Collingwood and North Melbourne came into the 2015 AFL season with different objectives. For the Magpies it was to be another year of rebuilding, with only a slight possibility of finals football. For the Kangaroos though the target was loftier. After winning two finals last season before losing in the preliminary final to the Swans, it seems as if the club thought they were on the verge of being genuine premiership contenders. Adding the likes of Jarrad Waite, Shaun Higgins and Nick Dal Santo (12 months prior) to the list shows that clearly. They now have one of the oldest senior lists in the AFL and really should be challenging for a premiership this season. Something has gone wrong though so far this year, yes they’ve had their fair share of injuries, but they have been nigh on uncompetitive against any top side that they’ve run into. It’s a situation that has to improve rapidly or North Melbourne will have wasted another season with an aging list.

This weekend Collingwood and North Melbourne meet at the M.C.G. in an important round 9 fixture. Strangely enough this will be the first of only 2 games that North will play at the home of football in the regular season, although winning 2 finals at the M.C.G last year shows they play well there. Collingwood call it home though, and the Pies are ticking along nicely with a 5-3 win loss record after 8 games. It could be argued that the Pies haven’t beaten anyone of any quality yet but 5 wins is a nice cache to have this time of year. The Kangaroos sit a game back in 12^th position with a 4-4 record and a much lower percentage then the Pies. The recent history between these two clubs is rather one sided, with North Melbourne winning just 2 of the last 8 meetings. The Kangaroos will start favourites in this one though purely based on the maturity of their list.

 

PREVIOUS FORM

The Magpies have been inconsistent so far in 2015. They started the season well with only one loss in their first 5 games but then played their worst game of the year vs Geelong. After that loss to the Cats they then fell in a close game to the Tigers, a result that may come back to bite them at seasons end. Last week though Collingwood got back on track with a thumping 69 point win over the hapless Suns on the Gold Coast. The return of Steele Sidebottom straight away proved fruitful as the Pies second best midfielder racked up 32 disposals on his return. It allowed captain Scott Pendlebury to play more forward and he relished the role with 3 goals of his own. The best sign for the Pies though was the return to form of elite small forward Jamie Elliott. Before the Suns game Elliott was only averaging a goal a game but he burst back with 5 second half goals last week. It was a win the Pies needed especially ahead of a tougher stretch of games.

North Melbourne has had a tougher draw to start the season then the Pies but some of their performances have been poor really. Apart from a close loss to Port all of the Kangaroos losses have come from big margins, with an averaging losing margin of 73 points in those other 3 losses. There have been bright moments too though, with hard fought wins over Geelong and Essendon being the highlights of the season so far. Last week though North were insipid, all be it against the form side of the competition Fremantle. The Roos do have a decent sized injury list but to lose by 83 points really does show signs of something else fundamentally being wrong. North will be hoping that Ben Brown returns from injury this weekend but apart from that there’s not a lot of help coming for a side that desired a high finish.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood came out of the Suns game pretty well really. Steele Sidebottom got through his first game since breaking his thumb in round 1, Scott Pendlebury starred in his 200^th and Jamie Elliott returned to form in a big way. The only injury concern was for Jack Frost who copped a knee to the hamstring and was subbed off during the third quarter. Early indications are that the Magpies key defender will get up for Sunday’s game but he will have to pass a fitness test. So will Alan Toovey, with the crowd favourite missing the trip to the Gold Coast with a knee injury. The Magpies are still without several key players due to injury but that list is getting shorter. Ben Reid, Levi Greenwood and Brent MaCaffer are the only best 22 players missing this week and so it’s probably the best position Collingwood have been in injury wise since early last season.

The problem for the Pies is consistency. More so consistency of effort over a four quarter period each week. For in the last 3 games, 2 of which they lost, they allowed the opposition to absolutely dominate for one period of the game. Versus the Cats it was the first quarter, against Richmond it was an 8 goal second quarter against, and even last week against the struggling Suns the Pies allowed the Gold Coast to dominate a 15 minute period before half time. They simply can’t afford to repeat that this Sunday against North Melbourne or they will lose the game.

