mattys123′s Match Preview Round 11 – Collingwood vs GWS

Jun 10th, 2015 | By | Category: AFL Match Preview

1511gwsCollingwood and the GWS Giants have started the 2015 season in a sensational manner. At the beginning of the season no one in the media tipped either to play finals. Yet after ten rounds both are positioned well ahead of expectations with a respective 7-3 win/loss record. The two clubs have been impressive in 2015 with wins over more experienced sides both at home and on the road. Both clubs are also following a similar plan when it comes to building their lists. They are primarily relying on youth to push them up the ladder and current evidence suggests it is working.

This Sunday at the M.C.G. the two will clash in a vital round 11 fixture. The winner of this game will move to 8-3, which for either side would have been almost unthinkable at the start of the season. The Giants don’t get the chance to play on the biggest stage in Australian sport too much so they will see this as a huge game for many reasons.

Being that this is only the Giants 4th season in the AFL there isn’t a lot of history between the Pies and Giants but some of the clashes have been memorable. The first time the Giants came to the MCG against the Pies was in 2013 and they gave the stronger Pies outfit a real scare with boom youngster Jeremy Cameron dominating early on. Although the Magpies ran away with a 40 point win the final margin didn’t show just how impressive the young Giants had been. Last season, once again, they only met once but it was the closest of the 3 games between the two yet. This time at home, the Giants started really well against the Pies and held a 10 point lead at three quarter time. The more experienced Collingwood team eventually won a real tough contest by 8 points but once again the Giants put up a fight. This weekend will be only the fourth side the two have clashed and although the Pies hold a 3-0 record over the Giants will feel they have every chance of notching up a big win on the M.C.G.

 

RECENT FORM

Some say that Collingwood haven’t beaten anyone, that they don’t deserve to be sitting inside the top 4 on the AFL ladder, but guess what? They are. It’s taking some hard work too, with a fighting come from behind win against North Melbourne two weeks back and a hard fought win over a gutsy Melbourne outfit on the Monday just past. That win over North Melbourne was nothing short of staggering, as the young Magpies, missing several key players, came from 39 points down at half time to win by 17. The game versus the Demons on the Queen’s Birthday holiday was also a tough encounter for the Pies. The Dees treated it like their grand final and the scores were level nearing three quarter time. From there though the Magpies took over, with Travis Cloke kicking 7 goals straight and young Adam Oxley having the game of his short career down back with 30 possessions and 14 marks. It was another solid win for a Magpies team going places.

Unlike Collingwood GWS are getting applause from the media for their start to the season. That’s totally understandable given the youth of the club and the comparative position to the other expansion club, the Gold Coast Suns. What the Giants have been able to do so far this year is make their two home grounds, Startrack Oval in Canberra and Skoda Stadium in Sydney into fortresses. They haven’t lost a game at either venue in 2015 and that’s very impressive in itself. The stand out victories for the Giants have been over the reigning premiers Hawthorn and the improving Adelaide Crows. At the time the Hawks win was described as the greatest in the club’s short history. Last weekend the Giants won again at home over the struggling Lions by 30 points. They never looked troubled and it sets up one of the most important games in the club’s history so far.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood are travelling pretty well really. After starting the season with a 4-1 record and now sitting at 7-3 after 10 games the Magpies really have set themselves up for a crack at the finals. Last season the Pies were in the same position though before an enormous amount of injuries hit the club and they fell away to finish 11th. This year so far at least the Magpies injury list hasn’t looked as bad as the 2014 version. Ben Reid and Levi Greenwood are the two still missing who would be automatic selections in the seniors, and Reid could maybe return after the bye. Greenwood is likely to play his first VFL game for the Pies this Sunday also. What has impressed many about this 2015 version of the Magpies is their youth. Players such as Oxley, Ramsay (before he got injured), De Goey, Elliott, Seedsman, Witts, Grundy, Langdon, Frost, Crisp and Williams have all made an impact in different ways. Young Jordan De Goey may be the best of them all though, taken with pick 5 in last year’s national draft the 19 year old reminds many of a young Michael Voss with his strength in the midfield and his vision in traffic. Twice now De Goey has tallied 9 tackles in a game, and his tackles are the type that stick. That’s where the future improvement lies for this Collingwood team too, much like the Giants their young draftees are on the verge of really making an impact on the competition.

