mattys123′s Match Preview Round 08 – Collingwood vs Gold Coast

May 20th, 2015 | By | Category: AFL Match Preview

1508goldcoastWhat has happened to the Gold Coast Suns? That’s the question that everyone is asking right now. Rewind to round 16 last season and the Suns were on the verge of playing in their first finals series in their fourth year in the competition. They had fought their way to an 8-6 win loss record and were hosting the struggling Collingwood Magpies at home in front of what would turn out to be their biggest crowd yet. Since that July night at Metricon Stadium it’s been nothing short of a disaster for the Suns. They have played 14 games and only won two, with one win coming over the wooden spoon winning Saints last season, and the other against cross town rivals the Lions 3 weeks ago. They did defeat the Magpies that night but lost captain and club superstar Gary Ablett for the rest of the season, with a shoulder injury that has lingered into season 2015. They also failed to make the finals finishing 12th. There’s more to the story then just losing one player though, they sacked their coach, Guy McKenna, there were off season drug problems, the injury list is longer then it’s ever been and this season there’s plenty of off field problems too. Simply put the Suns are a mess at the moment and need to turn it around quickly or face losing all hope for season 2015.

This Saturday they host their nemesis from that fateful July night, Collingwood. The Magpies aren’t exactly sailing along freely either with back to back losses. The Pies find themselves sitting inside the top 8 with a 4-3 record while the struggling Suns sit in 17th position with a 1-7 record with only percentage keeping them off the bottom. These 2 clubs do share one thing in common at the moment and that’s a long and talented injury list. This game is crucial for both teams, Collingwood needs the win to keep themselves ahead of a chasing pack while the Suns need a win to give their fans some hope for the rest of the season.

 

PREVIOUS FORM

Only two weeks ago Collingwood were seemingly cruising, having started the season with a 4-1 record. The last two weeks though the absence of some best 22 players has started to take it’s toll as the Pies have given up losses to Geelong and Richmond. The 5 point loss to Richmond would hurt most though, as it was a game the Pies led several times, even in the final 5 minutes. The Tigers kicked the most crucial 2 goals of the game late on though and despite a goal on the siren it was a tough loss for the men in black and white. It leaves them precariously placed in 7th, with only a superior percentage keeping them in the top 8 for now.

The Gold Coast Suns have been woeful this season, it’s not hard to say that at all. They started the season with losses to lowly Melbourne and St Kilda and it hasn’t got much better from there. They’ve had their moments still though with a hard fought loss to Geelong away from home a big win over the Lions in the first Q Clash of the season. Those 2 games have papered over the cracks though, there’s massive problems at the Suns under new coach Rodney Eade and they may have reached a new low last week with the 92 point drubbing by the Eagles in Perth. The Suns showed no fight, little effort and were destroyed by a middle of the road side. They will have to respond this week as after Collingwood they face last year’s grand finalists back to back so a loss to the Pies will most likely see them start the season with a 1-9 record.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The loss to the Tigers was unexpected by most involved with Collingwood yet in hindsight it wasn’t a huge surprise. Collingwood got beaten in the midfield when it counted and with the likes of Sidebottom, Greenwood, Reid, Macaffer, Ramsay, Thomas and Young missing through injury it wasn’t such a bad effort after all. Losing reliable defender Alan Toovey during the game hurt too and it seems unlikely that Collingwood will regain any of the above names for this Saturday’s trip north. There have been positives for the Pies though so far in season 2015. The form of young ruckman Brodie Grundy has been extraordinary for a third year ruckman really. The recruit of the year so far for the Pies is one of the unlikeliest too, ex Brisbane Lion Jack Crisp has played every game and has a healthy average of 19 possessions, 5 tackles and a goal per game to show for it.

