect out of this dying season it’s a win over the old enemy, Carlton, and on Saturday Collingwood get the chance to extend their winning streak over the Blues to 7 games. The Blues have had an even worse season then the Magpies and have never given their fans hope with only 3 wins in 17 games. It’s the first time in 10 years that a match between these two will have no impact on the final eight but it’s Collingwood versus Carlton so it’s guaranteed to still be hard fought. The two sides met earlier on this season in round 5 in what was a one sided game where the Pies ran out victors by 75 points. Something tells me this one will be much closer then that.

 

PREVIOUS FORM

Collingwood’s form has gradually dropped off in the second half of the season. Of course there’s the comparisons to last season when the same thing happened but this year seems harsher in contrast. The loss to the Demons was mind boggling. Here’s a side that had won only 5 of their 16 games coming in yet the Pies looked like the bottom 6 side, especially in that final term. It was by far the worst overall effort from Collingwood in season 2015 and had many scratching their heads. It extended the losing streak to 6 games. There weren’t many positives to come out of the game barring the debut of highly touted youngster, Matthew Scharenberg.

Unlike Collingwood the Blues came out of their bye with the best form they’ve show all season. Under new coach John Barker Carlton upset Port Adelaide at the MCG then defeated the Suns to give their fans some hope for the future. Since then though it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve lost their last 5 games by an average losing margin of 57 points including the clubs biggest ever loss by 138 points to Hawthorn. That was two weeks ago and while last week’s effort was slightly better against the Kangaroos they still went down by 64 points. The Blues, like Collingwood are now loading their team up with youngsters in an attempt to fast track their development but it is hurting their on field performances.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Where do you start with the Magpies? It’s amazing to think that a side that went so close to defeating premiership contenders Fremantle and Hawthorn could lose to Melbourne so easily only a few weeks later. Yet there it was, in plain ugly sight for everyone to see, as Collingwood capitulated on the MCG on Saturday afternoon. Have they run out of legs? Has the high intensity football they were playing caught up to them? There really is no clear answer and it’s frustrating as hell for everyone involved with the club, from the President down to the fans. There are positives though out of this season that the Pies can take forward. At the moment they are ranked in the top four for points scored. They also rank 5^th for average losing margin, with several of their losses coming by under a two goal margin. The shows that although this year may be a write off they aren’t that far off becoming a force in the league.

This week however is about restoring pride and a defeat of their most hated rival would restore some of that and more.

The Pies have struggled to score in the last few games with the absence of the likes of Cloke, Elliott and Reid finally catching up with them. It seems that Cloke won’t be available this week but Reid and Elliott can play if the club considers them ready to do so. Elliott was a curious case last week, the club decided to play him as the sub rather then sit him out or play him in the VFL to regain match fitness. Along with Reid and Elliott there’s a bevy of players who performed well in the VFL that are pushing for selection. Jonathon Marsh once again shone brightly at that level and surely will get a senior debut before the season is out. Jarryd Blair, Patrick Karnezis and Ben Kennedy were the other three to stand out in the loss to Williamstown on Sunday and all would consider themselves unlucky not to be recalled to senior level. Nathan Buckley himself said though that no matter what the final selection is the attitude and effort has to be and surely will be on Saturday at the MCG. Carlton might be exactly what the Magpies need too, a relatively easy kill to keep their season alive, if only for one more week.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Carlton’s 2015 season has been one to forget, that’s for sure. It all started with Mick Malthouse seemingly only coaching to break the all time games coached record, as the club imploded around him on and off the field. Once he was unceremoniously shown the door John Barker took over the coaching reigns and for a few weeks there things were looking better. The last two losses though have been horrendous. The record loss to Hawthorn followed by another beating by North Melbourne has left the Blues fighting to avoid the wooden spoon.

Where do you start with Carlton? Maybe with their midfield that actually has performed at a decent level at times this season. In fact the Blues rank third for centre clearances showing they do have some talent in this area. The loss of Thomas, Judd and Gibbs obviously has hurt them this year but it’s also allowed them to play some youngsters through the middle. Of these Patrick Cripps is the obvious standout. He’s currently averaging the fourth most possessions per game of anyone at Carlton with only the experienced trio of Murphy, Simpson and Carrazzo getting more of the ball. It’s a start for the Blues, because they really do need to start rebuilding this team from the ground up. Like Collingwood the Blues have struggled in the ruck this year with Cameron Wood their most reliable option. The Pies also are ranked low for hitouts so at least this week the Blues won’t be dominated in that area.

Carlton’s forward line might be it’s biggest problem going forward. No one on the entire list averages more then 2 goals a game this season with Levi Casboult, who has been in and out of the side, leading with a 1.5 goals a game average. Andrejs Everitt has been a decent pick up for the Blues and is tied with Casboult for most goals in just his second year at the club. After that though the options dry up. Henderson has been a let down when he’s played forward, as has Jacksh. Troy Menzel has the potential to be a dangerous option but long term might become a midfielder. The good news for the Blues is they run into a young Pies backline that has been struggling of late too. They may be able to kick a decent score if they can get it inside forward 50 more often then the Pies.

The Carlton backline is probably their strongest area the moment, if they have one. Jamison and Rowe hold down the major defensive positions and there’s ample rebound given by the likes of Simpson, Buckley, Docherty, Tuohy and Yarran. The Blues defense has given up some big scores of late but their midfield and forward line hasn’t been helping them too much.  They will matchup against a Pies forward line without it’s number one man Travis Cloke which makes the job far easier. If there’s an area that the Blues can dominate it’s this and they may have to with the Pies almost certain to get more forward 50 entries.

Carlton are struggling, that’s plain to see and with only 5 games to go and an increasing injury list this is another season the Blues want to see the back off. Of course though they owe their fans something, and a win over the fiercest rival of them all would raise their spirits for sure. There’s talk around that Lachie Henderson and Chris Yarran may be punished for the club’s recent run of unacceptable form so final selection will be interesting at Carlton. The Blues don’t face an impossible task, as Melbourne showed last week this Collingwood side has weaknesses and is vulnerable at the moment. If the Carlton that played Port Adelaide a few weeks back turns up they may be a chance of causing an upset here.

TIP

Collingwood should win this game, but at the moment should and will aren’t being used in the same sentence too much. The loss to Melbourne was as low as it gets really, at least for a team that had designs on playing finals this year. The good news for Collingwood is they run into a team in even worse form. Carlton could be the most uncompetitive side in the AFL at the moment, with only the Lions as a competitor. It doesn’t exactly make for a mouth watering match up, two teams completely out of form and with little other then pride to play for.

It’s Collingwood versus Carlton though, and while many may not consider this the greatest rivalry any more, the two clubs still see it as such. Carlton were embarrassed by the Pies earlier in the year and pride alone will see them give a better performance. On talent though the Magpies win this game, if their effort is there for more then half the game of course.

MAGPIES BY 22 POINTS.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 19 – Collingwood vs Carlton - All comments

You Can read more of  mattys123 previews and other sports related posting over on his site at SportsMatt 

Follow mattys123 on twitter @mattys123