Selection this week for the Pies doesn’t seem to be that difficult. The Magpies VFL team had a bye last weekend so not many from that level will push for promotion. The final changes will revolve around the fitness of Alan Toovey and Jack Frost. If both are declared right to go then it will probably be out of Tim Broomhead and Jordan De Goey for the unlucky omission to make way for Toovey. It does make the Magpies stronger though, Toovey and Frost are both reliable defenders and Toovey has developed into maybe the best one on one defender for his size in the league. Collingwood will set themselves for this game, it’s their first big challenge since the failure against the Cats and they’ll want to show the AFL world that they can match it with more mature sides.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

North Melbourne came into season 2015 hoping to challenge for a top 4 spot, but with a tougher draw and some key injuries they are well off that mark at the moment. That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for the Roos so far this season. Their 2 strong wins over Geelong and Essendon in recent weeks has shown that on their day this outfit can perform at a very high level. They have a mature list, one of the oldest in the AFL and this week they run into one of the youngest. That alone won’t win the game though, so the Roos will have to perform to their full potential to move to 5-4 for the season.

The Kangaroos midfield is struggling at the moment. The absence of Wells, Dal Santo and the loss of Greenwood from last season sees North having a central grouping that simply isn’t as good as last season. After 8 rounds they rank 15^th for contested possessions, 16^th for clearances and 10^th for centre clearances. That paints a dark picture for a club renowned for winning the hard ball. There is hope though especially when you have Todd Goldstein in the ruck. Goldstein is averaging a staggering 38.5 hitouts a game this season along with 14 possessions. If he’s not the best ruckman in the league he’s damn close to it. That’s where the Roos will look to dominate the Pies too, with youngsters Witts and Grundy up against the star that is Goldstein. Collingwood are missing ex North player Levi Greenwood which does weaken them a little in the middle but last week’s return of Sidebottom makes it a formidable central grouping indeed for North to overcome.

The North Melbourne forward line looks dangerous when you see it on paper but something isn’t quite translating to game day. The recruitment of Shaun Higgins and Jarrad Waite was supposed to increase the forward efficiency of the Roos yet after 8 games it’s still a work in progress. Ben Brown has been a great find though and they will be hoping their second most effective forward will pass a fitness test later in the week. If Brown doesn’t come up though it will be left to Higgins, Waite, Petrie and the enigmatic Lindsay Thomas to put the score on the board. Majak Daw may also be a chance to play his first senior game of the year after a strong performance in the VFL last week. They do run into a Pies backline that hasn’t been as effective over the last few weeks as it was to begin the season. Giving up 100 points against the Tigers and Cats showed that the Magpies defense is exploitable if you have the tools to do so.

The Kangaroos backline is struggling if you look at the points against in the 4 losses so far. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. With North being dominated at times in the middle it’s placed unfair pressure on a defensive set up that is missing Nathan Grima. With names like Tarrant, Hansen, Thompson and Firrito they still possess enough talent to restrict most forward lines given a fair run from the middle. They are rated higher when it comes to ball movement out of the backline with a marginally higher average (9^th in the league) compared to the Magpies (12^th). The Magpies forward line, not unlike the current North version, is a little dysfunctional, with reliance on Cloke and Elliott to do most of the scoring. The absence of Ben Reid will help the Kangaroos defense cope with a Pies forward line that needs assistance from it’s midfield to be efficient.

North Melbourne go into this crucial matchup a little under done and not in great form but they will still start favourites. That’s basically because they are the more mature team and at this stage should be more consistent then the younger Magpies outfit. At selection they have some decision to make with the likes of Daw, Mullet, Black and Turner all pushing for promotion through the VFL. It is a vitally important game for the Kangaroos season. If they fall to 4-5 so early on in the season with a poor percentage along with it, they face losing touch with the top 6, let alone the top 4.

 

TIP

North Melbourne should be wining games like this, they just should. The Pies are still in a rebuilding mode and are still wildly inconsistent even during games. Where North give Collingwood a chance though is with their own current inability to show any consistent level of high performance. The absence of Wells, Swallow, Dal Santo, Grima and most likely Brown also brings the Pies right into a game that previously they wouldn’t have been in.

I can see this game being close at the end, the sides do match up so well given the circumstances. Both have had 8 day breaks coming back from gruelling interstate trips. Both have several key injured players and both have shown a liking to playing on the M.C.G. What it might come down to is the contested possessions in the last quarter and in that area Collingwood may just pull out a season defining win.

MAGPIES BY 5 POINTS.

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