This week against the Suns the Pies will be hoping Jackson Ramsay and Steele Sidebottom will pass fitness tests but at the moment it seems unlikely that both will play. The VFL Magpies did have another good win though hanging on against Richmond’s VFL outfit for a 3 point win at Punt Road Oval on Sunday. Out of that game Ben Kennedy, Alex Fasolo, Corey Gault and Jonathan Marsh will push for selection with Marsh a chance to debut as a replacement for the injured Toovey. This is an absolute must win game for Collingwood, with a tough game to come against North Melbourne next week they can’t afford to lose 3 in a row. The Magpies effort against the Tigers was good, apart from the second quarter, and if they can replicate that against the Suns they should come away with a win.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The only way is up for the Suns really, that’s the train of thought they have to be taking into this weekend’s clash with the Pies. Their performance against the Eagles last Sunday was as bad as anyone has played so far in season 2015. Considering the game was played in wet and slippery conditions to almost lose by 100 points is unforgivable really. It did seem as if coach Rodney Eade did almost by pass the game though virtually resting several players from the longest trip in football. This week the Suns will hope to regain several players off their long injury list but with plenty still weeks away from returning, including Gary Ablett, most of the improvement will have to come from those that played in Perth.

If the Suns have a strength it’s the midfield. Even without Gary Ablett, Jaeger O’Meara and David Swallow the Suns still rank in the top 3 in the league for centre clearances and contested possessions. The loss of those 3 mentioned players has hurt them on the outside though as shown by the Suns possessing the worst disposal efficiency of anyone in the AFL. They can win the ball though, with the likes of Prestia, Rischitelli, Hallahan, Stanley and Bennell helping to put the Suns near the top in contested possessions. The ruck isn’t really as settled with Tom Nicholls out performing Zac Smith so far this season to the point where Smith may be dropped to make way for a youngster like Wright or Brooksby. They do face a Collingwood midfield though which is weakened also so this is one area the Suns may be able to win on the day.

The Gold Coast backline has been under extreme pressure so far this season and it’s held up quite well considering the level of inexperience in defense, especially when it comes to key position defenders. Last week Henry Schade and Jack Leslie started as the key defenders and they had a total of 4 games between them. With injuries to several key position players throughout the Suns list it really has left their backline severely weakened. They still have good run and carry out of defense with Harbrow, Kolodjashnij, Lonergan, McKenzie and Broughton using their pace and skill. Of course they run head long into Travis Cloke this week and with Rory Thompson unlikely to play whether the young Suns defense can restrict Cloke, Jesse White and Jamie Elliott may well decide this game.

The Suns forward line is still a work in progress but it is dangerous in it’s own way. Led by Tom Lynch (who missed last week but should return vs the Pies) and Charlie Dixon it possesses enough talent to trouble most defenses. The absence of Sam Day and Jack Martin does restrict their ability to really be efficient but it’s still a decent enough attack.  The problem that the Suns has is that they really haven’t had enough help for their key position forwards so far in 2015. Brandon Matera hasn’t started the year well and outside of Matera and the 2 talls no one averages more then a goal a game this season for the Gold Coast Suns. This week they will face a slightly weakened Magpies defense with Jackson Ramsay, Ben Reid and Alan Toovey all likely to miss. At home you’d expect the Suns to get their fair share of inside 50′s it’s just a matter of whether they can worry the Pies defense enough.

The Suns have been severely hit by injuries so far in 2015 but it does seem as if they will get a few players back this week and in the coming weeks. The problem is that may be too late. This is a real must win game for the Gold Coast if they are even to be a chance of matching last year’s final ladder position, let alone improving on it. A loss here and it won’t matter when those injured players are returning as no one is making an impact after a 1-7 start to the season. They will pray that the likes of Malceski, Thompson, Lynch, Saad and Martin all come back earlier then expected but it’s very unlikely that all of those named will return. They do get a slight chance against a Pies outfit that is also injury hit especially in regards to talented players. The Suns simply have to show some fight here, it’s not so much about winning and losing now but more about showing the football world that they do care and do have a bright future indeed.

 

TIP

Both teams are banged up leading into this game so that evens the injury ledger out a fair bit. On form Collingwood should win, they’ve been competitive while losing against better teams then the Suns. Gold Coast are back home though, where they undoubtedly play their best football so by no means will this game be easy for the Magpies.

Final selection will play a huge part in regards to how strong each team is respectively but I can’t see any other result then a Collingwood win in this one.

MAGPIES BY 28 POINTS.

 

CONGRATULATIONS SCOTT PENDLEBURY 200 GAMES

Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury will play his 200th AFL this Saturday on the Gold Coast. Pendlebury, who is widely known as one of the best midfielders in the AFL has moulded himself into a strong leader also. To reach his 200th game at the age of 27 shows his reliability and durability over time. He is a champion player and loved by all Magpies fans alike. Congratulations Scott.

 

 

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