This weekend against the Giants the Pies will go in with a relatively strong squad of players to choose from. Jarryd Blair is the only one under and injury cloud out of the win over the Demons with an ankle sprain but he should be right to take his place. Jarrod Witts (illness) and Taylor Adams (toe) were late withdrawals from the squad on Monday and both will need to pass fitness tests to regain their places in the selected 22. The VFL performed quite well once again on the weekend despite coming up short out at Casey fields. Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer and Jonathon Marsh would be the main three pushing for promotion from that side. The coaching staff will almost certainly want to play two ruckman so they will be hoping Witts overcomes his illness and is ready to play on Sunday. Collingwood’s problem so far this season has been lapses in games where they’ve allowed the opposition to totally dominate for a period of the game. It’s something that can be put down to the youth of the side but it’s also a problem that will be addressed and needs improvement with some very tough games to come soon.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Greater Western Sydney Giants have begun to make their home grounds into veritable fortresses. They haven’t lost any of their 5 home games so far this season and that’s a great platform for a young team to build off. The obvious next step is develop an ability to win on the road. The Giants only two wins away from home this season have come against lowly teams in the Saints and Blues, although both wins were impressive. That alone shows how important this game is for GWS, they have a chance to really make a statement on the biggest stage of all and move to a very strong 8-3 record. Club captain Callan Ward may have been right when he stated that this is the biggest game in the Giants short history.

The Giants forward line has the potential to be one of the scariest for opposition defences in the entire AFL. Led by the emerging superstar Jeremy Cameron, Cam McCarthy and James Stewart it already is a formidable task for most AFL teams to over come. Cameron is on target to kick over 60 goals this season while McCarthy has emerged as a clear number 2 target and could kick over 50 himself. The third forward option isn’t as clear with Stewart’s inaccuracy at goal leaving his spot in the team a little uncertain, especially with Rory Lobb kicking 7 in a big NEAFL win for the Giants reserves on the weekend. Lobb would also provide ruck support for the indomitable Shane Mumford as Stewart really doesn’t have that side to his game. Where the Giants fall down a little is in regards to crumbing forwards, with no small/medium forward option averaging over a goal a game so far this season.

GWS has developed a backline that is fast becoming one of the best in the AFL. The club was very smart in it’s recruiting of Phil Davis and Joel Patfull. If you take away that one terrible game versus the Eagles in Perth their total points conceded would be very similar to the Magpies. Davis is likely to take on man mountain Travis Cloke, who is fresh off a career best equalling 7 goals while Patfull will line up on Jesse White or the resting second ruck if the Pies go that way with selection. One are that the Giants need to improve on in defense is their ability to rebound out of defensive 50. They currently rank 15th in that category and against a Pies side that likes to put plenty of forward pressure on, but is open to counter attack, this is an area the Giants will have to improve upon if they are to beat the Magpies.

The Giants midfield talent is that deep that it’s hard to determine who is their starting four really. That’s a positive too, and while there’s still further improvement in this are as their youngsters improve over time they are already a top 5 team when it comes to centre clearances. An area they need to improve in is winning the contested ball around the ground though as they are languishing in 17th place for contested possessions while the Magpies rank 1st. Statistics can be deceiving though as the Demons also ranked lowly in that category yet dominated the Pies for large periods in the midfield on Monday. The Giants do possess some of the best young midfielders in the competition with the likes of Smith, Coniglio, Treloar, Whitfield and Shiel all improving at a dramatic rate. Add the experience of Ward and Scully and it’s a formidable central group indeed. The stand out though is Shane Mumford, who may well be one of the best recruits of all time, especially for a young and developing team. If Mumford isn’t the best ruckman in the AFL at the moment he’d be in top 3 for sure, and should dominate against the young Pies ruckman.

The Giants would have targeted this game as one of their stand out fixtures of season 2015, they simply do not get massive games like this on the MCG too often. Selection will be a challenge for the coaching staff too with that massive NEAFL win placing pressure on the 22 who played last week. Also available is Nick Haynes who missed last week’s game with injury. No matter what the final line up is for the Giants they have the talent to worry, and even defeat an equally young Magpies outfit.

TIP

This really is a critical game in each clubs respective season. Neither would have thought they could be 8-3 after 11 rounds but after this game that’s where the winner will be. Obviously the Pies and Giants are still inconsistent both from week to week and in games so it makes for an intriguing clash to say the least. The Giants go into this game with the comparatively better injury list but that is off set by the home ground advantage to the Magpies.

I see this being a really tight game, one which ebbs and flows with real periods of dominance from the two clubs. Down the stretch though I suspect Collingwood’s small forwards to be the difference here with Elliott and Fasolo hitting the scoreboard where the Giants won’t.

 

MAGPIES BY 13 POINTS.

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