“It’s like a Grand Final” were the words spoken by Collingwood forward Travis Cloke when asked how important this coming game is for the Magpies. Collingwood has been in free fall, losing 5 of their last 6 games and for the first time in 9 seasons they could miss out on playing finals. This coming weekend they face the most vital game of their season as they welcome Port Adelaide to the MCG. The Magpies sit in 9^th spot after yet another loss, this time to the Adelaide Crows on Sunday, while Port sit in 5^th, also not in great form after a stunning first half of the season. The Power for a while found themselves on top of the ladder and at one point it looked like they might secure a top 2 spot. Something changed though and with 4 losses in their last 6 games they’ve slipped out of the top 4 and now have a fight on their hands just to get a home final. Port will see this game as a chance to get back into top form while for the Magpies it’s one last chance to keep a fading season alive. Of course these two clubs do have history of playing in big games with the 2002 Qualifying final, the 2011 preliminary final and last year’s elimination final creating a fair rivalry. The Pies won the first two of those finals but it was the Power who ended the Magpies season in spectacular fashion last year, also at the MCG. It would be kind of ironic if Port were to be once again the side that ended the Magpies hopes and dreams.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

It seemed to be all going so well for Collingwood, sitting fourth on the ladder with an 8-3 win/loss record after 11 games. Since then though almost nothing has gone to plan, with only one win in the last 6 games dropping the Magpies outside the top 8 for the first time since round 4. It leaves the Magpies on the precipice of that top 8 and a real chance of ending their finals qualifying streak at 8 seasons.

So what’s gone wrong? Some will bring injuries up as an excuse and that may be a valid point, but the Pies had injuries in the first half of the season yet were still winning games. The draw has got a little harder but when you have losses to sides like the Bulldogs and the Suns the draw can’t be used as an excuse really. The closest to an answer is that the midfield and backline have simply failed under the pressure of a long season and continued injuries. The Magpie backline is now almost completely void of experience, with Nick Maxwell retired and Nathan Brown out for the year with an injury, the only experience left was Alan Toovey and Heritier Lumumba and Toovey missed the last loss against the Crows anyway. It’s left the task to the likes of Frost, Keeffe, Williams, Langdon and Young and quite simply they are struggling. The midfield, despite some star studded players, hasn’t been performing that well either, with the Magpies now ranked 16^th for clearances and centre clearances. The loss of Dane Swan has hurt this and Luke Ball has also struggled in recent times. There seems to be no short term fix in either area so the Pies have to just endure now and somehow turn it around against Port this weekend.

There will be some good news with Toovey and Ball almost certain to return after missing the game vs the Crows. Ball will be welcomed back with open arms into a midfield that apart from young Taylor Adams struggled to win the contested ball in last weekend’s loss. Also in contention to return are several who played in the VFL loss at Frankston on Sunday. Alex Fasolo, Sam Dwyer, Josh Thomas, Tony Armstrong and Brodie Grundy will all come into consideration for senior promotion.  It is the healthiest the Magpies list has been in a while so at least for now it seems the coaching staff actually have some choices at selection for this crucial game.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Port Adelaide started the year in sensational fashion continuing on from their impressive end to the 2013 season. In fact after 12 rounds Port found themselves two games clear on top of the ladder and a top 4 spot, and maybe even premiership contention looked a possibility. Since then though, not unlike Collingwood, it’s all fallen apart with only two wins in their last six games dropping them outside the top four for the first time in season 2014. Some have blamed this downturn in form on a heavy training load but maybe it’s got more to do with a young team struggling to cope with the pressure and intensity that comes with a long AFL season. The bye will no doubt have helped in this regard and if the Power can regain their top form they will be a very tough opponent for Collingwood indeed.

The Power midfield is strong and very effective, in fact it’s in the top 6  in the league for clearances, centre clearances and contested possessions, and that’s even after a drop in form. It’s no shock that this midfield grouping works well together too when you see the names that are involved in it. Leading from the front is Travis Boak but he’s ably assisted by Kane Cornes, Ollie Wines, Robbie Gray, Brad Ebert, Hamish Hartlett and Jared Polec. The ruck is also an area in the middle that Port will look to exploit Collingwood with the Pies ranked 3^rd last for hitouts, although the Power are down to one recognised ruck in Matthew Lobbe due to injury. Lobbe will go up against Jarrod Witts in a battle that will be important to the outcome of the game. Port will be confident of winning the midfield contests, they have to really if they are going to win this game.

Port has struggled to put a big score on the board during their recent form slump with only Jay Schulz continuing the early season form that saw the Power forward line look like one of the most dangerous  in the AFL. Schulz is fighting Lance Franklin for the Coleman medal now it seems, but he is lacking support. Chad Wingard’s form has dropped off a bit and the assistance from the midfield in scoring has also dried up. Justin Westhoff was in good form also but he’s been forced to play the secondary ruck role recently and just like Jesse White for the Pies it’s restricted his influence on the scoreboard. The Power do run into a Magpie backline though that is struggling, giving up on average 24 more points in the last 6 games than it was in the first 11. The probable return of Angus Monfries will be a boost to the inconsistent Port forward line though and if he plays he may be just that one player too many for the Pies defense to cover.

The Power backline is unheralded and under rated by many but it gets the job done. Port rank 5^th for points conceded and if not for the recent 126 total let through against Richmond they would rank even higher. In fact that was the first time this season that anyone had scored 100 points against this backline. The three main talls in defense are Carlile, Hombsch and O’Shea and together they have done a great job so far this season. Port also don’t lack for run out of defense with the likes of Pittard, Jonas, Polec, Impey and the defensive midfield mindset giving the Power one of the better rebounding setups in the AFL. They run into a Collingwood forward line that has looked disjointed all year and even though they now have Reid, Cloke and Elliott together for the first time this season it still isn’t the most threatening attack in the AFL. The Power will back themselves to restrict the Pies forward line to a low enough score to ensure that they come away with the win here.

When you look at the probably Port line-up on paper it’s obvious why they were once on top of the ladder and looked like a genuine premiership contender. What isn’t so obvious is why they’ve dropped form so sharply with injuries not really playing a massive part. There is little doubt that the bye will help there though with Carlile and Monfries likely to return and Trengove only a few weeks away. If the Power still have hopes of finishing in a top 4 position they need to win a game like this against a struggling Magpies outfit.

TIP

On form there’s not a lot separating these two teams with both right in the middle of massive form slumps. Both teams though are likely to get key players back from injury which may see a sharp improvement in form. The final between these two last year was hotly contested right up until the last few minutes and you’d expect this game to be the same. I can’t see either side running away with a big win and it’s certain the Pies will fight this one out to the end given it really is their last chance.

I think that desperation and a little confidence boost with the return of Ball and Toovey along with an extra week under Reid and Elliott’s feet will see the Pies win a close game and keep their season alive.

PIES BY 8 POINTS.

VFL

After a disappointing loss at Frankston on Sunday the Collingwood VFL team heads home to Victoria Park to host the Box Hill Hawks on Saturday. Game time is 1pm.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 19 – Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - All comments

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